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} .gallery-date { font-size: 12px; color: #aaa; text-align: right; } </style> ###### tags: `HomePage` ## 預測與解釋:統計學的本質 如果說**統計學(statistics)** 的目的是為了幫助研究者、政策制定者進行決策,那麼學習統計學便是**提升決策的品質**。我們常常會面臨許多數據,卻苦無理論能夠解釋、描述,但是藉由簡單的敘述統計,便可以透過簡單的圖表讓閱聽人了解複雜且龐大的數據與資料;另一方面,統計學亦可以透過「檢定」的方式,提供決策者一項數學上的嚴謹依據。 統計學的延伸——**計量經濟學(econometrics)** 則是提供理論一項實證(positive)上的基礎。若理論與現實生活不符合,這個理論雖有其存在之必要性,但因其無法貼近生活,因此在解釋力方面仍稍顯不足。我們可以在面對不同的情境底下,建立迴歸模型、時間序列分析、橫斷面分析...等等,幫助研究者與政策制定者進行預測與解釋。 ## 選擇的科學:經濟學背後的運作邏輯 Lionel Robbins 在 "*An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science*" 一書中提到: > *Here, then, is the unity of subject of Economic Science, the forms assumed by human behaviour in disposing of scarce means.* 作為一個在有限資源底下進行慾望無窮的選擇,固然是人類的本質,而經濟學便是針對人類的選擇進行研究,從**個體經濟學(microeconomics)** 的供需模型、無異曲線分析、廠商理論,到總體經濟學的經濟成長理論、景氣波動、國際金融、貨幣銀行學,都是我們人類各種選擇下的結果。 ## 探索世界的各種數字:數據與資料分析 數據分析與資料分析可以說是統計學與經濟學的應用。在電腦尚未發明以前,人們對於大量的數字運算必定抱有一定程度的敬畏(~~能不碰就不碰~~),儘管研究者手邊有數據,但由於運算量實在太大,因此無法有效地進行剖析。 然而隨著科技的進步,電腦與大數據的出現確確實實地幫助研究者解決運算複雜的問題,同時也能夠透過程式語言的協助,建立模型預測研究者有興趣的變數。 ## 筆記傳送門 <h3><a href='https://hackmd.io/@yueswater/StatAndEconometrics' target="_self">統計學與計量經濟學</a></h3> <h3><a href='https://hackmd.io/@yueswater/numerical_method' target="_self">經濟計量與數值分析方法</a></h3> <h3><a href='https://hackmd.io/@yueswater/stats_and_deep_learning' target="_self">統計學習與深度學習</a></h3>