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--- title: 常見錯誤與盲點 - 任務派票 tags: 入門, 任務派票 --- # 常見錯誤 - 任務派票 ## 沒有吸收並解讀資訊流與時間序 * 1-2, 1-3 甚至 1-4 當成 1-1 派票 * 3-4 只考慮 3-1 ~ 3-3 的派票 (你的 1-1 ~ 2-5 呢????) * 只考慮任務結果, 沒考慮湖中 * 只考慮湖中, 沒考慮任務結果 ## 思考派票時把每一次派票當成獨立資訊 * 錯誤的解讀方式 * 在 1-4 時: {1-1} + {1-2} + {1-3} * 在 3-1 時: {1-1~1-5} + {2-1~2-5} + 湖中 * 正確的解讀方式 * {1-1} => {1-1, 1-2} => {1-1, 1-2, 1-3} => ... ## 派票時不會思考 * 給組合只憑無腦感覺 * 沒有思考, 甚至只會丟一句"阿我就忠臣什麼都不知道" * 不要輪到自己才思考, 要先思考每個人的動作並解讀意涵 * 學會認錯修正, 調整自己的視角與區間 ## 過多假設 * 太多假設容易失焦, 一位玩家不是好人就是壞人 * 分歧點選好後, 邏輯線走到底並做選擇 ## 無腦跟隨派一模一樣的玩家 = 疊票 * 前面都派67, 輪到自己秒派: x67! * 前面都派8, 輪到自己秒派: x8y! * 前面看起來都像能力者, 隨便找一個跟看看 ## 無腦跟隨派一模一樣的組合 = 照派 * 什麼情況下會照派? * 任務成功的組合 * 能力者想鞏固組合的時候 * [牌局範例: 照派/跟派](https://hackmd.io/y_Mn2qNeRWO9DuVHr__PDg?view) ## 忘記先後順序 * B 組合派票發生在 A 事件之後 * A 事件可以是外白內黑 * A 事件最直觀就是某玩家派了某隊伍組合改變了 B 的資訊 * 思考時卻只考慮為什麼單看 B 組合很奇怪/畸形 * 有可能是因為 B 本身是任務內玩家 * 或是 B 是受到前面派票影響 ## 邏輯互斥 * 根據某些前提(假設), 發現區間/好壞/邏輯到某一步會產生分歧 * 怕走向錯誤分岐於是兩邊都走走看 * 而這些分歧通常是邏輯上完全互斥的 * 例如: 50全好 vs 50至少一壞 * 例如: 一壞帶兩好 vs 壞人疊隊友 * 最經典範例: * 派西分不出雙拇指於是兩邊給的資訊都採信一部分 + 自己選選看 * 1 拇指給 367, 5 拇指給 458 * 派西 0 家決定選 2680 認為自己獨立思考棒棒 ## 想法矛盾或人選遺漏 * 認 A 好, 也認為 A 派的人偏好, 任務選擇卻沒有 A * 例如: A 派 A368 * 7 認 A 好, 也認 A368 好, 但 7 卻派 3678 * 認 A 好, 卻沒派 A 視角中的鐵好 * 例如: 第一局 150 oox, 第二局 2370 ooxx, 0>8 x * 這時 0 視角 49 為兩鐵好 => 因此派 0 必派 49 ## 區間數量/區間內壞人數量/壞人總數量過多 * 以 10 人局為例, 整個遊戲最多就是 4 個壞人, 區間最多也就是 4 個 * 區間總數一般也不會有 4 個, 只會有 2~3 個 * 區間內人數過多也沒有意義 (或是通常會用其他更有效率的表達方式) * 五個玩家至少三壞 = 剩下五個最多一壞 * 六個玩家有三壞 = 其餘四個玩家有一壞 * 七個玩家有四壞 = 三個鐵好 * 如果組合是根據排除壞人法 * 當算出了第 5 個壞人,表示一定至少有一個壞人是錯的 ## 認為別人有讀心術 * 希望人家可以讀出你的派票有第四五六七八九層的涵義 * 梅林: 我第四局故意包一個模糊的壞人湖另一個鐵好, 是為了躲刺, 幫我拔掉那個模糊的壞人! * 派西: 我派兩根拇指, 是為了讓你們找到我是派西的時候, 不會刺另一根拇指! * 刺客: 我連藏兩局就是因為要讓隊友以為我是莫德, 所以莫德知道我連藏兩局了就要變刺客! * 忠臣: 我外灑是為了表示我的決心, 我要認錯, 就算我撒的不是全好快來認我好人! ## 過度重視資料庫/人設/狀態 * 我看過他壞人藏, 所以他尾派派過就是要拔!!! * 我看過他壞人外灑全好, 所以他外灑就是白!!! * 他上次好人有積極反抗, 他沒積極反抗一定是壞人!!! * 他上次壞人被湖沒有反駁, 這次反駁了一定是好人!!! * 湖中猶豫了才說結果, 怎麼可能是好人!!! * 湖中毫不猶豫又很驚訝, 一定是好人!!! ## 好人能力者不夠相信/過度相信雜魚 * 在不用開能力的時候能力全開 * 在該開能力的時候繼續演雜魚 ## 壞人活在自己世界 * 出賣隊友, 賣好賣滿: 我給你全好給你全世界!!! * 壞人尾派只想著任務失敗沒想過如何幫助隊友 ## 鐵頭堅持完全不考慮修正 * 全場都把你丟在外面,你還認為自己沒有選錯 * 可以堅持自己的看法,但也要思考過自己修正的可能 * 任務結果顯示你的視角跟想法是錯的,依然相信自己的前提沒錯 ## 解決不了黑球,就解決開黑的人 * 幾乎沒有改變組合, 只是把內黑的人拔掉 * 舉例: * 9內黑 489, 5: 那我派 458! * 9內黑 4679, 7: 那我派 1467! ## 心胸寬大, 無限容忍 * A 外白 B 黑的組合,B 卻認為 A 是白錯的雜魚好人 * 第一局 350 oox, 第二局 1890 ooxx, 0 湖 1 壞, 2 家認為 0是雷包雜魚於是派 2490 ## 尾派的選擇考慮不周全 * 不是只考慮派全好 * 考慮這個組合如果出現失敗, 哪些前提/區間/陣營身分要做修正 * 後續的發展 (包括湖中)

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