In today's world, governments often grapple with outdated systems, making the introduction of innovative governance models a daunting task. These entrenched systems not only resist change but also harbor inherent flaws, such as the human alignment problem, where individual actions are driven by self-interest rather than the collective good. Historical events, like wars sparked by the selfish ambitions of leaders, underscore the dire consequences of misaligned governance.
Futarchy, a concept proposed by economist Robin Hanson, has gained attention as an innovative governance model that combines democratic voting on values with betting markets on beliefs to decide policies. This model is based on the premise that betting markets are efficient at aggregating diverse information, making them potentially effective at predicting the outcomes of policies in terms of their impact on national welfare. The idea is that if a betting market clearly estimates a policy would increase expected national welfare, then that policy would be adopted.
The concept of futarchy has not only been explored in academic discussions but has also been applied practically within blockchain and Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) communities. These real-world applications test the principles of futarchy in various scenarios. For a more in-depth and scholarly examination of futarchy, Robin Hanson's paper "Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?" is highly recommended. Additionally, a summary and critical analysis of Hanson's paper can provide valuable insights and takeaways from his proposal.
How Futarchy Works
Futarchy leverages the wisdom of the crowd through a betting mechanism aligned with the overarching goals of a community or organization. To illustrate, let's consider a community focused on enhancing residents' wellness.
Step 0: Establish a Community Goalimage