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title: Scientific Reasoning 2021
tags: teach
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# Scientific Reasoning

### Dr. Joe Lau

Philosophy Dept @ HKU
HKU MAO
2021 Online Summer Programme
Homepage: http://joelau.github.io
Slides: https://hackmd.io/@joelau/2021-MAO

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## Scientific reasoning

* A kind of thinking process.
* Aim: Empirical theories and predictions.
* Creative thinking
* Critical thinking (clarity, rationality)

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## Scientific reasoning for scientists

* Probability: Bayes theorem, base rate fallacy
* Statistics: t-test, ANOVA
* Experimental procedures: double-blind studies

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## Scientific reasoning for everyone

* Technology and health
* General problem solving
* Avoiding biases and indoctrination
* Living a happy and meaningful life

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## A warmup question

# Do UFOs exist?

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# VIP #1 - Be clear

* Avoid jumping to conclusion
* Pay close attention to language.
* Clarify key terms
* Many concepts are obscure / ambiguous
* Many confuse lack of clarity with profundity.

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## A HKU social science thesis


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## Be clear, and also succinct


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## Be precise and concise

* They are not the same!
* Use simple words where possible.
* Delete whatever that is not necessary.
* Organize your ideas systematically.
* Rewrite, rewrite, rewrite.

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## Things to read

* Critical Thinking Web: http://philosophy.hku.hk/think (See "Meaning analysis")
* Lau (2011) [*An Introduction to Critical Thinking and Creativity: Think More, Think Better*](https://amzn.to/3ia362t). Wiley.
* Chinese translation: 劉彥方 (2018) 《批判性思维与创造力：越思考越会思考》 学林出版社。

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## Quote from Einstein?


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## Einstein did say this:

>What science strives for is an utmost acuteness and clarity of concepts

"The Common Language of Science" (1941)

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## Einstein's *Annus Mirabilis*

Four profound papers in 1905:

* Photoelectric effect
* Brownian motion
* E=mc²
* Special relativity

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## Einstein on Hume (1711-1776)

>Hume, whose *Treatise of Human Nature* I had studied avidly and with admiration shortly before discovering the theory of relativity. It is very possible that without these philosophical studies I would not have arrived at the solution.

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## Rejection of absolute simultaneity

>The type of critical reasoning required for the discovery of this central point [the denial of absolute time, that is, the denial of absolute simultaneity] was decisively furthered, in my case, especially by the reading of David Hume’s and Ernst Mach’s philosophical writings.

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## Einstein on philosophy

>So many people today - and even professional scientists - seem to me like somebody who has seen thousands of trees but has never seen a forest.

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>A knowledge of the historic and philosophical background gives that kind of ***independence from prejudices*** of his generation from which most scientists are suffering.

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>This independence created by philosophical insight is - in my opinion - the mark of distinction between a mere artisan or specialist and a real seeker after truth.

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# VIP #2 - Be an independent thinker

* Scientific progress is not linear
* Conformity is a powerful force
* Value of independent, critical thinking
* Importance of self-understanding

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## A quiz

Namibia is a country in Africa. What is the population of Namibia? Is it above or below 100 million?


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## Cognitive biases

* Anchoring
* Confirmation bias
* Over-confidence

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## How to avoid biases?

* Focus on the reasons
* Seek alternative theories and counterexamples
* Learn from good role models
* Review your track record
* Emotional maturity

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## Russell's advice to 2959

{%youtube ihaB8AFOhZo %}

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>I should like to say two things, one intellectual and one moral. The intellectual thing I should want to say is this:

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> When you are studying any matter, ... Never let yourself be diverted either by what you wish to believe, or by what you think would have beneficent social effects if it were believed. But look only, and solely, at what are the facts. ...

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## Science and social culture

* Lack of certainty.
* Scientific progress is evolutionary.
* Great ideas often started as heresies.
* Respectful and rational disagreement.
* Respect of truth over authority and tradition.

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## Russell's second thing

>The moral thing I should wish to say … I should say love is wise, hatred is foolish. In this world which is getting more closely interconnected we have to learn to tolerate each other, we have to learn to put up with the fact that some people say things that we don't like.

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>We can only live together in that way and if we are to live together and not die together we must learn a kind of charity and a kind of tolerance which is absolutely vital to the continuation of human life on this planet.

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## Additional reading

*How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age*. By Lewis Vaughn and Theodore Schick. (8th edition, 2019)


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## Philosophy

* 劉彥方 (2021) [《哲食之道》](https://shop.oupchina.com.hk/collections/%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%B8-%E6%96%87%E5%AD%B8-1/products/9789888747948) 牛津大學出版社