Macao Bulk Markets Down 4.8% In Q1: Official Data

Macau's mass-market casino gross gaming revenue (GGR), including mass-table games, slots and live multi-games, fell 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year. In the first quarter of 2015, these revenues fell 27.0% year-on-year.

The VIP baccarat GGR also showed a slowdown in the decline in the sector, although the bottom was depleted. These GGRs were down 19.3% year-over-year in the first three months of 2016, according to data from the city's gaming regulator released on Friday. In the first quarter of 2015, VIP Baccarat GGR decreased by 42.1% year-on-year.

The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau already reported on April 1 that casino gross GGR in the first quarter of 2016 was down 13.3% year-over-year. Friday's figures show sales by game product segment.

The mass market GGR for the first quarter of 2016 was just over 25.79 billion MOPs ($3.23 billion). This compares to nearly 27.11 billion MOPs in the same period last year.

VIP BACARA REVENUE FOR THE PERIOD WAS MOP 30.38 BILLION MOPS, COMPARED TO MOP 37.67 BILLION MOPS IN Q1 2015.

VIP play accounted for 54.1% of all casino GGRs, compared to 58.2% in the first quarter of 2015.

The popular market baccarat accounted for 33.8% of the total casino GGR, or MOP 19.01 billion. In other words, all kinds of live dealers Baka accounted for 87.9% of all Macau casino gaming revenue.

In the first quarter of 2016, slot machine GGR was approximately 2.86 billion MOPs, down 1.7% from approximately 2.91 billion MOPs a year earlier.

Live multi-games, an electronic table game category that uses live dealers but uses electronically recorded betting and betting payments, increased 1.9% Y/Y from MOP 537 million to MOP 547 million in Q1 2015.

"Re-classification" question

Brokerage Union Gaming Securities Asia Ltd estimated in a note on Friday that when adjusting the "table reclassification" of the Macau market, mass market casino GGR likely actually grew year-on-year in the quarter.

"Table reclassification" means re-designating a table as 'VIP' rather than 'Popular Market' to allow smoking on the table side. The current smoking regulations in Macau apply to casinos. Despite this reclassification, players who bet on these tables often do so in multiples more commonly associated with so-called "premium mass" market segments than traditional VIP segments, for cash only rather than credit-based rolling chip systems used in traditional VIP gambling. Some investment analysts said the cloud is important for understanding the true breakdown between Macau's mass market and VIP play.

Union Gaming analyst Grant Govten said, "Given that table game reclassification underestimated bulk performance by 700 to 1,000 base points since late 2014, we estimate that volume/slot GGR actually grew by about 3-4% year-on-year in Q1 2016 after adjusting this effect. This represents a year-on-year growth in the mass market in the first quarter of 2014."

"We expect this trajectory to continue into 2016 and are biased towards the upside as it relates to our forecast for mass market GGR growth of 7% to 8% in 2016," the note added. 온라인 슬롯

According to the gaming bureau, mass market casino GGRs, including live dealer table games, slots and live multi-games, increased 35.2% Y/Y in the first quarter of 2014. The department does not display in the data whether table reclassification is considered when arriving at the aggregation of VIP table games versus popular market games.

Union Gaming, referring to data from the first quarter of 2016, said. "Baccarat 'only' accounted for 88% of the total GGR in Q1 2016, making it the fourth consecutive quarter at this level. Prior to this, bakara has always accounted for 91% or 92% since 2010. It gives us a slightly more diverse customer base."