This is the core of modern rate-cycle psychology — and one of the most important mental models in macro trading.
Why Do Markets Think the Fed Will Cut After Hiking?
Let’s walk through it step by step like you're running a macro fund:
1. Fed Hikes to Control Inflation
When inflation is too high, the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate.
This makes borrowing more expensive:Mortgage rates go up.
Credit card debt costs more.
Companies delay hiring and investment.