https://teams.live.com/meet/9348167702502?p=wiAEFIUlAmfaOUKE3v

https://www.tastylive.com/shows/market-measures/episodes/puts-vs-put-ratios-06-02-2022

Your **Refined Plan: $30 Width, 21-Day Close** is already a solid framework for hedging your 10-15 SPY short strangles against 10-20% SPX drops (10% to $510.30, 15% to $481.95, 20% to $453.60 from $567), aiming to cover 50-70% ($6,750-$11,200) of a $13,500-$16,000 loss with a $500/month budget. Now, you want to mix in **VIX calls** or **VXX calls** to lower capital use and protect against broader market crashes—not just SPX-related ones. Let’s explore how to integrate these volatility instruments into your plan, keeping it simple, cost-effective, and aligned with your goals.

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### Why VIX or VXX Calls?
- **VIX Calls**: These are options on the CBOE Volatility Index, which measures 30-day implied volatility of SPX options. VIX spikes during market crashes (e.g., from 12 to 85 in 2020), offering a hedge against volatility surges, including non-SPX events (e.g., geopolitical shocks impacting broader markets). They’re cash-settled and tied to VIX futures, not spot VIX.
- **VXX Calls**: VXX is an ETN tracking short-term VIX futures (1-2 month roll). It’s less volatile than VIX but still rises with volatility spikes, providing exposure to VIX moves with lower capital outlay per contract. It’s tradable like a stock, making it accessible but subject to contango decay.
- **Lower Capital**: Both can amplify gains relative to cost (e.g., a $1 VIX call could gain $10+ in a crash), reducing the need for multiple $30-width spreads ($120 each) while maintaining protection.

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### Revised Plan: Mixing $30 Width with VIX/VXX Calls

#### Core Plan Recap
- **SPY Spreads**: Buy 1 weekly $30-width put spread (10 delta buy, e.g., $510/$480), $120 each, 30 DTE, close after 21 days, keep 4 active ($480/month).
- **Protection**: $4,400-$11,600 (33-86%) for 10-20% drops with 4 spreads.
- **Flat/Up Risk**: $40-$200/month.

#### Adding VIX or VXX Calls
- **Goal**: Replace 1-2 of the 4 SPY spreads with VIX or VXX calls to cut capital use (from $480 to $360-$400/month) and broaden crash protection (beyond SPX to Nasdaq, small caps, etc.).
- **Instrument**:
- **VIX Call**: Buy 1 slightly out-of-the-money (OTM) call (e.g., 25-30% OTM, ~$1-$2 cost), 30 DTE, close after 21 days.
- **VXX Call**: Buy 1 OTM call (e.g., 20-30% OTM, ~$0.50-$1 cost), 30 DTE, close after 21 days.
- **Cost**: $50-$200/month for 1-2 calls, depending on VIX level and strike.

#### New Mix
- **Option 1: 3 SPY Spreads + 1 VIX Call**
- 3 spreads x $120 = $360/month.
- 1 VIX call (e.g., $20 strike when VIX is 15) ≈ $1-$2 ($100-$200).
- Total: $460-$560/month (adjust VIX strike to fit $500 cap).
- **Option 2: 3 SPY Spreads + 1 VXX Call**
- 3 spreads x $120 = $360/month.
- 1 VXX call (e.g., $20 strike when VXX is 15) ≈ $0.50-$1 ($50-$100).
- Total: $410-$460/month (well under $500).
- **Execution**:
- Buy 3 SPY spreads weekly (e.g., $510/$480, $508/$478, $506/$476).
- Buy 1 VIX or VXX call weekly, laddering to maintain 4 hedges (e.g., 30, 23, 16, 9 DTE).
- Close all after 21 days, replace with new positions.

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### Payoff Scenarios (4 Hedges: 3 SPY + 1 VIX/VXX Call)

#### Assumptions
- SPY $567, VIX 15, VXX 15 (March 28, 2025).
- VIX call: $20 strike ($1.50, $150).
- VXX call: $20 strike ($0.75, $75).
- Crash over 7-21 days, VIX spikes (e.g., 30, 45, 60), VXX follows (~50-70% of VIX).

#### 10% SPX Drop (SPY $510.30)
- **3 SPY Spreads**: $3,300-$4,200 (3 x $1,100-$1,400, Day 21).
- **1 VIX Call**: VIX to 25-30, call ≈ $5-$10 ($500-$1,000).
- **1 VXX Call**: VXX to 20-25, call ≈ $2-$5 ($200-$500).
- **Total**:
- VIX: $3,800-$5,200 (28-39%).
- VXX: $3,500-$4,700 (26-35%).
- **Vs. 4 Spreads**: $4,400-$5,600 (33-42%)—slightly less but broader coverage.

#### 15% SPX Drop (SPY $481.95)
- **3 SPY Spreads**: $7,200-$8,100 (3 x $2,400-$2,700).
- **1 VIX Call**: VIX to 40-45, call ≈ $20-$25 ($2,000-$2,500).
- **1 VXX Call**: VXX to 28-32, call ≈ $8-$12 ($800-$1,200).
- **Total**:
- VIX: $9,200-$10,600 (57-79%).
- VXX: $8,000-$9,300 (50-69%).
- **Vs. 4 Spreads**: $9,600-$10,800 (60-80%)—comparable, with VIX slightly better.

#### 20% SPX Drop (SPY $453.60) + Non-SPX Crash
- **3 SPY Spreads**: $8,400-$8,700 (3 x $2,800-$2,900).
- **1 VIX Call**: VIX to 55-60, call ≈ $35-$40 ($3,500-$4,000).
- **1 VXX Call**: VXX to 35-40, call ≈ $15-$20 ($1,500-$2,000).
- **Total**:
- VIX: $11,900-$12,700 (74-94%).
- VXX: $9,900-$10,700 (62-79%).
- **Vs. 4 Spreads**: $11,200-$11,600 (70-86%)—VIX exceeds, VXX matches.
- **Non-SPX Crash**: If Nasdaq or small caps crash (SPY flat), VIX/VXX still rise (e.g., VIX to 30, VXX to 20), adding $500-$1,500 from the call while SPY spreads lag.

#### Flat/Up (SPY $567-$578)
- **3 SPY Spreads**: $30-$150 (3 x $10-$50).
- **1 VIX/VXX Call**: Near worthless ($0-$25).
- **Total**: $30-$175/month (6-35%)—lower than $40-$200 with 4 spreads.

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### Capital Use Comparison
- **Original**: 4 SPY spreads = $480/month.
- **3 SPY + 1 VIX**: $460-$560 (reduce VIX strike/cost to $100 for $460).
- **3 SPY + 1 VXX**: $410-$460 (easily fits $500).
- **Savings**: $20-$70/month (4-15%), or $5-$17/week—modest but frees capital for other trades.

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### Does It Meet Your Goals?
- **50-70% Protection**:
- 15%: $8,000-$10,600 (50-79%)—yes.
- 20%: $9,900-$12,700 (62-94%)—yes, VIX overshoots.
- 10%: $3,500-$5,200 (26-39%)—below 50%, like original.
- **Broader Crashes**: VIX/VXX calls kick in for non-SPX volatility (e.g., tech selloffs, global events), unlike SPY spreads alone.
- **Capital**: Drops from $480 to $410-$460, saving $20-$70/month.

---

### Easy-to-Read Mixed Plan: 3 SPY + 1 VXX Call
#### Why VXX Over VIX?
- Cheaper ($75 vs. $150), fits $500 cap easily, tracks VIX futures with less leverage but still effective.

#### What You Do
- **Buy Weekly**:
- 3 SPY spreads ($120 each, 10 delta buy, $30 lower sell, 30 DTE).
- 1 VXX call (20-30% OTM, ~$0.75-$1, $75-$100, 30 DTE).
- Total: $435-$460/month.
- **Hold**: 4 hedges (e.g., 30, 23, 16, 9 DTE).
- **Close**: After 21 days, replace each with new positions.

#### What You Get
- **10% Drop**: $3,500-$4,700 (26-35%).
- **15% Drop**: $8,000-$9,300 (50-69%).
- **20% Drop**: $9,900-$10,700 (62-79%).
- **Non-SPX Crash**: $800-$2,000+ from VXX if VIX spikes, even if SPY holds.
- **Flat/Up**: Lose $30-$175/month (6-35%).

#### Cheat Sheet
- **Cost**: $435-$460/month (under $500).
- **Risk**: $175 max/month if flat.
- **Wins**: 50-70% at 15-20% SPX drops, plus non-SPX protection.

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### Final Thoughts
Mixing 3 SPY spreads with 1 VXX call lowers your capital use ($435-$460 vs. $480) and adds protection against broader market crashes (e.g., Nasdaq, global volatility), while still hitting 50-70% at 15-20% SPX drops. VXX is cheaper and simpler than VIX calls, avoiding the higher premiums and leverage quirks of VIX futures. If you want more non-SPX coverage, lean toward 2 SPY + 2 VXX calls ($340-$440/month), but 3+1 balances cost and SPX focus. Sound good?

_Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one._

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https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CRDO/credo-technology/stock-price-history

# Earnings Moves Analysis and Prediction Report

Using the provided CSV file containing historical stock price data with columns 'date', 'open', 'high', 'low', and 'close', analyze the stock price moves following earnings announcements. Identify quarterly earnings dates within the CSV’s date range and generate a report with the following sections based on all available years of data. Identify the stock price by today's price with exclusively from verified, publicly available sources.

## 1. Historical Earnings Moves

- Identify quarterly earnings announcement dates exclusively from verified, publicly available sources (e.g., Abercrombie & Fitch’s investor relations website at corporate.abercrombie.com, official press releases, or reputable financial websites like Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, or MarketWatch). Cross-check each date across multiple sources to confirm accuracy and ensure it corresponds to an actual earnings release.
- Do not infer, predict, or assume earnings dates based on patterns, CSV data, or any other unverified means; use only dates explicitly tied to confirmed announcements.
- Identify quarterly earnings announcement dates solely from verified sources (e.g., corporate.abercrombie.com, SEC filings, Yahoo Finance). Cross-check each date with at least two sources. Do not assume or infer dates from the CSV or patterns. Exclude any date not explicitly confirmed, even if within the CSV’s range. For each earnings event, use only ‘open’ prices from the CSV, ensuring both earnings day and next-day data are available. If next-day data is missing (e.g., beyond February 28, 2025), skip that quarter entirely.”
- For each earnings event, calculate:
- **Signed Move (%)** = \(\frac{\text{Next Day Open} - \text{Earnings Day Open}}{\text{Earnings Day Open}} \times 100\)
- **Absolute Move (%)** = \(\left| \frac{\text{Next Day Open} - \text{Earnings Day Open}}{\text{Earnings Day Open}} \right| \times 100\)
- Present the results in a table with the following columns:
- Earnings Date
- Quarter (e.g., Q1 FY2025)
- Earnings Day Open Date
- Earnings Day Open ($)
- Next Day Open Date
- Next Day Open ($)
- Signed Move (%)
- Absolute Move (%)
- Exclude any quarters where:
- Earnings dates are not explicitly confirmed by reliable sources.
- Earnings dates fall outside the CSV’s date range (September 26, 1996, to February 28, 2025).
- Next-day price data is unavailable in the CSV.
- Provide a collapsed version of the table for quick reference, remember to display the last earning date.

## 2. Statistical Analysis
- Use a table to provide both **signed moves** and **absolute moves**, calculate:
- Mean
- Median
- Q1 Mean( Meaning use only Q1 Earning price)
- Q2 Mean( Meaning use only Q2 Earning price)
- Q3 Mean( Meaning use only Q3 Earning price)
- Q4 Mean( Meaning use only Q4 Earning price)
- Largest Move
- Use a table to provide frequency distributions:
- For **absolute moves**: 0–5%, 5–10%, 10–15%, >15%
- For **signed moves**: < -15%, -15% to -10%, -10% to -5%, -5% to 0%, 0% to 5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 15%, >15%
- Note the total number of earnings events analyzed.

## 3. Highest Probability Bet
- Given a set of stock price movement ranges and their associated probabilities, identify the range with the highest probability of occurring. Evaluate both individual ranges (e.g., -5% to 0%, 0% to 5%) and combined adjacent ranges (e.g., -5% to 0% and 0% to 5% as -5% to 5%). For combined ranges, calculate the probability by summing the probabilities of the adjacent ranges. Only combine ranges that are adjacent, not overlapping or non-adjacent. Consider all possible combinations of adjacent ranges to ensure the highest probability is identified. Report the individual range with the highest probability and, if different, the combined adjacent range with the highest probability, along with their probabilities. For example, if -5% to 0% has a 30% probability and 0% to 5% has a 40% probability, the combined range -5% to 5% would have a probability of 70%. If 70% is the highest, report it as the highest probability bet.
- do it for Absolute Moves and signed moves.
- Use a table to display the above information

## 5. Constraints
- Use only "open" prices from the uploaded CSV; do not estimate missing values.
- Include both signed and absolute moves in the analysis.
- Ensure earnings dates align with the stock’s fiscal year and the CSV’s date range.
- Hide the Full Table of the price
- Hide all the formula
- tidy up the report and make it easy to read
- do not show any "Notes"
- Identify its Sector and Industry according to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), sourced from the company’s investor relations website or Nasdaq.com.
List the top 5 large-cap stocks (by market capitalization) in the same Sector and Industry, based on current market cap as of today. Use Nasdaq.com or company filings for market cap data.
- Skip the introduction of the report and Data source etc.
- the analysis should cover all verifiable earnings events within the provided CSV’s date range
- show me all the referenced sources link and indicate what data are referenced for. (eg. https://xxxxxxx.com/xxx.html - earning date)
- Do not infer, predict, or assume earnings dates based on patterns, CSV data, or any other unverified means; use only dates explicitly tied to confirmed announcements. do confirm you do not iolated this rule!!!!!!!!!!!!

Show the report on this page based on the uploaded CSV and these specifications.

=--------------------------------=

- Based on the frequency distribution of **signed moves**, identify the range with the highest probability (e.g., 0% to 5%) and its probability.
- Based on the frequency distribution of **absolute moves**, identify the range with the highest probability (e.g., 1% to 5%) and its probability.
- Dispay the price related to % as well. (eg: 0% to 5% ($1 to $5))
- You must use combined range as well. you can only combine two frequency distributions (eg. 5% - 15% or -5% - 5% with the highest probability ). i need both combined absolute move and The combined signed move.