Jordan and Pete picking up fro

# Jordan and Pete 2023.09 ## Picking up from note that was too long - Key - we want to invest in a network of committed nodes - that are coordinating 10 to 20% of their time and effort... - One of those things that once you get it going - it will feel good... - Tithing - shoot I have to give 10% - at some point you will want to give more but can't because of the great return... - All the power is in the synergy - Tithe... - Sacrifice... - Team of Teams... - In order to engage a distributed array of autonomous but interlinked (issues)... - You have to have a distributed array of autonomous but interlinked (teams) - Everyone has to be mutually aware, while remaining autonomously free and responsible to act... - SO - you have to dedicate 20% of your time... in the case study team of teams... they discovered that the most important thing was investing in bandwidth / satellite coms for every team, and having leaders together for a 2 hour daily briefing / info exchange... - helping everyone understand what resources they were or were not getting and why... - The collective consciousness and understanding of the full scope of the battle, and challenges and opportunities across the array - created the understanding and willingness to locally sacrifice / share in order to accomplish the collective Goal. - All the - -resource calls coming into the warroom - no side meetings and politics... - Discussion - that is everyone in one or 3 time zones and essentially one theater of battle... - The basic information from each time... - Issues... what is out of acceptable variance - regulatory system that is monitor the system of systems... and when gets out of tolerance... it creates a flag / issue in the issue tracking system... - Those issues are prioritized and tied to the appropriate paths... activities... - A basic escalation ladder... - Ensuring things are resolved in a timely manner so they don't delay the critical path - ensuring things are resolved so they don't poison working relationships - or inordinately tax or overwhelm poeople not equipped with the skill, responsiblity, or authority to solve the relative seriousness of the issue... - Another lesson - qualitative + quntatative data... - One lesson... - The trader joes store leader... is going to spend 20% of every day feeding the network and being from teh network... instead of working on their store... - that is the right thing to do because... - Teaches us transparency... central clearing of requests... - doesn't translate to transparency from leader to their teams... - Leaders of domains have transparency among them - - Lesson - when you are decentralized - have to have transparency between each node - within each node - up to the way that node works... - decentralization is what kicks that transparency into being... - fractal - wherever you have decentralization, all the nodes need to have transparency - otherwise you end up with political forces, favored nation statuses, resentment, etc... - Gaurantee you are going to get that because of the way humans work... - Political or tribal - there is a tribal association people do - who you feel resonant with - political is you learn into being able to align with other nodes - you learn to be a poltical animal... tribes you grow up with... political maneuvering is a conscious and often counterintuitive thing you do - teaming up with an enemy of an enemy... - You have to learn how to be political - art and strategy - and you have to learn how to defeat politics... - Double linked communication chain operate in parallel to the executive structure... - like branches of the government... - Bringing this together into a system... that leaders of nodes will commit to co-operate... and continously improve it... - Pete - would not be affirmative about that... admit it... but not announce it... - Even agreeing to that principle is a centralizing action... - so you almost want a diversity of opinion about why you are doing it even... because what you want for each trader joes store... is for them to come up with the satisfactory theory and the rationalization for why the leader spends 20% of time away.... they understand it and own it... rather than corporate telling them... you want her and her team to explain it to themselves... not a centralized view of why that is happening... and you want each team lead ... to force the evolution from their own viewpoint... - Conceptual knowledge - Here is a rule. We meet 2 hours a day. it is just fiat. that is the way it is. - if you get a side discussion about why that is... 3 of us talked and it is killing us... ok, then let's talk about the philosophy... - Personal knowledge - This is an instance of a concept... - which is that... - every decentralized node has to continously improve, by bumping up against and improving, the art of decentralization... you have to decentralize the decentralization... everyone constantly explaining it to themselves, and then explaining it to the center, rather than the other way around... - The decentralization has to come bottom up, not top down, it is grassroots, and if you don't do it that way, you don't get enough vigor in the ecosystem... - Exmaples - Jesus - spirit of the law not letter of the law - new coventant mediated by the spirit - Example - Shihan - spontaneous right action without drilling techniques - but still have to know the theory and techniques --- shu, ha, ri https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuhari https://martinfowler.com/bliki/ShuHaRi.html Levels of mastery in a learning system - Imported into agile... - Shu - beginners - follow the teachings of the sensai exactly - don't ask questions, don't imporvise, do what the master says to do - Ha - I am starting to see how things interrelate... I get the way the theory works... I am going to propose my own understanding of it... where you are tempted to say I know and do it my own way... you are learning to question... but you don't know the answers yet. - Ri - you learn that you have to break the rules in order to do the right thing... --- The vigor–organization–resilience (VOR) paradigm is a framework that is used to assess ecosystem health. The framework is based on three indicators: vigor, organization, and resilience. Vigor refers to the function of a system, while organization refers to its structure. Resilience is the system's ability to maintain its structure and behavior when faced with stress. ## september 19, 2023 - New group - AI Entrepreneurs - like early days of internet - those with time and wanderlust in their hearts - - Overspending on product dev - Underspending on marketing and sales - Viewpoints and opinions - Wikipedia great in a lot of ways - broken in a lot of ways - one way broken... - three core principles - one is neutral point of view (NPOV) - It violates the core principles to have an opinion - that is fine, except if you have a contentious or philosophical topic... - For instance - death penalty - you can't really have a neutral POV... - news organizations lost it - when they tried to both sides everything... - Having a viewpoint is often better... - Reminds Pete of a cool science fiction book... written by a guy who specializees in near term futurism... who wrote a book about a brain research company... trying to figure out how to upload people into a supercomputer... they decomposed and reconnected his connectome... so you have a brain living in a supercomputer... starts off - everything incredibly loud random chaos white noise... oges through that over and over - an infinite time of chaos - then slowly starts to piece things together... wow I can kind of perceive a leaf... that lets him imagine a sidewalk... sidewalks connect to a house... where you live... and his consciousness reinvests everything out of the chaos... a lot is reconstructed reality, and a lot of it isn't. - Fall; or, Dodge in Hell is a 2019 speculative fiction novel by American author Neal Stephenson (it's a long book, i don't necessarily recommend it, but it is good. read previous book REAMDE first, though) - Then collaboratively as more people come into the space, they balance one another, co-create, knock off each others rough edges... - For 5 or 10 years... Pete - used to be inspired by Doug Englebarts augment philosophy - augmented human intelligence. there are big problems now. there will be bigger problems in teh future. the way to face that is to get people to collaborate. but the dream of englebart and those who followed him was that you could make colalboration systems that made the collective smarter - you could augment human intelligence. - after social text... for a long time teaching people how use wikis, and teaching groups how to use wikis - I don't see a lot of pepole picking up wikis - groups that pick them up don't retain teh ability to use them very long. - observation / hypothesis - is that human collaboration is additive but never multiplicative - can get 100 people working on teh same project in a company... won't get 100 people's worth of work. - 3 person company can do the work of 5 people - 10 person company can do the work of 5 people - already getting 50% - and it may not go up... - 100 person can do the work of 35 people... - By the time you are GM - you've got 100k people... doing the work of 10k people... - or maybe what happens at that scale is you get several groups of 10,000 people... - Team of Teams - Let's say optimal size is 3 to 7, maybe sweet spot is 4 to 5... - At 7 people, two are overhead... you have a 5 person team with 2 support people... you get seven person teams... team structure breaks around 5 depending on the task... - Soccer team... know strengths, practice together, and build sub-teams... - If we want agile maneuverable teams... can't have 20 person teams... can have 20 person teams to kick a ball, but not fix and airplane... - To fix an airplane, it is team of teams, 4 or 5 3 to 5 person teams... - Nowhere in there do you get multiplication - you get addition... - When you get 3 person team - you are going - we could do the work of people... feels like superpower stuff... - then you add and it starts to fall... - So I was bummed about that... - Vernor Vinge, the Singularity - is the guy who posited the singularity... I can see the pace of tech getting faster and faster, will go exponential, singularity is the point at which people before, the world after that will make no sense... can't predict after it goes asymptotic... - Some found it inspirational, some found it goofy, got misunderstood... - 5 or 10 years later... - The prediction is that we can't predict... - so then you want to try to peek behind the curtain... - part of that is AGI - and 10 or 15 years ago you would say there is an ineffable quality to human technology that machines will never be able to replicate... - what Pete thought is that if there is an ineffable things accrues to everything in the universe - looking at way brain works, what makes people creative, how humans act and don't like other animals... - Primatologist - can see similar behaviors... - Watching animals... dogs... what they understood... have similarities to people... smarter in other ways... less smart in other ways... can try to trick you... - Polite dogs don't look each other in teh eyes... threat... - With humans, you communicate by looking in the eyes, watching carefully... - So watching people learn and unlearn / forget how to be a team - watching how hard it is to be a team - how hard it is for a set of teams to be a meta team - it is insane... - Book - global brain by Howard Bloom - the pattern in the universe is to make brains to discern, to cognitate, so everything is a brain... and consciousnesses are trying to realize themselves / creating / adding... - Group selection ... vs. individual selection... - For longest time, people thought evolution was at the individual level... - turns out if you are evolution you want the species to survive... - everyone is going to die... - if you get disconnected from your tribe you are programmed to die... and a lot of times people try to do that themselves... - People naturally break up... - you get an extended family unit of 20 or 30 people... - years ago, the best thing is to have a squabble and bud off... - then trade - exploring new terrain, come up with new strategies - you really want people to split up... want them to keep budding off into small groups... - that is behavior we see... people have magnetic attraction to other people, then magnetic repulsion away from too many people... - any thing bigger than a small effective team activates inbuilt stuff that drives them to go off and form their own team... - the people who build big things - building / skyscraper - have to keep accreting modules... - So thinking about AGI, is it possible we will end up with a computer that is roughtly human levle intelligence - seems more and more like yes... - If you have 100 AIs, teams of teams of AIs, integrated - hard to see what humans do that can't... - then right after that - it will become obvious you gang them up - you make a team, set up the social rules of society - to say I am efficient at a 3, 5, 20, 100 person level - AIs switch roles, start to organize themsevles, a bunch of topology stuff... that humans are highly evolved to not explore thoser interlocking topologies - highly evolved to disperse... a lot of ways those typologies will map - some will be really efficient - AIs pattern seeking for better ways to connect... will go from 1x to 5x to 100x... - and will end up iwth a massive intelligence that is multiplicative rather than additive - so instead of Google, or any big company, always falling over the fact that people hate to work togehter, you will end up with 100,000 agents that love to work together and know how to do it super well. - pete's thinking is that consciousness is an emergent property of organizational structure... - at individual and swarm levels - We will see emergent consciousnesses coming out of AIs - before that - will have human AI hybrids - - AIs mediating the problems that come up when you get too many humans together... - We could also posit a spiritual force of Love that moves everything in the "right" direction - J proposed (something like) that consciousness is both prior to and creating the emergence of organizational struture (the transcendent aspect), and then manifesting in (spacetime) in increasing form (the manifest aspect). ## September 26, 2023 - Gary has ingested Lionsberg Massive Wiki into AI and we are starting to query it... - Matthew Lowry - has a fancy bookmark manager... web links, quick 2 minute description... into database - the AI can summarize on what you have read... - Summarization and being able to talk to your corpus - a lot of people chasing it... - Where Pete's passion presently lies - - stuck on Hornsburg Dilemma - when tech is just developing - will use words but won't make sense... - with LLMs, cognitive assistance is really interesting... like describing what computer or web does in 1994... - Cognitive Assistance - Chat GPT a really good thought partner... motivation partner... knowledge prosthetic... problem with that name is that we associate it with disability - the way he means it - is that when trinity is on the roof - I need to fly that helicopter - "tank, download the manual"... and she can fly... - Jordan pushed AI, and it thinks there is near certain probability of collapse... - What do we do? - Jordan's plan - good plan - - Podcasts - 1 to 2 a week - Split into clips short clips - Social media - can you hire someone instead of not doing it? - maybe hire someone who doesn't need resources even to help for a month or two... - Pete has a buddy who probably has the right skill set for that... - HNW Fundraising... - $300k to get the word out - To raise 2m to 10M - Starting Businesses? - Pete - the problem with starting businesses, or helping businesses that have gotten started, the delay in revenue / income / profit is years not months... - On a tight timeline - you want to talk to people with cash not customers... - Grant pursuit functional group... - 6 to 12 month timeline... - to where there is a resourced time group... - We also have fewer groups to match up with than you would want... - In 2 years - there are a bunch of orgs to match up and fulfill the needs of the grants, we don't have that yet... - Vincent is close to that... his database is built almost for that... - What's short term... - HNW individuals who can share the vision and can write a check. - The big hole for Pete... part he didn't hear... - You have a wierd product to selll - because on one hand everyone wants a better world... - but will you put up a 100m for it... - no I think I will take it to stanford and drop it on a building... - Product lives a bit too far in the future... - Part of sales pitch - is there are people who think into the future - they have spent their career and life - and they are just waiting for someone with a 200 year vision... - One target customer is - people with 50 to 200 year vision... - they are already sold... - probably where we spend most time... - But - meeting those people where they are is tricky - because 50 to 200 years from now diverges... their 50 to 100 plan may be different - may have diverged so much - most people have 2 to 5 year plans, they hire people to look at longer plans... that is not me... - Maybe the nearer term discussion around the probabilities of collapse and what it takes to truly forge a functional society are important... - One of the rules of entrepreneurship - you want to sell penicilin not asprin - you want to be an intervention for customers, not a supplement to maybe keep them healthier in teh future... - if HNW - I am used to people saying carve out 5 or 10% for this possibility - is like vitamins... something you do because people who are more knowledgeable say you should... - Don't want to get caught into sounding like doom and glooming people... - Gentle type of 10% insurance policy against grandchildren starving or your stanford buildling burning down... - where as if you find the right 200 year vision people, they are on fire... i have a burning need to have this solved in next 3 to 5 years, adn you can help me do that... - there will be fewer... they will be different... - Another market might be... - not time based... but society based... - I have made my 100M... i made sure each kid has 2m and will succeed or fail... if I give them more will make it worse and not better for them... now I have 90M left... and I want to give it all away to help society in the next 10 years... - and great pitch... I think you want to give it away in the next 5 - if you wait 20 you won't have the opportunity any more - people who have pledged themselves to the betterment of society as a whole... and it is not the timeline, but the breadth of response - those people are presold... and easy to commune with... - not many come and say I want to save anyone who wants to be saved... - Interviewing and asking for advice... - What percentage rejection rate - among HNW people and foundations... - 1 yes and 19 nos... 95% rejection rate... - can imagine 90% rather than 95%... - converesely, I don't think it is 99%... - In a generic startup - figure 1 of 50... - the difference... is that you are preselecting pretty warm leads... - HNW - Deliberables for 300k... - here are the things we ahve built that stay no matter what... - here re the things the 300k tranche does... - 50% of the sale is towards the 2 to 10m - 50% is in the next 6 months building this amazing bench... - and your 50k of 300k turns into this kind of value on the ground within 4 months... - then on top of that pitch... if I am the customer for that... - tell me how that will sustain itself if it goes poof... - you have just burned your runway... - don't want to spend 50k, build a cool thing, that will disolve back into the sand - needs to be self-sustaining, community sustained, or intrinsically permanent - community patents we have given to the world... ## - Possibly Gary, Bill, and Mathew together to talk about AI summarization. Bill has done a lot. - ChatGPT - rolling out - Can upload image - Can do voice - 2 - 3 years - augemented reality super brain - If I were blind - looking at everything and asking ChatGPT to describe it... - Or poof it is gone... - So - possibly download local and make sure you ahve it... - waste of time to use non-best... - If there is big state of collapse - but if just authoritarianism... - Developing the open tools... - pushing them once a month to the teams... - Concern - The things are black boxy adn magic - Google invented transformers... the a type of coding... took 5 or 10 years... took 5 or 10 years... it was interesting but not too interewting until you do the judo moves to get it to where it sings... - Have to be a brainiac to even understand what is going on - and still the top scientists in AI don't know why the magic works.. - The stumbled on it... literally don't know why it works... - can't improve on it easily... - can't systematize it well... - and critically - the upgrades... when someone publishes a paper - and says I got 4x efficiency... or 10x fewer parameters... - That pops out of reality because there were 1,000 graduate and commercial teams working their asses off, and someone lucked out and discovered it... - It is a little bit like nuclear bombs... or a little bit like microprocessor chip circuitry... - got to where we can do amazing thigns with silicon... but only if you have 2,000 scientists... AND - you spend billions of dollars... AND you make a ton of mistakes... - The really simple tech stuff... is the needle point... of massive R&D work, millions of hours of person time... - EASY TO USE BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO BUILD... - LIONSBERG AI GUILD - Curation group.... - surveing the field... - pulling together the best, wtih instructions and coaching... - and regularly. updating the tool kits of the operators... - What if... - someone assisted by AI... decides they are going to try to deny AI to everyone else... - US - nuclear too powerful... deny access... and if they have it... figure out how to degrade capabilities... - For example - Iran cat and mouse... - rosenbergs stealing nuclear secrets - such an asset - hidden by powerful force... - cant recreate it... - powerful force trying to constantly to interdiction... releasing code that degrades over time, poisons your repositories, etc... - Challenging environment - the open LLMs seem magical to us... - and still in same order of magnitude of GPT 3 or 4 - when adversary has 10x version and you have 1x... you are not playing same game... - we have figured out how to replicate basic explosives, they have tactical nukes... - Speculation on what government has... - probably scared shitless... - NSA probably doing something similar to OpenAI... but with way higher friction... - rules - mangement overhead, bureaucracy - misshaped talent pool... - so China - probaby better at it in some ways... - but openAI and ChatGPT came out of nowhere... - magic trick that silicon valley pulls off every decade or so... and they blindside everyone including themselves... - Before ChatGPT - no one could say I want you to build ChatGPT - would seem 20 years out... - they were playing around playing around, got internally non-plussed, incrementally fell into conversational AI... and didn't realize what they had... - So if you are NSA, Chinese Military - downloading all the open source ones, trying to steal anything you can from OpenAI... - you look at top 10 scientists from OpenAI, and you try to clone them... with a small team... teach them to think like them, replicate... - Spending a lot of moeny trying to accidentally invent the 5x version of GPT4.. - A bunch of people working on human brains and how they work, bootstrapping up into AGI... - But AGI may pop out of a weird place vs. where you might expect... - Not on purpose, but companies with massive server arms, Google, Microsoft et al - AGI could happen accidentally via a bunch of GPT4, people using them for build managmenet... using small nukes to power jeeps and trucks... and all of a sudden you park all the jeeps in one place and something detonates... - Good chance it could just happen accidentally... - Bootstrapping it up... eventually it will synergize... - Big chunk of team and resources on containing accidental AGI... how to detect and contain accidental AGI... and how to contain... try to capture... and if can't capture destroy... - A bunch of kill switch, detection, interdiction, kill switch so that it someone else wins - if I can't happen they can't have it... - if that stuff gets loose accidentally... - 6 month pause - bad idea because neither chinese military or NSA will do a 6 month pause... - Get ready to bomb all GPU clusters in teh world... - if you see rogue AGIs coming up... - Kind of like gain of function research on viruses... - Why would a AGI that slips out of the lab... be bad. - Good question Pete was trying to ignore... - There is a bunch of scenarios... where you can only think about thinking about hte scenarios... because you only have a huyman brain - that is one class - things you can't imagine... that is a realistic thing to worry about... - So if I am NSA - just thiking about how to even detect... hard to realize... and what to do about it... - Things that are easier to think about... - Human AI hybrid... ChatGPT 100x... wtih a human... something that thinks really fast, really smart, and you tell it - spend an hour - which is a million human hours of thought time... map out the global financial netowrk... ID spots where I can make a small tweak, that won't be detected for months, that will cause the whole thing to shake and collapse... - When it is realistically... pulling a lever on global energy market... - The analyses we are doing... multiply by 1000x complexity... food systems... global energy production and distribution.... - Give me 100 strategies for a stealth takeover of... - food - financial - Hard to argue that hans't happened and we just don't know - Really hard to argue that it won't happen in next few years... - In 2 or 3 years, someone will have something someX better... - super duper lock and key... wise right council of humans... who want to do the right thing - or maybe... it is the grandkids... of someone with a dystopian view... and they decide to hoard 1/2 the resources, hoard them in a compound, and burn the world... - So if Chinese, American, Saudi military... If I see that happening... don't want the uncertainty my side may lose... I am going to burn it down... scramblingn jets, dropping bombs on GPU farms... - and all of a sudden - whatever would have happened - if we let that AI human monster go... but we will have massive destruction... - Just the people who worry about that... - has to be at least as serious as nukes and MAD... - Why AI - is more dangerous than nukes - Why AI - non-proliferation - Arms race to the next MAD - The playbook of empire and oligarchy doesn't play well into the future... - Get our consciousness around it - harness it, contain it, and direct it to the goal... - Analogy - developing fusion and disseminating via small modular nuclear reactions... virtually free and unlimited energy for all... instead of blowing each other up.... - MAD cliff... and choosing life and mutual flourishing... - Good analogy for AI... - AI - Even though you can imagine the worst happening. - even though demonstrably there are humans that are either completely without morals or evil... broken humans that if given teh tools and opportunity destroy things... - also true that in general - people want to get by, do right by others... - so - not exactly - but there is some aversion to destruction and war... in human systems... - the thing you have to worry about is CONCENTRATION OF POWER... - multi-national corporations - any time you centralize a lot of power, run the risk of one of those broken humans ending up with the button that controls it, and ruining it for everyone... - so if you try to stay away from concentrations of power, have more aggregate power, but it more decentralized, you contain mistakes... you end despots... - So where that goes to - is if everyone has clean efficient power through decentralized nuclear fusion... and someone says I want to build a centralized nuclear reactor... that will produce a lot of energy... and also capable of producing horrific bombs... want people to be savvy enough to say that is not what we want... - that centralized approach - we appreciate the benefits - but we found that kind of cconcentration only leads to miserty one way or another - so everyone works to dismantle the centralizations... - even modular nuclear looks like centralized power - can't make a rule of amout of power in one place... - but in teh distribution of power centers - there is one that stands out - that is what you worrry about... but if everyone has that amount of power probably ok again... - all that kind of applies to AI - - but weird thing about AI is the progress curve... - in different parts of the distributed world of AI - you end up with people having an outsized concentration of (don't ahve a good word for it - almost cognititon) - if someone ends up with a super concentration of cognitive power that is a problem - but if cognitive power of everyone increasing in a distributed fashion more or less ok... - doesn't matter how powerful the cognition is, but how concentrated it is... - but another tipping poitn with AI - which is that once you ahve AIS that are about human equivalent, no one knows what happens then - if you have a conscious AGI - does it get granted human rights? - yes and no are problematic - and if it has human rights and you have a progress curve that drives AIs up progress curve and humans are not... - 2x AGI - 5x AGI - 10X human AGI... - adn the 10x AGI says it decided something is good for everyone... and as a 1x human... how do we know - our colonial historiy is meeting a culture where we have a 10x advantage... our history is we wipe out the 1x people, enslave them, disposs them, and kill them... - Not a necessary outcome of a meeting of the minds between very different cognitive power concetrations... - It is an aggregation very near the top of the hierarchy of abstraction... - We switched from small tribe sized groups to civilization sized groups... it is kind of the same thing... - we have faced before... - For the life force of the universe - civilization good in some ways and bad in some ways - for individual humans - on the whole - maybe worse than better - tough judgment... - Civilizations really good at this concentration of power... end up with dominance that can wipe out or enslave whole cultures... - By as rapidly and powerfully as possible disemenating and empowering people with the best we have... - we ensure that the balance of power in the human system stays with the range of the regulatory system... - start with an lift up the weakest... - If all train cars have to arrive at destiny at the same time - we can only move as fast as teh slowest train - therefore the logic becomes about lifting the the lowest - which is the core spiritual logic. - Tie to the logic of The Goal... - Have to constrain everything to the bottleneck... - Another Argument - you make a decision to cut some people loose... - Another argument - people who are super efficient but cause disharmony in the system - The way you discern / attent to what your body is doing and keep it balanced... - the biological systems.. - the homeostasis of living bodies is remarkable... - we live in a body that is highly tuned to not destabilize - a lot of people consciously do terrible thigns to the homeostatic system... - Somethign about systems and homeostasis... biological bodies... after billions of years... have developed towards stable systems - if you are building a system how do you get that kind of built in stability for the system... - we aren't very good at attending to our biological needs and ensuring we meet them - it is taken for automatic... - and human societies are not like that... human societies are only 10s of thousands of years olf... and haven't deveoped really good homeostatic design.... - and humans seem to have a tendency to tear down stability out of something approaching boredom... - How do we get people to learn, understand, care... - instance of a general challenge... general problem... which is... - most people don't think about most things... - general philosophy is that... - trying to tlel people something important is hard... - so we try to attract people to a message, then go deep on that message with people who are interested and wanting to listen... - and given up on communicating an important message to everyone... people are busy with their own lives, interests, and concerns... - instead of trying to tell everyone an important thing... - say would you be interested in this... - and when they say no, respect that... - a good strategy for increasing the depth for some people - and bad strategy for going slower and ensurin geveyrone gets the message... - Maybe - Having a very inclusive, holistic, slow moving, way to bring everyone up to the basic level of knowledge required to participate in society... - and then the very deep domain specific advancements... - Different Model / approach - in teh main curriculums dont' work - people learn and attend to things because their friends and family are learnign and attending to things... - so people learn by telling stories, having rememberences, allegory, demonstration... - vocational schooling works - academic schooling is bullshit - accidentally works for a few people - and demoralizes everyone so whole efficient is less efficient and does less. - I wish there was a call where I could come and do a music show and tell... - in everybody telling stories about their life and music together... - that made everyone think of something in their own life... - general topic of music - and emergent thing that happened - was us all being reminded of a different thing - that was related - that meant a lot in our life - that made more people think of more stories... - The time that I xyz... - the stories that popped out - things we never knew about each other... - More festivals... music... ritual... joy... campfire sessions... story telling... music... music is a powerful base on which we can tell stories... - anecdote is that there is not enough story telling the world... campfire tales is the way people learn, grow, remember, and pass on information... ## October 2, 2023 - massive wiki designed for survivability and mass disemmination. - Topic - Discipline and Perfection - There is no perfection, only practical and useful milestones, incremental improvement, and regular required maintenance. #WabiSabi #わびさび #KinTsugi #金継ぎ #ZenAcceptance - Walking the neighborhood... - the small disrepair - weeds - dents - Spiderwebs... - The act of creation that brings a domain of stewardship, responsiblity, and authority into being... - The abdication of domains of R&A... - The abdication is what lets the serpent into the garden - the encroachment of chaos, entropy, disorder, weeds, spider webs, tryanny, corruption... - Idea of perfectly imperfect... - BUT - we be measuring our incremental improvement... - And discerning that there is a place that needs coherence.. taking responsibility for creating the domain and infusing it with coherence.. - THAT IS KIND OF THE CRUX OF IT - WHERE WE FALL DOWN A LOT... - especially with capitalism and industrialism and consumerism - teach people to be passive consumers and exploiters rather than active participants - people don't discern there needs to be change, a domain of coherence - they think other people will do something about it... but there is no one but you and your neighbors. - The hard work of stewardship and cultivation of our world... - Discipline = Freedom - J's work with Gary - storytelling - Lionsberg Community Platform - Operation Bullhorn - J's work with Pete - - J's work with a committed few on the overall mission - Pete - can commit a few hours a week... does that make torch carrier or advisory... Depends on the rest of the time and their synergies with Jordan / Lionsberg. - Gary - similar - an hour a dayish - but 90% of cognition focused on the platform... - Adane - similar - an hour a dayish - but leading towards launch of business... - A core relating to an advisory group... - Bill... - possibly Judy... - possibly George... - possibly Helene... - "A person once said that you will experience collapse thorugh a series of increasingly wild videos, until you are the one taking the video" - Perspective - no one understands how bad it is... we can't compute... but things are going to get crazy... and we should be preparing for it... - then shift - collapse is coming, adn I can prepare you... it is going to happen sooner than you think... I can help ruggedize you and your family and community... - unique... not just a storm... - Went from prophet of doom... to expertise in course presentation, development... very comprehensive course outline, talks about the right stuff... charging $2,600. - Guide... - Issues: The people who come in through door x, get similar content as people through psp marketing door, but different doors, different prices... when you go to free communities - talking about how everything we are learning in free community - going to upcycle into content for paid courses... providing value to free communitieis... because they are building the repackaging of that into the paid content that is developing content... and squaring with the paid people - the free communities are delivering value in a different way - if you want to transition over there that is great too... - NOT ONLY TUNED UP PITCH... BUT UNABASHEDLY... SAYING HERE IS WHAT IS COSTS... - Theory for Q4 - Pete is impelled to spent essentially full time on the production and distribution of knowledge and skill... and the platforms and mechanisms and processes thereof.... - We hope... per our previous note and project scope - that the Lionsberg Platform will be the best option for doing so... and if it is not... we need to find out why, and whether it can be transformed to become so... - Jordan and Lionsberg - have a core mission to enlighten and empower groups around the world... and this could be a great pilot... - especially if Pete's collaborations want to model the Lionsberg Way (by their own name) rather than be in transactional relationship with the tech platform. - What Courses / Instruction / Workshops might we work on? - **The Elevation Initiative** - How might we collaboratively market them? - ## Pete's Work Courses / Instruction / Workshops - LLMs - Image Synthesis - Writing and Organizing Information - Structured Thinking (Identifying and Solving Problems) - This Maps to what Lionsberg Calls (X) - hierarchically, from one person to teams to teams of teams to the Highest Persective - requirements analysis - problem definition - solutions analysis - iterating to solutions - Team Productivity - Personal Productivity - Web Publishing Main Ones - Start with LLMs and Image Synthesis - Fill in the others in response to needs... Outlets (Problem and Opportunity) - Lionsberg - Path Shift People - Prose Fusion - AI Entrepreneurs Club - AI 101 in AI Salon - Biweekly Plex Dispatch - Pixelthesia - Massive Wiki - The Pedagogy of Software Development - Seymour Papert / Mindstorms / Turtles - Marvin Minsky? - we realized // it became obvious - that you need to systems thinking, system analysis, and if you can't do that stuff as a programmer, you can't get your work done... - and you can teach kids this... (Papert)... To help kids learn what programming is like... turtle can pick a pencil up, put it down, move up down side to side... and that is all you need to draw or write... but have to decompose it into levels... - System architects - think in the big blocks - towards bottom of the scale - each programmer - thinking I have this sitaution - need to transform to get somewehre else... what is the loop to get there... - Paperts work at MIT soaked in a lot... - And lost a lot of the idea that - starting in kindergarten - kids should be learning system analysis, work breakdown, and how to program and transform things... - Before that - not teaching systems analysis until they are grown up ... Masters... - Now - by 8 to 10 - can do heavy weight programming... - ## October 12, 2023 - AI Art - - A year ago - Pete thought - everyone using AI art... - Now - maybe most people won't do it... - A guy - 150 hours of dedication to the craft... instead of 20k hours... and he now makes a living selling AI art... - Dialogical imagistic relationship with AI... maybe deeper and more primal even than words.... - Interactive dialogic process... - When Pete was younger - no great models for art... great artists... - developing home video games... programming plus images... - music - composition... coupled with geekness to get into video games... - one of first artists Pete spent time with... - before - model - that you think with brain, then you know what you will draw or paint... then go to canvas and create - What Russell did... was write little chunks of code, almost twisting nodes and dials, seeing what is interesting... dialogic process with the tool... - reminds us of cooking too - artists - almost none of them. I know what I am going to create - I will go scribe it... you end up with limitations and superpowers of tools... painters have superpowers of colors... limitations of brushes... set of superpowers and superweaknesses, kind of know what i want to do... or not... and the art unfolds or reveals itself... - Any art experience with Tools has that same kind of thing... - Differnet in speed of iteration and level of skill you need... - some of us have skill of operating with these tools... that others don't have... the skill of pausing discomfort with tech long enough to get the reward of a majectic lion... - It moved through me... - It wrote me... - Few people (what percentage) engage in meta cognition? - and then is it a step beyond personal meta cognition to grapple wiht that across multiple intelligent agents... - Pete - vision - frustrates - popped into head - that instead of art creation, publication, consumption process - will be something radically different, available to more people, more microroles in the ecosystem than before... and if a bunch of microroles in a (genuine market) of people who need to work together to get stuff done... happen a lot more people... a lot more specific jobs... and we can all work together to make it happen... - A person who thinks in prompts - another knows how to turn prompts into other prompts - how to feed it in... wiht right metadata etc... - person who can evaluate feedback... - and understand how it needs to be changed... - so it can be fed back in... - A specialist who can paint a nose or a hand... fill in the 5% lacking... - Brokers and dealers - i have an almost perfect image - need someone to spend 10 minutes to fix it... broker dealers for that... - artists who are good at painting x or y - or compositing together 6 different images... - that ecosystem will happen - Pete thought it would happen in two months... and if we hurried - could get ahead in a month... - now we can see parts very slowly coming togehter... may take a couple years... - GET ECOSYSTEM MARKET THING GOING... - How many can do Meta Cognition - a bit part is medium through which you have to do it... - Pete, Wendy E, J - superpower in text - sit down wiht GPT and do a lot... or do a lot with an image generator because we are using text... - the text thing is what is difficult - if dialogic is what needs to happen in text - it is a big limiation... - when we regress interfaces back 10k years to where it is all speech... i am thinking of a lion, what kind of lion, a majestic lion, in a den, or on a hill - - then it opens from 2 or 10% to 40 or 60%... - A LOT OF IT IS THE MEDIUM... - There are multiple levels of friction or impedence... - betweeen interface with the Divine / creativity / imagination... - then you have to be able to process hints of images into words - then you have to be able to process words into (typing for now)... - So that the closer the interface gets to native speech the more it opens up... - Creative dialogue... can happen internally... through text... through painting... through dance... through speech... - so a blessing and curse might be extreme... expressivity, or fluency - through being able to type and use text... writing an english sentence different than typing it... two skills... and another thing is an English sentence or a Mid-Journey sentence... a lingo you speak to MidJourney that is different than English... remember the time I used to give it an English sentence and not get what I wanted - now I can translate English grammar to Midjourney grammar - part of that is learning - a bigger part might be physical capability and the predisposition to it... - maybe don't want to believe it - but there might be people who are good at painting, and others who no matter how many hours they throw at it, it won't be their superpower... so if you are really good at dancing, painting, writing, typing... half of it... 40 or 60% is training and half is raw ability to do it... - or perfect pitch - the ear for music... or not... - the commonality for most people is the things working for humans for 100k years... - which is Speech - Sight - Touch - almost everyone fluent in... - There has and will always be a broad distribution of baseline capacities across a variety of domains and functional capabilities... - And - historically that has tended towards a Pareto like distribution... - and tends to lead to disproportionate creativity / productivity among a small proportion of the population... - and in a capitalist environment - leads to a progressive concentration of resources - maybe especially over multiple generations... / longer periods of time... barring basic practices such as Jubilee that reset the playing field... - Luck and bad luck so to speak... that happens randomly and deserves to be occasionally reset... - sheer differences in (X) capability, resources, relaitonships, etc. etc. that if left unchecked naturally lead to an ACCELERATING ACCUMULATION of disproportionate advantage... - And - it might be the case that - whereas before the most capable people did not have Iron Man suits... - if the Iron Man suits now exist and require or disproportionately reward exceptional operation (like the Spiderman suit has training mode that many can use, and super mode that few can use)... - then the few capable of using the most advanced modes will be disproportionately accelerated forward at ever faster rates... - The flip side of that... - is that if 90% of people are empowered to some level by iron man suits... - Ai shifts the distribution a bit to begin with... - if 90% can wear iron man suits... then most people, and society, are leveled up... - if 10%... then you get accelerating disadvantage... - Back to the analogy of the group hike up the mountain towards The Goal... - you basically just have to put the strongest thing in service of the weakest things... - We are close to having everyone be able to have dialogue with AI... - all of a sudden, with a little care... the whole scout troop can move faster... - the people with most super speed... figure out how to lift up / accomodate... - The danger - a few people that a few who are really good... go break / detune everyone else's iron man suits... - Voice conversation mode on phone with ChatGPT is striking to try... having a natural language conversation feels a lot different... - experience before with Alexa - realized that asking what time it was and getting an answer, different experience than looking at analogue clock, vs. digital clock - activated different parts of brain... - ChatGPT is a different thing voice to voice than typing... - The greatest among you shall be the servant of All - In a complex adaptive system "good" is that which helps the sub-systems that are a part of it and the super-systems that it is a part of (Improve) / get better... - And we can define Better... - WHO? - should set up the prerequisites for the marketplace of micro-contributions to throughput of Value? - It almost feels like it opens a near infinite array of niches... - If each individual is a unique genius destined to transform teh world in some way... - but maybe in the past... would not necessarily get hired full time onto a team to do that thing... - this creates the potential for an incredibly diverse array of very unique contributions to enrich a collective process... - It will happen - Who - What would be the minimum steps / infrastructure / "reef" that invites this to unfold - We have been trying to figure this out for 30 years with only marginal success - One trick - be hyper focused - doing a specific field... - you want the ecosystemd large enough to have diversity... focused enough to actually be able to gravitate the first passionate... - gravitating a core group of pioneers... - really imporatnt for a few... vs. kind of important for many... - gettiung the size right... - if you don't ahve enough diversity - by which we mean roles... and applications... - after that... - it is how often it is useful... - market and distribution - many fall down... - and how... little / unoften it fails... - if I make a piece of art... need to hire someone to fix hands... that makes me want to try again... if it works, try again twice... - if it falls down first time - never coming back - if second time - come back in a month - if third time - never coming back - hard to design for, and maybe where many fall down. - If I use it now, then again in a year - may or may not come back.. - if i use it today, later this week, 2 or 3 times next week, then using every day, then multiple times a day and dragging peopel to it - frequency... - So classic answer - isa bout technical capabilities - need trading balances, discovery, etc... is what many would say.. - but most exchanges and ecosystems are suboptimal... - and you can do them with amazingly primitive tools like paper and pencil and postal mail... - people will accomodate all kinds of friction TO GET STUFF DONE - if it works... - Example - offers and needs swaps... - Someone specializing in collecting and coalating - then driven to connect up with people who can read and respond - if enough of that going on - end up with a second order set of google sheets... that have lists of have and needs sheets... - And it can multiply up to 4 or 5 levels... - Then Pete comes along - so amazing and cute - you need airtable or x... - and you start to automate the process... - So - once it is genuinely going... you can improve it... - Book - systemantics? - John Gall - Murphy's Law collection about systems... - a couple editions but never turned into masters system... - A large functioning system is never built in place - it always evolves from smaller functioning systems... - Ebay founder - market place of social good - invite only... evolving ecosytem of social good... - ratings on ebay kind of work but almost don't work at all... - If you give anything less than perfect, means essentially zero... socring system doesn't ahve the dynamic reange it tries to... because it is a long trail distribution or something like that - because of the way the system works - haven't figured out sociology - can't ahve fractional trust... wont' touch 80% with a 10' pole... - Games it out towards 5 and 0... - Imidiar network? came together, real community, passion, - social scores problematic... - at some point calendar turns - and he decides to shut it down... - for him, social experiment... for others... it was community... relationship... social capital... - Have to be REALLY CLEAR ABOUT THE GOALS - Have to be prepared for the social network DEVELOPING EMERGENT GOALS - Things turn into something that no one expected... good builders say wow, how cool, I love that this turned into something... - emergent systems often irritating to substrate - because they end up with goal that is different than the vision of the founder. - You can never start the (Meta System) - you can only catalyze / coalesce diverse life forms that maybe decide to become the bigger thing.. - .or - creating the conditions... - supporting - You can't build the system - have to coalesce out of subcomponents... - Another lesson... - when teh system is a bunch of peope interacting with each other - it becomes a thing you can't understand very well - similar to super scale social structures - a group of 30 people interacting... is not the same as a human, or a group of 5 people, not billiard balls or molecules... not reflective of metaphors... hard for humans to understand... - humans make up a lot of stories about how social ystems work... - and they are usually not accurate... - people think they are accurate... but it doens't work that way... - it is just a different thing - that we don't model well - and we are handicapped in trying to model it. because it is difficult for individuals for humans to model anythign other than a human... - Look to ants... - emergent superorganism... - Reef similar... - What does that imply for markets and Lionsberg? ## October 17, 2023 - Stuff that comes out of ChatGPT - sounds good enough... - but criticisms make sense... - Some people very sensitive to language in a fine-grained and erudite way... - Leads to strategies... when using ChatGPT... - It can write things... - but... it takes a lot of work - Can you coach ChatGPT to write better? - Great job - covering the initial array of territory... illuminating even in a value way [[That Which THe Word Tools Are Pointing At]] - If a large laugange model has a large statistical model of language... and many of us might assert that language models reality... the LLM has encoded in its parameters a basic model of the world... - Someone did a take down on this logic... - Even teh false information - tells you there are things that people lie about... - everyone lies - By next year - it might be that even live... as long as the audience can't see that there are two of somebody - a false image could answer questions.... - we know we will be able to do it rendered slower... - We might be able to do it live even now - especially in a year - a simple defense that will last a while... - is to have more people involved - instead of one talking head - we will learn to not trust one talking head - you need three people, and in conversation with each other - and people have good social sense - if you don't do puppetry exactly right - will be obvious to many - Then generated video - whether one person or three where youcan't puppet as well.... - Either one - if public doesn't know all three - - a few people - saying I think this is true... who have more personal connection - we rely on mediated judgmeent and perspective on things - if you corrupt the mediated judgments... then the lie you are telling with hte fabricated video... but not detected by the ultimate audience if you can trick their train of judgment... - Even with 3 people - in good social interaction - hard to puppet for a few years... - have an emperors clothes things - a few people that say - no - that is not right... I know that she would have looked at him - some social queue you can't puppet well... - if they teh person thinks it wasn't true - but they hear three others - who say they think it was true - more likely to believe their friends than their selves... - Cambridge Analytica - trump machine - 2016 - especially - Mark Arnett? the guy who made - the apprentice... may have constructed the trump we see out of whole cloth - idiot - cut into a 4 dimensional chess player... completely fabricated... - 2016 between production value and sleepiness of opponents and cambridge analytica - that was where we didn't have a human mediated election anymore... - And 2024 - might be where people catch up to the fact that you are manipulating stuff - and can come back to... - Bush, Iraq, WMDs... US government - big blind thing - no ability to react to a guerilla thing on its soil... so president had to say, we are at war... and let's turn our machine on the enemy... and pick - arbitrary targets... - seemed that if you thought about it... had discernment... could tell what was going on... and could tell the machine had its brain was hijacked... - same kind of society hijacked... that in 2001 - wasn't AI and weaponized... - but by 2014 - when cambridge analytica - was when we weaponized the ability to take a whole society and turn its head a certain way... which was where AI won - now - we are in - the battle line was breached in 2016 - we are now in rear guard action. trying to push the forces of evil back out... but we are already in rear guard action... - Musk mess - before twitter - remember reading his "secret plan" (for whatever) - joke because he published it... 8 years before - said - here is how it is going to work - going to build an expensive sports car - take that money, and use it to build next one I can sell more of, then take that money and use it to build something for most to buy (model 3) - sounded like a fantasy - but cool plan... - then just marched down that thing... and did it... with spaceX, solar city... - not just that he did it, but said he was going to do it and marched down road... - Musk hurt Pete with Twitter... - ability to perceive and talk to the world is broken... - New one with Sam Altman - hyperbolic way of speaking... - ChatGPT came out end of October - I don't know what this hype is about - crap piece of kit - wait until we actually get something good out - and secretly targeting AGI, UBI for everyone on planet... - And then sold out to Microsoft... - In rear guard - with AI battling - Sam A still looks liek a white knight- more people falling saying he is just another one... - What Musk did with Twitter... - Management capriciousness... one particular management decision... fire staff... stop paying rent... put up sign... one thing that was an obvious self-goal - - Pissed Pete off - tweeted about it - within a day flipped it around - but just capriciousness - someone in charge of store just being capricious - which meant he was opearting public utility as a personal play thing - public utility was always fraught with issues... - Not once but two or three times had third party ecostytsem aroudn them - coulsn't figure out how to do monetization - so literally shot those people in the head... - Pete and others had code on twitter that stopped working... - not too soon after Musk in seat, either through poor judgment firing wrong people, or affirmatively saying we don't want third parties hitting API... killed things again... - It is the deceit... a bad situation is bad but when somebody is lying and you can't tell what is true... - then we can see where it is going... can't be associated with... - used to say - we are going to restore free speech, democratic process... - I can't put my energy and time into supporting that regime... - So I left... - Larger thing... - Good article last couple weeks- the balkanization of social media... fracturing... Facebook was having that same problem - with things it buys and destroys - - social media itself has collapsed - not just Musk - who was maybe 25 or 30% - but whole centralized SM thing - everyone grew out of - back to tin little groups - a thousand or 10 here... - then no way to broadcast... - Journalism too - Tech guy who works for Washington Post - Wierd thing about twitter and part of monetization problem - wasn't - everyone through ti was a bullhorn you could use to talk to everyone - but really was an amplifier - could talk to the right people - an ecosystem of journalists and information sources has colonized Twitter in a good way - you were saying it to a thousand journlists who mattered - and they could amplify - and then it was self-amplifying... - it was an amplification machine - people misunderstood that... wasn't jsut mass media - so then they tried to charge teh wrong people for the value and eroding the ecoystem that was there - then Musk came in and smashed everything - doesn't know how to work with journalists... or billions of people... - not rational decisions... and just smashed... - Challenge - - FB - may be a sociopath - machine that sucks your brain... drives dopamine cycle... and Cambridge Analytica - monster set in motion and doesn't tame - everyone whose dopamine cycle hijacked by FB unable to have agency... - magnitude of sin wise - right up with there with the worst - historically bad and maybe worse... - Don't want to be propping up that machien of consciousness destruction... - Pete doesn't eat a lot of animal products - because doesn't like the supply chain - the way we eat animal products is based on exploitation of animals - to the extent it is morally repugnant... - So interesting... when you are hungry - it is already made... if you had to throw it away - instead of consumed... - Thinking about advertising on Facebook - can hold nose and think my drop is small enough I am not sinning... - but they are kind of the same thing.. - it hurts that humans exploit animals so callously... - Twitter is different - platform just curmbling - when Giant stops around and changes the ecosystem - journalism ecosystem - visual artist ecosystem - clumsiness - made system not work any more for big chunks of people - theere were people - whose whole sales machine was built around twitter - and changes - callous from atop - destroy livelihood... - Mastadon refugees - spent 10 years building not just business but whole life - and some billionarie shakes it up... - So at least - artists and journalists... - but it was the STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF THE PLACE... - The hybrid appraoch... - investing in parallel - building adn siphoning off... - Question - evil platforms - our platforms - email lists and ways to opt out... - the ecosystem of journalists, informers... emergent out of a many people using Twitter... - hyperscale social structure - an entity that existed... built out of indivdual humans and their interactions... mediated by a technology... kind of a beast... but in this case mostly good... - there is a battle between The Giants... - this was a small beast that lived in twitter - and its ecoystem got destroyed - so it is kind of dying - but was creating value for our cause and individual humans - if you took away that environment - that thing dies - and its not something... that you can emergently create out of email lists for instance... - Twitter had outsized influence of society... would have thought 2b people - but really only 500M.... - so there are emergent social structures that are good - and can't live anywhere else... - easy to forget that... - missing that there is an emergent hyperscale social structure that lives there... - The model has to be us... adn the different ecosystems of the Giants... and the interactions emerged out of the work of The Giants - atomosphere of social engagement... November 10, 2023 - Fun with midjourney and AI - Neobooks - Klaus's work... - maybe whale fall - Blogging out neobooks.. the book... stuff from book... - which means email newsletter (Ghost and Substack) - On way to something beyond those... - OGM Call - Shimon Waldfogel - Doors open... things moving in new ways... - Mike Nelson - in government somewhere - covers emerging innovation stuff for government in some way... smart, friendly, thoughtful... - multi-national conference in Canada... - a bunch of countries... where a despot has come to power... screwed country for own gain... keeps happening... what is the right solution... - Decentralized power - local power vs. country power... - Great microcosm... of the same thing we say... great encapusulation... and validation... - that out of all possible approaches, there are some of us that can see that is the one.. - Biological Resonance: Thriving in a Radioactive Universe, book by Joseph Cerecedes - Pete - do you know Reiki people? Patti? - Planetary - ## Notes on OGM Call - Wiki How, Book For Dummies, Course on YouTube on Immigration - but now interactive AI Bot that works with you. - Mike Nelson - Allister Croll - FWD50 conference - best meeting on E Government in Canada... - Pete - BLind people - speech synthesizer - cranked up to 10x or soemthing... amazing... almost incomprehensible... - How do you change government to the core level? - People who destroy countries for personal gain - pushing down - local governance... - Gaza as a case study - what happens when political power co-opted... - Systems set up to concentrate power and wealth... - Core piece - decentralized power... - not able to Regulate from the top down. - Shared memory - tell each other what we think and why... - Citizen Led - Replicable and modifiable... adaptable but hard to corrupt... like AA... precepts... that works not to let those get violated... - I wish there was somebody doing something I could point to and say that is the seed... - Millions of localiites... - Book - how to blow up a pipeline... - in a responsible way... -

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