HackMD
Timeline of Putin's approval and aggression abroad
Sept 1999
Chechnya
"Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin refused Wednesday to rule out a possible ground war against the rebellious southern province. Bombs destroy apartment blocks in Moscow, Buynaksk and Volgodonsk. More than 200 people are killed. Moscow blames Chechens who in turn blame Russian secret services."
Russian Prime Minister Refuses to Rule Out New Chechen War
Chechnya
"Russia's military leaders have a simple explanation for the bombs raining down on Chechnya. They say they are copying NATO's air campaign against Yugoslavia."
Imitating NATO: A Script Is Adapted for Chechnya (Published 1999)
Chechnya
The second consecutive day of air strikes revived memories of Moscow's ill-fated military campaign against Chechen separatists from 1994 to 1996, but the Kremlin ruled out a full-scale war.
Russian Warplanes Bomb Chechen Capital
October 1999
Chechnya
"Russian ground troops entered Chechnya Thursday and took positions on strategic heights near the border, reportedly advancing as far as six miles into the breakaway republic. The moves followed a week of air strikes on the Chechen capital, Grozny, that sent nearly 80,000 Chechens fleeing in fear. It raised concern that Russia is on the verge of another full-scale war in Chechnya just three years after a humiliating defeat there."
Russian Sends Ground Troops Into Chechnya, Raising Fears
Chechnya
To the Editor:
… As a former Hungarian freedom fighter, I know how the citizens of Chechnya and the residents of Grozny feel, because that is exactly how we felt 43 years ago. I also know what they think of the passivity of the free world.I, too, am ashamed of the deafening silence coming from the United Nations and Washington.
The only reassurance I can offer the Chechen freedom fighters is the knowledge that tanks cannot kill ideals and that if they do not give up, they will eventually gain their liberty.
Chechnya
To the Editor:
Soldiers would come from outside Bosnia with planes and tanks and would kill, rape, expel and steal. They would encircle cities and keep them under siege. Yes, in Bosnia, they were Serbs. But the arms were the same, the instructors were the same, and the credo was the same.
It is sad to hear how swiftly President Clinton condemned the shootings in Armenia in light of the silence about Russian crimes in Chechnya.
November 1999
Chechnya
Russian Army Says Chechen Resistance Is Growing Stiffer
January 2000
Chechnya
Putin's role in misleading the public about the war in Chechnya was described in a news report.
Putin's role in the blatantly misleading information issued by the government about the Chechnya offensive also has been criticized. His talent for creating legends has been evident in his explanations about the war. For example, Putin told the writers group that the military had been open with the news media, when the military has in fact hidden information about casualties, combat events, attacks on civilians and its goals and methods.
Felix Svetov, a writer who spent time in Stalin's prison camps as a child and who lost his father in the purges, was present at the writers meeting. He said Putin's comment "does not correspond with reality." Putin is a typical KGB type, he added. "If the snow is falling, they will calmly tell you, the sun is shining."
Putin's Career Rooted in Russia's KGB
March 2000
Russia
Putin is elected President for the first time.
Russia's 2000 Presidential Elections
January 2006
Georgia
"The cable disclosed the U.S. suspicion that Russian intelligence was behind two simultaneous explosions on the Georgian-Russian pipeline on Jan. 22, 2006. Later in the same day another explosion took out a high voltage line based in Russia that supplied Georgia with electricity."
"There was no response from the Russian government for four days," Mr. Bokeria said. "For one week in 2005 Georgia was left with no gas and electricity from Russia, causing shortages. We believe this was an act of Russian sabotage."
Russia waged covert war on Georgia starting in '04
Georgia
Explosions in southern Russia this morning severed the country's natural gas pipelines to Georgia, swiftly plunging Russia's neighbor into heat and electricity shortages and causing a diplomatic flare-up between the nations.
Explosions in Russia Cut Gas Pipelines to Georgia
Georgia
The bombings of two Russian-controlled natural gas pipelines high in the Caucasus Mountains this week - by one estimate sending a fireball nearly 200 meters into the sky - paralyzed Georgia and sent a message straight to Western Europe, which depends on Russian natural gas.
Russian pipeline blast sends shivers to Europe
August to October 2006
Georgia
Georgian parliament voted to integrate Georgia into NATO. Russia is not pleased.
"The Georgian parliament votes unanimously for a bill to integrate Georgia into NATO expanding upon the Partnership for Peace. This deteriorates relations with Russia which imposes sanctions and deports hundreds of Georgians who are deemed illegal immigrants. Georgia arrests four Russian army officers for spying."
A Timeline of Russian Aggression
Jan 2007 to July 2007
Estonia
Russia disapproved of Estonia's decisions to relocate the Bronze soldier of Tallinn, a Soviet era statue from the city center to a new gravesite [1]. Estonian parliament, ministries, banks, and newspapers were targeted with DDoS attacks [2].
Russia to Estonia: Don't move our statue
April 2008
Georgia
"The Kremlin supports the separatist movements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to disqualify Georgia from NATO and to stymie its western ambitions. Russian Defence Minister Ivanov declared that Georgia would automatically become an adversary to Russia if it joined NATO. On April 20, a Russian jet shoots down a Georgian reconnaissance drone flying over Abkhazia."
"Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed treaties with Georgia's South Ossetia and Abkhazia on Wednesday that commit Moscow to defend the breakaway regions from any Georgian attack."
Russia signs treaty to defend Georgia separatists
August 2008
Georgia
The war in Georgia lasted 5 days.
"On August 8, 2008, Russian forces began the invasion of Georgia, marking the start of Europe's first twenty-first century war. The conflict itself was over within a matter of days, but the repercussions of the Russo-Georgian War continue to reverberate thirteen years on, shaping the wider geopolitical environment."
The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: Putin's green light
Georgia
Russian planes dropped bombs this month within 15 meters (50 feet) of a pipeline that British oil company BP was in the process of reopening through Georgia, according to witnesses.
Residents on Friday showed Reuters correspondents deep craters alongside the pipeline, which runs between Azerbaijan’s capital Baku, on the Caspian Sea, and Georgia’s Black Sea port of Supsa.
Reuters reported on August 12 that Georgia had accused Russia of bombing the pipeline, although without causing serious damage. Russia denied any such attacks.
Craters show Russia just missed Georgian pipeline
Georgia
Georgian officials say Russian warplanes dropped bombs in an early Saturday raid close to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which pumps some 850,000 barrels of crude a day – or 1% of total global oil demand – from Azerbaijan to the Mediterranean. The bombs narrowly missed the line, but one exploded just 10 feet away from it.
Raids Suggest Russia Targeted Energy Pipelines
January 2009
Ukraine
"Gazprom cut off all supplies for Ukraine's use on January 1, after weeks of negotiations on outstanding debts and prices for 2009. Gazprom proposed to raise the price to $250 from $179.5. Ukraine said it was prepared to pay $201 and wanted to raise gas transit fees. Gazprom then raised the price again to $458."
TIMELINE: Gas crises between Russia and Ukraine
Chechnya
"By 2009, Russia had severely disabled the Chechen separatist movement and large-scale fighting ceased."
April 2009
Chechnya
Russia officially ends "Operations" in Chechnya.
Putin's approval and disapproval remains roughly the same for Putin until he announces he may run for president again.
Russia Ends Operations in Chechnya
December 2010
Putin hints that he may run for re-election, which would make it his third term. Protests had already begun and were happening regularly in and outside of Russia.
Putin's popularity would only decline and disapproval rise from 19% to 36% just before he retook office in 2012.
Vladimir Putin hints at another long stint as president
March 2012
Russia
Putin is elected for a third term, but his disapproval remains high and approval low. Russians protested as he was sworn after the election.
Protests as Putin sworn in as president for third term
January 2013
Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating fell this month to the lowest level since 2000, according to a poll by the independent Levada Center.
Sixty-two percent of Russians approve of Putin’s performance, the lowest since June 2000, according to the Jan. 18-21 poll of 1,596 people by the Moscow-based Levada Center. That’s down from 72 percent two years ago
Putin Approval Rating Falls to Lowest Since 2000: Poll
November 2013 to March 2014
Ukraine
Around this time, Ukrainians protest their leader Viktor Yanukovych's decision not to join the EU in exchange for money from Russia. After police begin beating and killing Ukrainian protestors, protests grow and culminate after over 100 Ukrainians are killed, mostly by snipers that evidence suggests were on or inside buildings. Yanukovych flees Ukraine with the help of Putin.
Putin: Russia helped Yanukovych to flee Ukraine
Ukraine
Emails show collaborators coordinated with the Kremlin and media reported about "separatists," who wanted to secede.
FrolovLeaks VII: Budgeting the "Russian Spring" Mayhem
Ukraine
From the earlier data analysis from Hoaxlines:
On March 1, 2014, the Russian parliament approved a troop deployment to Ukraine. By March 3, Kremlin-aligned groups had stormed the regional government building in Donetsk. The demonstrators demanded a split from Ukraine, but the protests had largely failed to produce the Kremlin's desired effect, according to leaked emails from the time between Russian and pro-Russian actors.
The strong response from Ukrainian law enforcement had deterred pro-Russian figures who emailed collaborators inside of Russia to complain about their struggle. Western leaders condemned Russia's actions in Ukraine on March 3, 2014.
At the height of the Ukraine-Nazi content surge on March 4, 2014, Putin claimed the military exercises were over. The following day as "Russian soldiers [blockaded] Ukrainian navy command ship Slavutych at the Crimean port of Sevastopol," Putin scoffed at requests to remove Russian forces from Crimea, claiming they were not under his command.
Within days, an international voting observation team would be refused entry to Crimea with a warning shot. By April 2014, pro-Russian actors would seize the Regional Administration of Donetsk and declare it a "republic."
July 2014
Ukraine Netherlands
"Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was travelling over conflict-hit Ukraine on 17 July 2014 when it disappeared from radar."
Investigations concluded Russia was responsible.
MH17 Ukraine plane crash: What we know
July 2018
Russia
Putin's approval rating tumbles and disapproval rating rises. "The main reason for the slump in ratings is the government's proposal to increase the retirement age from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 60 for women," according to an article from Foreign Affairs from 2018.
Why Putin's Approval Ratings Are Declining Sharply
Protests ensue. Younger Russians led the protests because older Russians were too afraid. NBC News reported that protestors marched toward Red Square saying "Down with the czar!"
More than 1,000 detained as protests over pensions sweep Russia
November 2021
Russia
Putin's approval did not recover from the proposal to increase pension ages. Only in November 2021, with the heavily publicized buildup at the border does his approval increase and disapproval decrease.
February 2022
Ukraine
Russia invaded Ukraine for a second time. Putin's approval peaked after the invasion, remaining high despite well-documented war crimes.
September 2022
Russia Ukraine
In September 2022, when Russia "partially" mobilized 300,000 soldiers, Putin's approval finally takes a hit and declines. Widely reported Russian losses may also play a factor here, too.
STATISTA: Do you approve of the activities of Vladimir Putin?
Note about the data
Notes about the data
The graph depicts the approval rate among Russians for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Respondents were interviewed in their homes and asked if they "approve," "I don't approve," or wish to give "no answer," in response to the question "Do you generally approve or disapprove of Vladimir Putin's activities as President (Prime Minister) of Russia?"
- The data were collected by the autonomous non-profit organization the Yuri Levada Analytical Center, a Russian non-governmental organization that has been polling since the 1980s. The Ministry of Justice includes the Center in its register of non-profit organizations performing the functions of a "foreign agent," which often means a group received money from somewhere outside of Russia and reports accurately.
- Although data from sources under Kremlin control must always be viewed with skepticism due to potential state interference, Levada is referenced by scholars in publications such as Foreign Affairs.
tags: Hoaxlines Russia autocracy Timeline
Citations
Herzog, S. (2011). Revisiting the Estonian Cyber Attacks: Digital Threats and Multinational Responses. Journal of Strategic Security, 4(2), 49–60.; 2) Mardiste, D. (2007). Russia to Estonia: Don't move our statue. Reuters.; 3) Yasmann, V. (16:23:37Z). Monument Dispute Gets Dirty. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. ↩︎
