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# System prepended metadata

title: Open Predictions Site

---

# Open Predictions Site

- Users make public predictions with dates and outcomes.
- They can also register predictions made by other people, for example in the media.
- A list/calendar shows upcoming predictions.
- A score list and user profiles shows predictions that was determined true or false by the users and verified sources.
- The predictions should be formulated in such a way that it will be easy and quantifiable to determine if they came true or not at the specified date.
- It's a fun site for wild predictions, but a serious side to follow up political promises that otherwise disappear in the torrent of news.

# Issues to Solve

- Guiding users to submit predictions that are wasy to call true or false
- Designing a mechanism for determining true/false
  - If voting, how to prevent bots
  - If external sources, how to verify
- How to score result?
  - True/False as absolute or spectrum?
  - How to weight difficulty of prediction, should users vote on likelihood that it comes true?
  - Should distnace of prediction in time lead to higher score?

# Inputs

- Browser plugin like a bookmarklet
  - Select a quote, move date forward, save with URL
- As Calendar plugin
  - Sync your calendar and add new events on the date your predictions should be true. Creation date of prediction is added.
# Outputs 
- Subscribe to calendars
  - All, Media, Friends