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# Abstract

This paper examines animal replacement behavior for 2,332 Wisconsin dairy farms during the period 2011-2014. 
I represent farm behavior using a dynamic decision model and incorporate post-pregnancy *unplanned mortality* as a novel source of uncertainty that drives reproductive and replacement decision making. 
My model explicitly accounts for cow age, and herd-specific heterogeneous beliefs regarding the probability of unplanned mortality and age-specific lactation dynamics. 
Preliminary results suggest farmers expect unplanned mortality costs of approximately 400 USD, roughtly 25% of the average annual profit of a dairy cow. 
Results show significant behavioral differences across small and large dairy herds with relatively large dairies exhibiting behavior consistent with shorter-lived cows and higher mortalits costs. 