# Rising pressure on rupee clouds RBI's February rate cut prospects
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is facing increasing pressure to cut interest rates in February, but this is being clouded by the rising pressure on the rupee. The rupee has been under pressure due to a number of factors, including the rising cost of foreign exchange interventions, the decline in India's foreign exchange reserves, and the US Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance.
India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $50 billion in the current quarter (Q3FY25) as of December 13, according to the latest RBI data. The US Federal Reserve's latest dot plot revealed a significantly more hawkish stance, with only two rate cuts projected for 2025 — half the number anticipated in September — and just as many additional cuts expected in 2026.
As a result of these factors, analysts are now saying that the opportunity for a rate cut by the RBI is narrowing, with chances of a cut in February looking uncertain. Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said that the new Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in 2025 will be facing substantially different policy challenges along with a diverse macro and global landscape. She added that with mounting FX pressure and increasing cost of FX intervention, the conventional rate cut window is only going to get tighter.
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