--- tags: math, memo, macro --- # Dynamic Programming in Macroeconomics ## Motivation ### Problem Suppose an agent who can live forever wants to optimize her utility as the following problem, \begin{gather*} \sup_{\{x_t\}_{t=0}^\infty} \sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t u(x_t, x_{t+1})\\ \text{s.t. } x_{t+1} \in \Gamma(x_t), t=0, 1, 2, \dots\\ x_0 \in X \text{ given.} \end{gather*} First, she has an exponential discounting utility, $$ U=\sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t u_t, $$ the total utility is the weighted average of instantaneous utility, $u_t$, in each period. Second, at period $t$, she can choose $x_t$ from the set $\Gamma(x_{t-1})$. This decision will jointly decide her utility at period $t, t+1$ and affect $\Gamma(x_{t})$, the choice set of the next period. Third, $x_0$ is given, so her first choice is picking $x_1$ among $\Gamma(x_{0})$. Clearly, the solution to this problem is a sequence, $\{x_i\}_{i=1}^\infty$, and depends on $x_0$. How can we solve this problem for her? ### Similarity One observation is that every period is **similar** except $x_0$. At period $1$, the agent needs to solve, $$ \sup_{\{x_t\}_{t=0}^\infty} \sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t u(x_t, x_{t+1}), $$ given $x_0$. At period $2$, the problem becomes, $$ \sup_{\{x_t\}_{t=1}^\infty} \sum_{t=1}^\infty \beta^{t-1} u(x_t, x_{t+1}), $$ given $x_1$. The exponential discounting utility ensures the agent is time consistent, she will choose $x_{t+k}$ at period $t+k$ just at she planned at period $t$. Hence, we can rewrite this problem in another way. ### Dynamic Programming Suppose the following function exists, $$ v(x) = \sup_{y \in \Gamma(x)} [u(x, y) + \beta v(y)] \quad \forall x \in X $$ It should have the following property: $$ v(x_t) = u(x_t, x_{t+1}) + \beta v(x_{t+1}), \quad t=0, 1, 2, \dots $$ It can be shown that under certain condition, $v$ exists and is the value function of the optimization problem, \begin{gather*} v(x_0) = \sup_{\{x_t\}_{t=0}^\infty} \sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t u(x_t, x_{t+1})\\ \text{s.t. } x_{t+1} \in \Gamma(x_t), t=0, 1, 2, \dots\\ x_0 \in X \text{ given,} \end{gather*} which can help us solve the problem. However, we need to prove $v$ exists first. ## Contraction mapping theorem The contraction mapping theorem is also called Banach's fixed point theorem. ### Contraction mapping Let $(X,d)$ be a complete metric space. Then a map $T : X \to X$ is called a contraction mapping on $X$ if there exists $\beta \in [0,1)$ such that $$ d\left(T(x), T(y) \right) \le \beta d(x, y) $$ for all $x,y \in X.$ ### Statement Let $(X,d)$ be a non-empty complete metric space with a contraction mapping $T:X\to X.$ Then $T$ admits a unique fixed-point $x^{*}$ in $X$ (i.e. $T(x^{*})=x^{*}$). Furthermore, $x^{*}$ can be found as follows: start with an arbitrary element $x_{0}\in X$ and define a sequence $\{x_n\}_{n=0}^\infty$ as $$x_{n}=T(x_{n-1}) \text{ for } n\ge 1.$$ Then $$\lim _{n\to \infty }x_{n}=x^{*}.$$ <details> <summary> Proof: </summary> Arbitrarily pick $x_0 \in X$, and construct $\{x_n\}_{n=0}^\infty$ as above description. We want to show this sequence is a Cauchy sequence. First, we have the inequality, $$ d(x_{n+1},x_{n})\leq \beta^{n}d(x_{1},x_{0}) $$ Let $m,n\in \mathbb {N}$ such that $m > n$, \begin{aligned} d(x_{m},x_{n})&\leq d(x_{m},x_{m-1})+d(x_{m-1},x_{m-2})+\cdots +d(x_{n+1},x_{n})\\ &\leq \beta^{m-1}d(x_{1},x_{0}) + \beta^{m-2}d(x_{1},x_{0})+\cdots + \beta^{n}d(x_{1},x_{0})\\ &=\beta^{n}d(x_{1},x_{0})\sum _{k=0}^{m-n-1}\beta^{k}\\ &\leq \beta^{n}d(x_{1},x_{0})\sum _{k=0}^{\infty }\beta^{k}\\ &=\beta^{n}d(x_{1},x_{0})\left({\frac {1}{1-\beta}}\right),\end{aligned} where the first inequality is based on the triangular inequality of metric, the second inequality is by the inequality of contraction mapping, the third inequality holds since $\beta \ge 0$. Let $\varepsilon > 0$ be arbitrary. Since $\beta \in [0, 1)$, we can find a large enough $N \in \mathbb{N}$ so that $$\beta^{N}<{\frac {\varepsilon (1-\beta)}{d(x_{1},x_{0})}}.$$ Therefore, by choosing $m$ and $n$ greater than $N$ we may write: $$ d(x_{m},x_{n})\leq \beta^{n}d(x_{1},x_{0})\left({\frac {1}{1-\beta}}\right)<\left({\frac {\varepsilon (1-\beta)}{d(x_{1},x_{0})}}\right)d(x_{1},x_{0})\left({\frac {1}{1-\beta}}\right)=\varepsilon. $$ This proves that the $\{x_n\}_{n=0}^\infty$ is a Cauchy sequence. By completeness of $(X,d)$, the sequence has a limit $x^{*}\in X.$ Furthermore, $x^{*}$ must be a fixed point of T: $$ x^{*}=\lim _{n\to \infty }x_{n}=\lim _{n\to \infty }T(x_{n-1})=T\left(\lim _{n\to \infty }x_{n-1}\right)=T(x^{*}).$$ As a contraction mapping, $T$ is continuous, so bringing the limit inside $T$ was justified. Lastly, $T$ cannot have more than one fixed point in $(X,d)$, since any pair of distinct fixed points $p_1$ and $p_2$ would contradict the contraction of $T$: $$ d(T(p_{1}),T(p_{2}))=d(p_{1},p_{2})>\beta d(p_{1},p_{2}).$$ </details> ## Blackwell's Sufficiency Condition It is non-tritivial to check whether a transformation is a contraction mapping or not. The following theorem can help us ease the burden. We need an additional definition for the comparisona in functional spaces. ### Comparison Let $B(X)$ be a space of functions define on $X$. For any $f, g \in B(X)$, we say $f \ge g$ if $f(x) \ge g(x)$ for all $x \in X$. ### Statement Let $X \subset \mathbb{R}^n$ and $B(X)$ is the space of functions on $X$ with sup norm $\|\cdot \|$ . Suppose $T: B(X) \to B(X)$ is an operator such that 1. $T$ is **monotone**: For any $f, g \in B(X)$, $f \ge g$ implies $T(f) \ge T(g)$. 2. $T$ **discounts constant functions**: For any $f \in B(X)$ and a constant function $A$, we have $$T(f + A) \le Tf + \beta A \text{ for some } 0 \le \beta <1.$$ Then $T$ is a contraction mapping with $\beta$. <details> <summary> Proof: </summary> Based on sup norm, for all $f, g \in B(X)$ , $f \le g + d(f, g)$. Applying two properties of $T$, we have $$T(f) \le T (g + d(f, g)) \le T (f) + \beta d(f, g).$$ Exchanging the roles of $f$ and $g$ and using the same logic implies $$T (f) \le T (g) + \beta d(f, g).$$ Combining these two inequalities gives $|T (f) − T (g)| \le \beta d(f, g)$ or $d(T (f), T (g)) \le \beta d(f, g)$. Note: this proof can be applied to general functional spaces with sup norm. However, we only consider bounded and continuous functions since we need the space to be complete. </details> ## Model ### Notation - $X$: the set of possible values for the state variable $x$ - $\Gamma: X \to X$: $\Gamma(x)$ is the set of feasible values for the state variable next period if the current state is $x$. - $A$: the graph of $\Gamma$, i.e. $$A= \{(x, y) \in X \times X: y \in \Gamma(x)\}.$$ - $u: A \to \mathbb{R}$: the one-period return function. - $\beta$: the (stationary) discount factor. ### Bellman operator $$ (Tf)(x) = \max_{a \in \Gamma(x)} \{ u(x, a) + \beta f(a)\}, $$ ### Value function If the functional space is complete and the Bellman operator is a contraction mapping, by the contraction mapping theorem/Banach fixed point theorem, there is a unique $v$ such that $Tv = v$. The value function $v$ is also a limit of Bellman operation, i.e., $$ v = \lim_{k \to \infty} T^k(f). $$ ### Policy function We use $\pi$ to denote the policy function, which is the argument in the optimal question. ## Existence Let $C$ be the space of continuous and bounded real-valued functions endowed with the sup-norm, which ensures $C$ is a complete metric space. The following proof applies the maximum theorem. Suppose 1. $x\in X \subset \mathbb{R}^l$ and $X$ is a convex set. 2. $u \in C$. 3. $\beta \in (0,1)$ 4. $\Gamma$ is a non-empty, continuous (u.h.c and l.h.c.), and compact-valued correspondence. 5. $f \in C$. Then $T$ is a contraction mapping. ## Reference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banach_fixed-point_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_norm Stokey, N. L. (1989). Recursive methods in economic dynamics. Harvard University Press. Ljungqvist, L., & Sargent, T. J. (2018). Recursive macroeconomic theory. MIT press.