# Thiel Fellowship Thoughts
First I discuss TF benefits and after realizing that they aren't super significant the discussion moves towards whether or not dropping out right now makes sense.
# TF Benefit Dimensions
##### Prestige
Prestige is definitely real, but its given to 20 people a year and some of them seem a bit lame. The perception of the fellows seems to have diminished over the past few years and i'm not sure the boost is a step-change over MIT. I would also rather build prestige based on something I did rather than a small organization giving it to me.
##### Fundraising
This is a corollary to the previous point. I'm not sure how much additional fundraising benefit I get over MIT + track record + Prod. Ethan raised his round before Thiel? I don't see anything here that strikes me as absolutely [ridiculous](https://cstead1.medium.com/a-complete-list-of-all-thiel-fellows-and-their-companies-86d42706cecb).
##### Network
Delian has some interesting points in a [blog post](https://delian.io/thirty).

I feel quite lucky that at age 19 I stumbled into a core set of peers through the Thiel Fellowship / SF that have been my closest friends, but also strongest motivators to accomplish great things, since many of them have accomplished great things already.

It is possible that there is a step change improvement in this regard since I imagine the fellows will all be Jacob-caliber. It would significantly increase my eigenvector score though + there's some chance I have some remarkable interaction with Thiel and he becomes a personal champion.

Dropping out of MIT to start a startup and being awarded the Thiel Fellowship at 19 sets you up on quite the pedestal. I truly thought I was the best thing since sliced bread and was guaranteed to be on a path for greatness.  
  
Instead, my ego failed me, my first startup failed, and the only thing that got me to where I am today was admitting I knew nothing and needed to learn from the best if I wanted to be amongst the best.

This isn't relevant to this section but feels relevant to me 😂.
##### Money
20 days of revenue and its what tuition would be anyways so trivial benefit.
##### Magic Mentorship
Is there some magic mentorship that happens with the Thiel Fellows or is it pretty much just a name thing? I could see Peter Thiel becoming a mentor to be very beneficial but does this actually happen.
### Summary
In terms of tangible benefits from TF, I don't think there is anything that Prod doesn't have. The primary benefit would be a wider network of possible friends.
# Decision Dimensions
I don't think TF provides a step-change in personal benefits. The decision to do it would be based upon on my inclination to drop out now + the marginal perceived benefits of TF. Given that I said in the beginning of January that I would only drop out if I had something with huge traction, it seems strange to consider dropping out because someone gave me an award.
#### Aeolian Opportunity Timeframe
There are hundreds of journaling tools in existence and dozens of AI companion type applications - they all completely miss the mark, even Rewind which raised at $300m+. Unlikely that someone starts something like this up unless they take my idea. This either means I have some very unique insight about the way people work, overfit the way I operate to everyone else, underestimate the feasibility of my tool. Some combination of the three.
#### Is school actually the right answer?
I received a huge amount of value from classes in high school. Even the more useless classes like English have had a significant impact on my life (e.g I am much more adept at perceiving hidden meaning in what someone is saying). It felt like everything made me smarter. The worst high school English class I had was still much better than the writing class I took last semester.
My first semester classes sucked since I didn't ASE what I should have since I thought everything would be way harder than it actually was. It did give me time to make Stakedflip though. This semester I am taking 9.00, 18.600, 6.1210, 18.06, and 8.022 which is a big improvement over last semester but still not super amazing. 18.06/8.022 are intentionally not novel to leave more time for Prod/Thunderhead/Aeolian. I am pretty confident that I'll learn a lot in future semesters though. I have even considered staying an extra year since my interest range is quite wide (math, physics, cs, neuro)
#### Focus v. Spread (Or, And)
Alex asked me "If you only did school, wrestling, or thunderhead when you were in high school, how significantly different would the outcome be?" Although I could have gotten published in nature, won a national championship, or made a unicorn if I went all-in onto one thing, I don't think any of those outcomes would have been likely. Likely case would have been a marginal improvement. My instinct is to opt for the "and" which does often frustrate me because prioritization has lots of overhead but it just feels necessary. Doing a wide variety of things has made me who I am and I think it has to continue.
#### Nature of Life
Fully focusing on Aeolian is slightly anti-thetical because i'll be using the thing to make the thing, rather than current path which would be making the thing to use the thing in my broader life. Due to complexity of the tool I think its really helpful to have additional life experiences to test it on.
It's also slightly weird to think about what I would do. Get an apartment somewhere in Boston and just think and work on Aeolian all day? This sounds interesting but when I did this for Thunderhead it was never super fruitful (although much different since the work was more menial and less passionate).
#### Risk Averseness
I am generally a very risk averse and cautious person. I often opt for the safer or more steady path of achieving things. I feel that my current plan and trajectory will work and has the highest EV. Analogous to this situation, despite wanting to join a fraternity, I did not end up taking the plunge during rush since I didn't feel an immediate sense of belonging.
I'm not in a rush to get where I want to be. I've never made rash decisions this has done well for me - do I need to start now?
### Actual Right Answer
I could go either way. If I woke up tomorrow and was doing TF I would be satisfied, as well as if I continued on current trajectory. However, all of the reasons above lean me towards not doing it at the current moment since it does not perfectly align with my characteristics currently. But maybe through my RDE I will realize that these need to be overhauled. After writing this the confidence for each decision is almost equal.

I think I just need need to work as hard as I would if I was dropped out but now.

Maybe this is due to lack of conviction or some internal hedging but I think I just need to make everything happen. Standards need to increase for this to be possible.