# Quick Note on Imperial College COVID-19 Report 9

---

### Quick Note

（主要擷自該報告的摘要）

以人口模式與接觸途徑為基礎，模擬與評估「非醫藥介入」(non-pharmaceutical interventions, NPIs)措施對 COVID-19 死亡率的影響，僅以英國與美國為研究對象。

報告中描述兩種策略：

* 「防治」(mitigation)：減緩但不見得完全停止疾病的傳播，目的在降低對於醫護體系的尖峰需求，同時保護高危險群體不被感染；
* 「制壓」(suppression)：讓疫情不再成長，減低案例數到低水平，並無限期保持這種狀態。

兩種策略都不容易。最佳「防治」政策需同時施行：疑似案例要居家隔離、案例同住家人需同時居家檢疫、對老人與高危險群保持社會距離。但這只能降低醫護體系的尖峰需求 2/3，同時降低死亡人口 1/2。數十萬人將死亡且醫療體系（尤其加護病房）受到平常數倍的壓力。

對英國與美國來說，「制壓」應是比較好的策略。這需同時施行「防治」的作法，且全體人口之間都要保持社會距離。而且可能必須關閉學校與大學，但同時這對醫療人員出勤有影響。「制壓」策略很困難，因為要維持到疫苗生產（18個月之後），不然疾病傳染又回復。社會距離或依疫情的輕重，以間斷反覆方式施行。中國與南韓「制壓」經驗的長期效果，還待觀察，能否降低這些措施在社會與經濟的成本，尤其關鍵。

(2020-03-18)

---

### What

Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

### Who

Neil M Ferguson et. al. (Imperial College London)

### Where

<https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/>

### When

2020-03-16

---

### Reactions

* <https://theodi.org/content_story/covid-19-making-data-and-models-open-is-part-of-the-fight-against-it-governments-must-act-now>

"Governments around the world should be openly publishing the data and models that underpin their decision-making around to Covid-19 pandemic, enabling people to understand the decisions, scientists to scrutinise and improve them, and countries to support each other."

* <https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-mrc-centre-for-global-infectious-disease-analysis-report-9-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-npis-to-reduce-covid-19-mortality-and-healthcare-demand/>

"There are a number of different scenarios modelled in the report which have informed the current government advice. The one step which will need further consideration is whether or not closing schools and universities would have much impact."

"The accuracy of such models might be better-informed by the availability of more UK-specific data, which could be achieved by ramping up community testing for the virus on a large scale, as achieved in Korea, for example."

"It would still be useful to know the full set of evidence that is informing decision-making, both in the UK and across other countries."

"I would love to know how often the authors plan to update this as new data becomes available."