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# System prepended metadata

title: Subscription Prediction

---

# Subscription Prediction

[2020-03-13]
* prediction of transactions (remove ISP and auto-subscription users)
* xgboost model
    * period A (12 weeks)
    * ![](https://i.imgur.com/PumaXLA.png)
    * period B (12 weeks)
    * ![](https://i.imgur.com/kfatw3c.png)



* pearson correlation with transactions (remove ISP and auto-subscription users) (2010~2019)
![](https://i.imgur.com/noimlCQ.png)
* pearson correlation with transactions (remove ISP and auto-subscription users) (2017~2019)
![](https://i.imgur.com/RUed8YK.png)
* pearson correlation with transactions (remove ISP and auto-subscription users) (2019~)
![](https://i.imgur.com/7bM6RKP.png)







[2020-03-11]
* Downloads with spotify

![](https://i.imgur.com/tJ9xEuf.png)
![](https://i.imgur.com/5BtlMPU.png)
![](https://i.imgur.com/nK3fu0L.png)



* trans stats
http://redash-rdc.kkinternal.com/queries/1898/source#4263

* new user trans stats
http://redash-rdc.kkinternal.com/queries/1899/source#4266

* 30-days one time trans conversion
![](https://i.imgur.com/KXs0T3I.png)

[2020-02-26]

* monthly conversion -> weekly transaction
* weekly data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NPcUtujr1MGQTy4wBUvqenWJjJFm0tBDibN-LR171zk/edit?usp=sharing
* transaction total prediction (with AR model)
    * ![](https://i.imgur.com/iXJWgYk.png)
* split with user type
    * AR
        * old user (registered more than 3 months)
            * ![](https://i.imgur.com/whwFqVB.png)
        * new user (registered less than 3 months)
            * ![](https://i.imgur.com/MfBQvyM.png)
    * STL decomposition
        * old user (registered more than 3 months)
            * ![](https://i.imgur.com/PgFUo3G.png)
        * new user (registered less than 3 months)
            * ![](https://i.imgur.com/PMiYDpX.png)
    * ACF & PACF
        * old user (registered more than 3 months)
            * ![](https://i.imgur.com/ViQ6xMv.png)
        * new user (registered less than 3 months)
            * ![](https://i.imgur.com/QNohmXh.png)
    * SARIMAX
        * old user (registered more than 3 months)
            * ![](https://i.imgur.com/dm5f0uZ.png)
        * new user (registered less than 3 months)
            * ![](https://i.imgur.com/rjlyALl.png)
    * VAR (variables: register, play count, download)
        * new user (registered less than 3 months)
            * ![](https://i.imgur.com/rZxhGhQ.png)
