# Subscription Prediction [2020-03-13] * prediction of transactions (remove ISP and auto-subscription users) * xgboost model * period A (12 weeks) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/PumaXLA.png) * period B (12 weeks) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/kfatw3c.png) * pearson correlation with transactions (remove ISP and auto-subscription users) (2010~2019) ![](https://i.imgur.com/noimlCQ.png) * pearson correlation with transactions (remove ISP and auto-subscription users) (2017~2019) ![](https://i.imgur.com/RUed8YK.png) * pearson correlation with transactions (remove ISP and auto-subscription users) (2019~) ![](https://i.imgur.com/7bM6RKP.png) [2020-03-11] * Downloads with spotify ![](https://i.imgur.com/tJ9xEuf.png) ![](https://i.imgur.com/5BtlMPU.png) ![](https://i.imgur.com/nK3fu0L.png) * trans stats http://redash-rdc.kkinternal.com/queries/1898/source#4263 * new user trans stats http://redash-rdc.kkinternal.com/queries/1899/source#4266 * 30-days one time trans conversion ![](https://i.imgur.com/KXs0T3I.png) [2020-02-26] * monthly conversion -> weekly transaction * weekly data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NPcUtujr1MGQTy4wBUvqenWJjJFm0tBDibN-LR171zk/edit?usp=sharing * transaction total prediction (with AR model) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/iXJWgYk.png) * split with user type * AR * old user (registered more than 3 months) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/whwFqVB.png) * new user (registered less than 3 months) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/MfBQvyM.png) * STL decomposition * old user (registered more than 3 months) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/PgFUo3G.png) * new user (registered less than 3 months) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/PMiYDpX.png) * ACF & PACF * old user (registered more than 3 months) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/ViQ6xMv.png) * new user (registered less than 3 months) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/QNohmXh.png) * SARIMAX * old user (registered more than 3 months) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/dm5f0uZ.png) * new user (registered less than 3 months) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/rjlyALl.png) * VAR (variables: register, play count, download) * new user (registered less than 3 months) * ![](https://i.imgur.com/rZxhGhQ.png)