Treasury Burn Rate Scenario Analysis
This analysis aims to show the different scenarios regarding MolochDAO's treasury and its grant allocation. Specifically, it considers three main factors: (1) the yearly USD price increase of ETH, (2) the increase in grant budget as a proportion of the ETH price increase, and (3) the budget allocation to the ReallyBoringGuild (RBG), for managing MolochDAO's operations. The model starts from 2021 and runs until 2035.
Of these factors, the most important yet most complex factor is the price increase in ETH. It is difficult to know exact pricing trend of ETH on an annual basis given the many factors that go into its price. Modeling out a scientific ETH price prediction model is beyond the scope of this report. Therefore the main assumption that has been made is that the price will continue to increase on a yearly basis and the only difference will be how much it will increase.
Regarding the RBG budget allocation, this was kept at a constant 30%. This reflects the typical operations budget allocation of non-profit which usually ranges from 30-40%.
Lastly, the budget allocated to grants has a starting point of 20% based on 2021 numbers and is capped at 80% as it increases on a yearly basis. Without this cap, it would keep increasing past 100% of the treasury which is not possible.
Given these, the goal then for this analysis is to present a framework on how to approach the budgeting of the MolochDAO treasury on a yearly basis given possible changes in ETH price while not being restrictive on the exact allocation of funds.