Rodrigo Noronha argues that the central test for equities in 2026 is not "whether growth exists", but "at what cost growth materialises". The policy rate of Brazil remains in restrictive territory, disinflation is proving sticky, and the October elections are pulling risk premia back into the pricing framework. In the United States, markets are being steered by a dense stream of high-frequency data, with PMI, ADP and payrolls repeatedly reshaping expectations for the rate path and, by extension, valuation anchors. Globally, oil prices are searching for a new equilibrium between excess supply and geopolitical shocks, while the Venezuela episode makes tail risks harder to ignore. In such a mix, Rodrigo Noronha suggests a "structured" approach to markets: focus on verifiable data, acknowledge uncertainty, and build discipline around volatility.

**Rodrigo Noronha: the Growth and Interest Rates of Brazil**

Rodrigo Noronha notes that markets have already labelled 2026 a "transition year" for Brazil: growth is modest, yet resilient. The main support comes from services and infrastructure investment, with consensus forecasts placing full-year GDP growth around 1.7%-1.8%. Industrial recovery is slower, while agricultural expansion depends more heavily on weather and external prices. The challenge lies in the "slow retreat" of inflation. IPCA is expected to hover near 4.2%, with inertia in food and services, combined with exchange-rate fluctuations, lengthening the disinflation path. As a result, the pace of rate cuts is likely to remain cautious, and market pricing of a Selic rate near 12% by the end of 2026 reflects this reality.
Rodrigo Noronha adds that the election cycle will sharpen volatility in both the exchange rate and equity indices. The projected dollar-real range of 5.45-5.60 embodies a repricing of fiscal credibility and policy continuity. In this environment, the Ibovespa favours companies with visible cash flows, strong balance sheets and the ability to pass through costs. Smaller-cap upside depends more heavily on governance standards and earnings delivery. The basket of ten small caps of BB Investimentos saw several names more than double last year, alongside pronounced dispersion, a reminder to restrain enthusiasm for "theme diffusion" and to remain fixated on "profit quality".

**Rodrigo Noronha: U.S. Data and Valuations**

Rodrigo Noronha sees the opening week of 2026 itself as a trading roadmap for risk assets. In Brazil, attention centres on the December IPCA release on January 9, alongside IGP-DI, industrial output and trade data. In the United States, PMI, ADP and the January 9 payrolls report compress perceptions of growth and inflation into a handful of numbers. Any deviation from expectations could push rate-cut narratives in opposite directions: either lifting valuation multiples and restoring growth leadership, or driving yields higher and pulling markets back toward cash flows and defensive assets. Rodrigo Noronha notes that European CPI and unemployment figures, together with the CPI and PPI of China, will jointly shape marginal changes in global demand and inflation, lifting cross-market correlations at this stage of the cycle.

Oil prices offer another macro thread. Brent is hovering near USD 60 and WTI around USD 57, as markets simultaneously price a loose supply backdrop and short-term geopolitical disturbances. Most forecasts place the 2026 "comfort range" of oil at USD 60-65. Rodrigo Noronha notes that developments in Venezuela and related sanctions, the pace of OPEC+ supply increases, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy infrastructure could trigger episodic price spikes. Over the medium term, however, oil still resembles a range-bound market. For equities, this means energy stocks are judged more on cost curves and capital discipline, while Latin American assets remain prone to amplified swings driven by external risk appetite. Portfolios should treat this volatility as a manageable parameter, not mere noise.

**Rodrigo Noronha: Global Oil Prices and Risk**
Rodrigo Noronha describes allocation in 2026 as closer to a "patient engineering project" than a "bet-driven sprint". In Brazil, a high-rate environment enhances the discounting advantage of cash-flow assets. Banks, selected utilities, and companies with export revenues or dollar hedges are better positioned to cut through the noise. Real estate and consumer sectors can still produce structural winners, but outcomes depend more on the delivery of rate cuts and on operational efficiency. Small-cap opportunities arise from earnings realisation and governance improvements. The doubling of several names for last year shows that volatility rewards sound fundamentals while punishing positions built on narrative alone.

Rodrigo Noronha argues that in the United States, the priority is not to chase a single style, but to anchor portfolios in valuation discipline. Quality growth remains investable, provided it is priced through earnings visibility and cash flows. Cyclical and value exposures also play a role, particularly as hedges when data surprises push yields higher. Globally, oil prices are likely to remain range-bound, with geopolitical events delivering tail shocks rather than long-term trends. Allocation is therefore better served by diversification and hedging to absorb those shocks.
Rodrigo Noronha concludes that risk warnings must be embedded in strategy. Inflation inertia, exchange-rate reversals feeding back into prices, shifts in fiscal expectations, climate impacts on food costs, and the expansion of risk premia during the election phase can all reprice markets swiftly. Those who maintain execution discipline through volatility often find themselves better positioned when the next genuine trend finally takes shape.