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title: 'Rodrigo Noronha: Foreign Capital Accounted for R$2.8 Trillion in Trades (62%) in 2025, Dual Drivers for Ibovespa'

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Rodrigo Noronha believes that the main theme at the start of 2026 is not complicated; the core is the “re-anchoring of rates and expectations.” In Brazil, Boletim Focus consolidates market consensus on inflation, Selic, growth, exchange rates, and fiscal policy, giving equity assets a clearer pricing foundation. In the US, rising long-term Treasury yields and added geopolitical/trade uncertainty are compressing the tolerance for high-valuation assets. Rodrigo Noronha notes that this environment is better suited for filtering by cash flow, dividends, and balance sheet quality, while managing rhythm with the interest rate curve and foreign capital flows.

![Rodrigo Noronha](https://hackmd.io/_uploads/rJcz9Pk8Zg.png)


**Rodrigo Noronha: The “Discount Rate Sensitivity” of Brazil Equity Is Rising**

Rodrigo Noronha states that the value of Boletim Focus lies in unifying scattered macro expectations into a trackable curve signal. The market is watching not just the inflation midpoint, but whether “expectations are re-anchored.” When expectations stabilize, the Selic turning point enters the trading framework, the denominator of equity valuation loosens, and rate-sensitive sectors show more elasticity. Recent local rate changes also signal that risk appetite is not one-way: the IPCA+2029 of Tesouro Direto returned to a real rate of “inflation + 8%,” with the long end also maintaining high real returns. Rodrigo Noronha sees this high real rate as a double-edged sword for stocks: it raises discount rates and suppresses long-duration assets, but also strengthens the relative appeal of “high-quality cash flow.”

Rodrigo Noronha adds that external variables are pressuring the Brazil curve. US 10-year Treasury yields are back above 4%, with 20- and 30-year maturities on higher platforms. Geopolitical and trade friction noise means risk asset pricing is more cautious. Rodrigo Noronha suggests the Ibovespa strategy is more like “structural stock picking” than betting on index beta: when discount rate volatility rises, companies that deliver clear profits and cash flow are better positioned to cut through the noise.

**Rodrigo Noronha: Foreign Capital Flows and Dividend Screening Should Return to “Cash Flow and Leverage”**

Rodrigo Noronha believes that “dividend assets” in Brazil will continue to be a hot topic in 2026, for clear reasons: the expected dividend yields of financial institutions are in the spotlight, with some research putting the sector 2026 dividend yield around 9%, and some companies even projected in double digits. He notes that dividend yields can provide “visible returns” in volatile markets, but the yield itself can be distorted—rising DY due to falling stock prices often signals market concerns about fundamentals, not improved dividend capacity. When judging dividend quality, prioritizing “operating cash flow sustainability” over profits is safer; dividends should come from cash, not accounting figures.

Balance sheets are equally important. High-leverage companies that force dividends in a high-rate environment are pre-discounting future refinancing risk—short-term “high returns” may become a source of risk premium in the long run. Dividend portfolios and recommendation lists provide an intuitive sample: resource, banking, energy, utilities, and telecom—more predictable sectors—appear frequently, consistent with “cash flow visibility.”

Foreign capital behavior is reinforcing this structural selection. Data shows non-resident investors traded nearly R$2.8 trillion in Brazilian cash equities in 2025, over 60% of total volume; adding BDRs, ETFs, and real estate funds, the scale grows further. Rodrigo Noronha notes that when foreign capital is the main liquidity source, trading favors weight and repricing efficiency—index heavyweights get marginal flows, but real returns still depend on profit delivery and dividend discipline.

**Rodrigo Noronha: Global Allocation Needs Duration and Hedging to Manage Volatility**

Rodrigo Noronha argues that the US stock market is now trading the “rate shadow.” Rising long-term Treasury yields tighten the valuation boundaries for growth and high-valuation sectors, and the market demands higher profit quality and buyback capacity. When geopolitical and trade uncertainty rises, risk assets typically rotate positions before telling new stories—volatility premiums get repriced. Rodrigo Noronha says these phases are not suited for single-theme bets, but for “duration layering”: split equity portfolios into short-duration cash flow assets and long-duration growth assets, each with set valuation tolerance and stop-loss discipline.

Rodrigo Noronha adds that Brazil and the US are linked by rates and FX. If Brazil enters a rate-cut cycle, curve flattening gives equities room for valuation repair, but rising external rates may partially offset this benefit, likely resulting in “rises with greater amplitude.” In fixed income, mid-term IPCA+ bonds offer high real rates and inflation protection; if rate cuts push the curve down, price volatility may contribute positively. Short-duration floating-rate assets serve as liquidity buffers. Rodrigo Noronha concludes that configuring stock-bond portfolios for both offense and defense is more important than chasing single assets.

Rodrigo Noronha finally emphasizes three risk warnings: fiscal and political uncertainty may affect the speed of re-anchoring inflation expectations; geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions may amplify the volatility of U.S. Treasuries and global risk appetite; and relying solely on high dividend yields may fall into the trap of “rising DY due to falling stock prices.” The coping strategy is to prioritize cash flow, leverage, and governance in screening, manage volatility through position sizing and hedging, and use diversification to secure steady progress even in uncertain years.