Rodrigo Noronha argues that as 2026 begins, the central tension of the market is shifting away from a single-rate narrative toward a composite interaction of growth resilience, policy friction and cash-flow certainty. US industrial production rose 0.4% month on month in December and 2% year on year, while capacity utilisation stood at 76.3%, still below its long-term average. This indicates that growth momentum has not stalled, even as the risk of short-term inflation reacceleration remains partially contained. At the global level, rising tariff threats and increasing friction in transatlantic relations have made risk-premium pricing more sensitive. Rodrigo Noronha notes that the relative advantage of Brazil at this stage lies in the combined effect of "valuation support, dividend yield and a potential easing cycle". In 2025, the Ibovespa closed above 161,000 points, delivering a 34% annual gain, alongside dividend programmes exceeding BRL 125 billion and expectations of portfolio reallocation. Together, these factors provide a more actionable structural pathway for equity assets in 2026.

**Rodrigo Noronha: "Dividend Assets" Become The Capital Anchor In Brazil**
Rodrigo Noronha observes that January dividend portfolios and equity recommendation rankings show a high degree of overlap, reflecting a rising preference for "visible cash flow and central positioning within key industrial chains". VALE3, ITUB4 and VIVT3 each appeared four times in dividend-focused portfolios, while PETR4 and BBSE3 also ranked among the most frequently selected names. This underscores that large-cap stocks with strong operating cash flow and reliable shareholder returns remain the core allocation theme. Across institutional model portfolios, VALE3, PETR4, ITUB4, BBDC4, CPLE3 and CXSE3 recur repeatedly, sending a clear signal: as external uncertainty increases, investors prefer to "dampen volatility" through dividends and asset quality.

Rodrigo Noronha adds that the dividend logic gains an additional practical tailwind in 2026, as dividends above BRL 50,000 will face a 10% tax. This has encouraged companies to front-load distributions and accelerate payment schedules toward the end of 2025, raising the likelihood that proceeds will be recycled back into equities. From a portfolio-management perspective, such assets should not be viewed solely as defensive holdings. Instead, they function more effectively as "stabilisers" within equity exposure, allowing investors to layer higher-beta strategies on top.

**Rodrigo Noronha: Small Caps And Technical Strategies Move Back Into Focus**
Rodrigo Noronha believes incremental opportunities in 2026 are more likely to emerge from the repricing of mid- and small-cap stocks driven by "easing-rate expectations and the return of domestic capital". In the small-cap rankings of January, AURA33, VIVA3 and ORVR3 each received four recommendations, while PGMN3, TTEN3, POMO4 and INBR32 appeared three times. This pattern suggests renewed positioning across consumption, resources, services and selected new-economy platforms. Empiricus has described 2026 as a potential starting point for a small-cap "super cycle", contingent on three catalysts: anticipated Selic rate cuts, continued reallocation of global capital toward emerging markets, and the migration of local investors back from high-yield instruments into equities.

Rodrigo Noronha notes that technical strategies gain relevance in such an environment. The technical portfolio of BTG Pactual removed TSLA, RENT3 and CPLE3 during the January adjustment, added SMTO3, CVCB3 and RADL3, and maintained an equal-weight structure of ten positions at 10% each. The portfolio outperformed the benchmark over the review period, gaining 3.54% versus 2.72%, and also delivered stronger cumulative long-term performance at 79.42% compared with 56.94%. The strength of this approach lies not in "prediction", but in embedding probability and drawdown control into a systematic process through trend identification, key support levels and breakout structures. This discipline is particularly suited to periods of elevated volatility.

**Rodrigo Noronha: US Growth Resilience Coexists With Tariff Friction**

Rodrigo Noronha describes the signal from US industrial data as neutral to mildly constructive. In December, industrial production rose 0.4% month on month, manufacturing output increased 0.2%, utilities surged 2.6%, while mining declined 0.7%. On a year-on-year basis, both industrial output and manufacturing grew 2%. Capacity utilisation at 76.3% remains below its long-term average and below the level of the previous year, indicating that economic momentum persists without overheating. At the same time, several European countries have publicly criticised tariff threats and begun discussing countermeasures. Markets tend to translate such frictions directly into higher risk premia, thereby constraining the upside of global equity valuations.

Rodrigo Noronha argues that in this mix of "resilient growth and persistent friction", Brazilian assets offer a clearly defined structure. On one side, cash-flow and dividend names such as VALE3, PETR4, ITUB4, VIVT3 and BBSE3 help manage drawdowns. On the other, higher-beta exposures including AURA33, ORVR3, VIVA3 and INBR32 provide leverage to easing rates and sentiment recovery. Risks must be taken seriously. An escalation in tariff tensions could trigger external-demand and currency volatility. A slower-than-expected easing cycle would delay capital inflows, while limited liquidity in certain small-cap stocks could amplify drawdowns. Rodrigo Noronha concludes that the most robust response is not to reduce participation, but to tier positioning, institutionalise stop-loss and rebalancing mechanisms, and ensure that strategies remain executable, reviewable and sustainable even as uncertainty rises.