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# System prepended metadata

title: Model Conceptualisation & Framework

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# Model Conceptualisation & Framework

The Dyme CHH framework currently consists of the following steps:

1. Activity sampler 
2. Estimation of temperature in microenvironments
3. Estimation of individual temperature exposure (ie ~personal exposure estimate)
4. Estimation of individual temperature risk
5. Estimation of area-level risk 

## 1. Activity Sampler

Vector of microenvironments an individual travels through on a specific time frame 
#### 1A. Microenvironments to define:
1. Indoor (Home & no/limited cooling)
1. Indoor (Work/Shop & mostly with cooling) 
1. Transport (Mostly with cooling) 
1. Outdoor (Shaded) 
1. Outdoor (Non-shaded) 

**To consider** - the time of day modifies the temperature (eg bedroom nighttime) - GS suggests doing a review of the evidence for this

All are modified by wider geographic location (Urban/Rural/Suburban)
#### 1B. Define time frame 
A day (24hr) in Summer at 1hour intervals
    

1C. Map to activity (Activity data within SPC already)

## 2. Estimation of temperature in microenvironments

Before applying to microenvironments, first heat hazard map to be created:
* UKCP RCP8.5 2.2km incorporates a ‘convection-permitting model’ 
    * In future this may include:
        * Incorporation of projected land use changes
        * EURO-CORDEX multi-model regional climate model simulations – can be used to model wider range of potential futures [Future work]

Parameters to adjust Temperature of microenvironments defined using literature need to be defined 

* Eg Indoor (Home & limited cooling) – First define as the average of all different building ranges then differentially model for types of building 
* <span style="color:green">**TO DO** </span> : review literature of difference at night vs day
* Shaded vs non-shaded - Start off by included a probability term and then an change it to see what would happen under x scenario (eg if 90% of the outdoor area is shaded)


#### <span style="color:green"> **Still to clarify** </span>
- What spatial scale does heat vary at to an extent that it might make a difference in terms of resolution of data - eg activity based and other

**Probabilstic running** - ideally would be run probabalistically so this should be built in now but maybe turned off later to allow computational to begin with 

**Day to estimate temperature for in Summer**
Summer average and summer max
Start off fixed but can then add in uncertainty 

## 3. Estimation of individual heat exposure 

Heat related mortality
Heat related hospitalisation
Residential discomfort – thresholds for comfort in day and night 

Heat stress (Heat related epigenetic risk)

## 4. Estimation of individual risk

Model vulnerability as a modifer of the hazard as in https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953621007930 

## 5. Estimation of area-level risk 

Key output of the work - relative (to other local areas) risk to individuals within that area 
