# Model Conceptualisation & Framework The Dyme CHH framework currently consists of the following steps: 1. Activity sampler 2. Estimation of temperature in microenvironments 3. Estimation of individual temperature exposure (ie ~personal exposure estimate) 4. Estimation of individual temperature risk 5. Estimation of area-level risk ## 1. Activity Sampler Vector of microenvironments an individual travels through on a specific time frame #### 1A. Microenvironments to define: 1. Indoor (Home & no/limited cooling) 1. Indoor (Work/Shop & mostly with cooling) 1. Transport (Mostly with cooling) 1. Outdoor (Shaded) 1. Outdoor (Non-shaded) **To consider** - the time of day modifies the temperature (eg bedroom nighttime) - GS suggests doing a review of the evidence for this All are modified by wider geographic location (Urban/Rural/Suburban) #### 1B. Define time frame A day (24hr) in Summer at 1hour intervals 1C. Map to activity (Activity data within SPC already) ## 2. Estimation of temperature in microenvironments Before applying to microenvironments, first heat hazard map to be created: * UKCP RCP8.5 2.2km incorporates a ‘convection-permitting model’ * In future this may include: * Incorporation of projected land use changes * EURO-CORDEX multi-model regional climate model simulations – can be used to model wider range of potential futures [Future work] Parameters to adjust Temperature of microenvironments defined using literature need to be defined * Eg Indoor (Home & limited cooling) – First define as the average of all different building ranges then differentially model for types of building * <span style="color:green">**TO DO** </span> : review literature of difference at night vs day * Shaded vs non-shaded - Start off by included a probability term and then an change it to see what would happen under x scenario (eg if 90% of the outdoor area is shaded) #### <span style="color:green"> **Still to clarify** </span> - What spatial scale does heat vary at to an extent that it might make a difference in terms of resolution of data - eg activity based and other **Probabilstic running** - ideally would be run probabalistically so this should be built in now but maybe turned off later to allow computational to begin with **Day to estimate temperature for in Summer** Summer average and summer max Start off fixed but can then add in uncertainty ## 3. Estimation of individual heat exposure Heat related mortality Heat related hospitalisation Residential discomfort – thresholds for comfort in day and night Heat stress (Heat related epigenetic risk) ## 4. Estimation of individual risk Model vulnerability as a modifer of the hazard as in https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953621007930 ## 5. Estimation of area-level risk Key output of the work - relative (to other local areas) risk to individuals within that area