# 資料預測

## USE_DAY（單位：度）
### regression

### lstm 

### arima

### sarima

|Model |MSE |R^2 |MAPE |
|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------|------------------|
|Decision Tree |5.542048279676421e+16 |-0.07206503486027405|7.553979334936653 |
|Gradient Boosting|5.600341389612658e+16 |-0.08334137201617375|7.6048142181936536|
|Random Forest |6.908583959551004e+16 |-0.3364104622819366 |8.628191805591257 |
|Polynomial4 |1.0153484222501845e+17|-0.9641105359668984 |9.374861308537826 |
|Elastic Net |1.563847538135811e+17 |-2.0251383259072027 |12.802492521179648|
|Ridge |1.5640725672396022e+17|-2.02557362675957 |12.80361701721216 |
|Lasso |1.5641440160951187e+17|-2.025711838871617 |12.803974030828172|
|Linear |1.5641440161551437e+17|-2.02571183898773 |12.803974031128096|
|lstm|3.493220695688893|2.97|0.8362520084559243|
|arima|40.92445183458492|-0.9106744405018519|10.796797508882182|
|sarima|48.930308435379146|-1.2844506279823533|11.749989154920724|

---
# USE_M（單位：萬瓦）
### regression

### lstm 

### arima

### sarima

|Model |MSE |R^2 |MAPE |
|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------|------------------|
|Decision Tree |5.542048279676421e+16 |-0.07206503486027405|7.553979334936653 |
|Gradient Boosting|5.600341389612658e+16 |-0.08334137201617375|7.6048142181936536|
|Random Forest |8.401015979697717e+16 |-0.6251095325467291 |9.475482843979261 |
|Polynomial |1.0153484222501845e+17|-0.9641105359668984 |9.374861308537826 |
|Elastic Net |1.563847538135811e+17 |-2.0251383259072027 |12.802492521179648|
|Ridge |1.5640725672396022e+17|-2.02557362675957 |12.80361701721216 |
|Lasso |1.5641440160951187e+17|-2.025711838871617 |12.803974030828172|
|Linear |1.5641440161551437e+17|-2.02571183898773 |12.803974031128096|

---
# station_d 臺中港
### regression

### lstm

### arima

### sarima

|Model |MSE |R^2 |MAPE |
|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------|------------------|
|Polynomial4 |1121104.169729199 |-0.008431459087214321|inf |
|Elastic Net |1658779.7095642688 |-0.4920697719144289 |inf |
|Lasso |1658781.002016436 |-0.49207093447314554|inf |
|Ridge |1658783.9982357258 |-0.49207362956774214|inf |
|Linear |1658784.1643422826 |-0.4920737789803318 |inf |
|Random Forest |1883868.3459553078 |-0.6945366506832367 |inf |
|Gradient Boosting|2007791.499994983 |-0.8060053352329561 |inf |
|Decision Tree |2241252.509310345 |-1.0160031504410934 |inf |

---
# station_d 彰工
### regression

### lstm

### arima

### sarima

|Model |MSE |R^2 |MAPE |
|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------|------------------|
|Random Forest |8568681.622246092 |-0.28130115946817913|inf |
|Polynomial4 |9087055.800634433 |-0.35881523515550096|inf |
|Gradient Boosting|10315799.367729874 |-0.5425530173040412 |inf |
|Elastic Net |10702463.017058626 |-0.6003720149107303 |inf |
|Lasso |10702485.573565967 |-0.6003753878542337 |inf |
|Ridge |10702492.687473118 |-0.6003764516185188 |inf |
|Linear |10702494.241858026 |-0.6003766840504463 |inf |
|Decision Tree |11294068.437126435 |-0.6888365820516722 |inf |

---
# station_d 王功
### regression

### lstm

### arima

### sarima

|Model |MSE |R^2 |MAPE |
|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------|------------------|
|Polynomial4 |858361.8342751195 |0.08144895985771305 |inf |
|Random Forest |1493434.1454453238 |-0.5981552684495595 |inf |
|Elastic Net |1577583.7550650437 |-0.688205534383199 |inf |
|Lasso |1577587.5690889447 |-0.6882096158503397 |inf |
|Ridge |1577590.720530795 |-0.6882129882745014 |inf |
|Linear |1577591.0413520858 |-0.6882133315921077 |inf |
|Gradient Boosting|1767109.4871841974 |-0.8910210038277298 |inf |
|Decision Tree |1970633.9395402297 |-1.1088167980266865 |inf |

---
# station_d 鹿港彰濱
### regression
### lstm
### arima
### sarima

|Model |MSE |R^2 |MAPE |
|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------|------------------|
|Gradient Boosting|3309838.621715163 |-0.09916435925144707|inf |
|Random Forest |3335601.5300609567 |-0.10771996388382155|inf |
|Decision Tree |3441564.7381609194 |-0.14290928730620278|inf |
|Elastic Net |5785719.250394208 |-0.9213795956531665 |inf |
|Lasso |5785740.081974038 |-0.9213865136128352 |inf |
|Ridge |5785745.908716672 |-0.9213884486158872 |inf |
|Linear |5785747.32211852 |-0.9213889179925285 |inf |
|Polynomial4 |5921555.679903753 |-0.9664895176370645 |inf |

---
# station_m 臺中港
### regression

### lstm

### arima

### sarima

|Model |MSE |R^2 |MAPE |
|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------|------------------|
|Linear |370610560.17256176 |0.0012115626457530615|319.3712331948039 |
|Lasso |370610579.35036945 |0.0012115109619247333|319.3713755588028 |
|Ridge |370610662.0118186 |0.0012112881908856732|319.3719891585686 |
|Elastic Net |370610875.2729639 |0.001210713456139878|319.3735720042169 |
|Random Forest |767317252.9666951 |-1.0679054576553817 |555.8389300433148 |
|Gradient Boosting|1324237157.742523 |-2.5687940485350618 |703.3865285595257 |
|Decision Tree |1409283466.5273333 |-2.7979922392568173 |721.9993683519194 |
|Polynomial4 |3771733858.0099883 |-9.16475128070785 |943.8274394081127 |

---
# station_m 彰工
### regression

### lstm

### arima

### sarima

|Model |MSE |R^2 |MAPE |
|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------|------------------|
|Elastic Net |3018371156.266925 |-0.42538228561948466|230.67102660800884|
|Ridge |3018412250.826946 |-0.42540169193330635|230.67292038675987|
|Lasso |3018431829.0121083 |-0.42541093744913927|230.67382260259328|
|Linear |3018432607.2934093 |-0.4254113049812691 |230.67385846771398|
|Random Forest |10923714448.73159 |-4.158566744205486 |417.57019340029575|
|Gradient Boosting|16127585427.526655 |-6.616019829265334 |493.9624197748349 |
|Decision Tree |17049227945.736002 |-7.051252228170872 |505.8973223823184 |
|Polynomial4 |68757121066.7141 |-31.469559674662356 |979.8185243810277 |

---
# station_m 王功
### regression

### lstm

### arima

### sarima

|Model |MSE |R^2 |MAPE |
|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------|------------------|
|Elastic Net |388701143.7154249 |-0.03154829096328626|208.427775004599 |
|Ridge |388702848.8176736 |-0.03155281602151927|208.42939895850333|
|Lasso |388703583.4647616 |-0.031554765652901384|208.4300986123436 |
|Linear |388703677.9326316 |-0.031555016354941845|208.43018857912674|
|Random Forest |1243864676.1803586 |-2.301010304829038 |413.9201704519211 |
|Gradient Boosting|2562322123.73387 |-5.79997743863135 |563.4297581312449 |
|Decision Tree |2695837420.25 |-6.154304865152902 |575.7189978253714 |
|Polynomial4 |5374724845.111221 |-13.263627257118303 |837.9658976232618 |

---
# station_m 鹿港彰濱
### regression

### lstm

### arima

### sarima

|Model |MSE |R^2 |MAPE |
|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------|------------------|
|Elastic Net |1367770132.7385068 |-0.14123357949238757|254.91845534667448|
|Ridge |1367783663.3395524 |-0.1412448690913446 |254.92087801790885|
|Lasso |1367789987.9239414 |-0.1412501461681781 |254.92201041425915|
|Linear |1367790341.5382996 |-0.1412504412152551 |254.922073727229 |
|Random Forest |6669549532.204245 |-4.564907219460696 |573.0357767924767 |
|Gradient Boosting|11724234660.46349 |-8.782411509147568 |730.02114877608 |
|Decision Tree |12266449022.791338 |-9.234821766368688 |744.3294501283883 |
|Polynomial4 |46007272159.739845 |-37.387330321664805 |1479.4138821295994|

---

lstm 可以一次預測多天只是說月的資料本來就只有104筆已經不多了

| 名稱 | 資料量 | 資料起始時間 |資料結束時間|單位 |
| -------- | -------- | -------- |-------- |--------|
|用電月 |104 |2016_01 |2024_08 |Wh |
|用電日 |592 |20230102 |20240815 |MD |
|風力發電日 |2232 |2018-01-01 |2024-03-27|MW |
|風力發電日 |76 |2018-01 |2024-03 |MW |

每月要往後預測12個月
每日往後預測1天

# 資料分布
中威

王功
台中
台中港
安威
鹿威彰濱
彰工

維修前資料
維修後資料