# COVID-19 Portugal
Using official COVID-19 data compiled by DSSG: https://github.com/dssg-pt/covid19pt-data
Using 2020-10-26 forecast from the Imperial College London: https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/

## 2020-10-26
Summary:
* **forecasts predict ICU demand might exceed capacity before the end of the year if *status quo* is maintained!** :warning:
* Test-and-trace system is overloaded, possibly leading to uncontrolled spread :warning:
* data and modelling suggest there have never been as many people infected as right now, including in Lisbon Metropolitan Area (AML) as well as Lisbon proper

### The Test-and-trace system is overloaded
The higher the percentage of tests that are positive the more cases go undiagnosed.

We have crossed the limit above which efficient contact tracing is feasible. Once contact tracing stops working effectively, infections grows faster and uncontrolled!

The number of new cases is growing much faster than the number of quarantined contacts.
... as can be seen in this log plot: steeper slope = faster exponential growth. New cases are growing exponentially but the number of quarantined contacts is not matching that growth.

### Hospital resource demand is forecast to get close to or above limit capacity
There are three levels of contingency plans for beds reserved for COVID patients. At level I other clinical activities go relatively undisturbed. Above that level other surgeries and clinical activity starts being canceled as needed to accommodate demand.

We just crossed the first level both in the general wards
...and in the ICUs.
**ICU demand is forecasted to go above all available ICU beds, let alone those reserved for COVID patients if we maintain this trajectory!**

While there are more ventilators than ICU beds that could be used for COVID patients, many of these are needed for surgery rooms and for ICU patients with other pathologies. Also, an ICU bed is more than a bed with a ventilator and requires teams of highly specialized doctors and nurses. These teams should ideally treat either only COVID patients or patients without COVID to avoid possible contamination. Bottomline: human resources are a limiting factor for ICU care and we can't count on using all the resources only for COVID patients given other emergencies that will also require critical care.

While the model doesn't track the ICU demand perfectly, as this is calculated based on predicted infections, the actual ICU demand has consistently been at least close if not above the lower confidence interval.

### There have never been as many people infected at the same time
The estimated number of infections includes reported but also unreported cases.

Estimates indicate up to 1% of the population is infected right now!

### More than 90% of the population is estimated to be susceptible!
The prediction of the model for infection incidence matches with what was estimated by the serological survey conducted nationwide this Summer.