# Product Analysis on the VM0015 Methodology

###### tags: `Analysis`

This document is an product-oriented analysis for the VM0015 metholodogy[^VM0015] with the stated goals of:

- Describing the certification workflow in terms of processes and bottlenecks
- Identifying automation & simplification opportunities

## Why the interest on VM0015?

1. As per the analysis on the VCUs on Brazil [^VCUS], an super-majority of the projects (~58%) uses that methodology, therefore making it an natural anchor point for newcomer competiting products.
2. It is an comparatively simple method as it is self-contained in terms of modules, specifically when taking VM007 (the second more widely adopted method, with an ~28% share of projects) as the reference point.
3. VM0015 is focused mainly on conservation efforts that deals with unplanned deforestation along with industrial agriculture being potentially included on the historical baselines. This makes it uniquely suitable for conservation efforts on the Amazon frontiers. [^DevHandbook]
- Specifically, VM0007 does not includes industrial farming on the baselines, and VM0009 does not handle unplanned deforestations.

## What it takes to an project to become VM0015 certified?

In order to an project to become VM0015, it must demonstrate its capacity to net-reduce GHG emissions due to deforestation drivers inside its reference area. Doing so requires going through an series of steps which are sequentially encapsulated as:

1. Definitions & Historical Data Collection
1. Define Boundaries
- Define Reference Area
- Check for existing reference areas
- Check for existing future baselines
- Define Project Area
- Check Area of scope applicabiliy
- Compute Leakage Boundary
- Determine method of computation: Opportunity Cost Analysis vs Mobility Analysis
- If OCA: perform an econometric estimation for the migration of the economic actors (p. 22)
- If MA: perform individual study to determine that (p. 23)
2. Describe Historical LU/LC inside the Boundaries
- Collect historical LU classes (minimum: Forest & Non-Forest) (p. 31)
- Compute project & leakage belt LC matrix and associated carbon stock trends (p. 32-35)
- Estimation of map accuracy assessment (p. 36-37)
3. Describe Deforestation Agents & Drivers inside the Boundaries
- Describe agents in terms of its driving economics (prices, costs, slope, etc) (p. 38-40)
2. Estimate Baseline Future
1. Estimate Baseline Future Deforestation inside the Boundaries
- Select forecast method: historical average vs time function vs modelling (p. 42)
- Compute quantitave projections (p. 43-49)
- Compute deforestation risk maps (p. 50-54)
2. Estimate Baseline Future LU/LC inside the Boundaries
3. Estimate Baseline Future Carbon Stocks & non-CO2 emissions inside the Boundaries
3. Estimate Project Effects on the Projected Future
1. Estimate Future Carbon Stocks & non-CO2 emissions inside the Project Area
2. Estimate Future Carbon Stocks & non-CO2 emissions inside the Leakage Area
3. Compute net GHG emissions due to the Project Intervention

Each step requires providing detailed numbers that have varying measurability & variability. Generally speaking, the methodology calls for conservative estimates whatever there is severe uncertainty, and the usage of the literature reviews & field studies for providing inputs when there's no direct data available. Estimates are usually generated through simple econometric approaches.

In that sense, VM0015 is more of an general guideline rather than an fixed methodology, on which going over each step requires extensive review & feedback loops.

## Modelling VM0015 as a software service: what it would take?

https://kumu.io/danlessa/vm0015


## How can we streamline the certification process?

As of now, the VM0015 certification process takes about two years while embedding high costs in order to happen, as going over each part is highly individualized in terms of reference & project areas. This generates an high demand for expert labour, which is short on supply therefore adding to costs and delays.

**The main complexity on the certification process is to determine the future baseline scenario for a given reference area**. Once this is done, the same baseline can be recycled for multiple projects on that same area. Therefore, having automated means to do so represents the highest leverage point.

Other leverage points include:
- Automatic calculation of an leakage belt on an given reference area and project area
- Automated future Carbon Stocks & non-CO2 emissions given an future baseline scenario, project area and leakage area.
- Automated scope requirement checker for an project area
- Leakage belt calculator for an given reference & project area

## References

[^VM0015]: https://verra.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/VM0015-Methodology-for-Avoided-Unplanned-Deforestation-v1.1.pdf
[^VCUS]: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XWf71Ovhdy4ROMPFep4WWyY13TMQkzAfI-qfRjzITlQ/edit#gid=1933345021
[^DevHandbook]: https://www.conservation.org/docs/default-source/publication-pdfs/ci_redd-developers-guidebook.pdf
*[LU/LC]: Land Use & Land Cover