---
# System prepended metadata

title: Simulation Results

---

# Simulation Results

[ToC]

## Configuration

| Population           |      $\approx 2.3 \times 10^7$ (Population of Taiwan)      |
| -------------------- |:----------------------------------------------------------:|
| Vaccine Rollout rate |                    100000 doses per day                    |
| Pre-vaccination                     |      14 Days                                                      |
| Runs                 |                    10 runs per scenario                    |
| States               | [全都有(看這篇)](https://hackmd.io/2yiZ1Mi_Q3WhFDZZixjzow) |

## Virus

1. COVID-19 原始病毒株
2. Omicron Variant

## Initial Infectors

1. 萬華事件

## Vaccination Strategies

1. Greedy
    1. infection probability
    2. Death probability
    3. YLL
2. Ordinary
    1. elder first (age $\ge 60$)
    2. teenager first (age $0 \sim 20$)
    3. Taipei first
    4. Kaohsiung first
    5. Random
    6. No Vaccine

## Results

### 原始病毒株

#### Infection

|           Strategy           | Average Infected Number | Reduced (Percentage) |
|:----------------------------:|:-----------------------:|:--------------------:|
|          No Vaccine          |4203120.6 |          x           |
|        age 0~20 first        |1079568.24|74.31507818|
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      |1190277.92|71.68109047|
|         Taipei first         |1153400.32|72.55847667|
|       Kaohsiung first        |1198693.4|71.48087067|
| greedy: Infected probability |1.6|99.99996193|
|  greedy: Death probability   |2.16|99.99994861|
|         greedy: YLL          |2.8|99.99993338|
|            Random            |1158956.4|72.42628727|


#### Death

|           Strategy           | Average Death Number | Reduced (Percentage) |
|:----------------------------:|:-----------------------:|:--------------------:|
|          No Vaccine          |879084.4|          x           |
|        age 0~20 first        |200497.8|77.19242885|
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      |215564.2|75.47855473|
|         Taipei first         |212302.8|75.84955438|
|       Kaohsiung first        |224585.2|74.4523734|
| greedy: Infected probability |4|99.99954498|
|  greedy: Death probability   |2.4|99.99972699|
|         greedy: YLL          |3.6|99.99959048|
|            Random            |215602.2|75.47423205|
#### Figures
|           Strategy           | Fig |
|:----------------------------:|:---:|
|          No Vaccine          |![](https://i.imgur.com/c4ynRGv.png)|
|        age 0~20 first        |![](https://i.imgur.com/Roz5STO.png)|
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      |![](https://i.imgur.com/qE9d2B9.png)|
|         Taipei first         |![](https://i.imgur.com/7iS39rf.png)|
|       Kaohsiung first        |![](https://i.imgur.com/UmZOsTU.png)|
| greedy: Infected probability |![](https://i.imgur.com/mE2VMi2.png)|
|  greedy: Death probability   |![](https://i.imgur.com/nwtP5c1.png)|
|         greedy: YLL          |![](https://i.imgur.com/bMO1Xwd.png) |
|            Random            |![](https://i.imgur.com/uFIC0Uo.png)|


### Omicron

#### Infection

|           Strategy           | Average Infected Number | Reduced (Percentage) |
|:----------------------------:|:-----------------------:|:--------------------:|
|          No Vaccine          |4709075.88|          x           |
|        age 0~20 first        |3563691.84|24.32290473|
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      |3646284.16|22.56900817|
|         Taipei first         |3609031.84|23.36008313|
|       Kaohsiung first        |3626103.56|22.9975551|
| greedy: Infected probability |13.4|99.99971544|
|  greedy: Death probability   |12.6|99.99973243|
|         greedy: YLL          |13.08|99.99972224|
|            Random            |3623691.16|23.04878383|


#### Death

|           Strategy           | Average Death Number | Reduced (Percentage) |
|:----------------------------:|:-----------------------:|:--------------------:|
|          No Vaccine          |501490|          x           |
|        age 0~20 first        |396907.4|20.85437397|
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      |323405.8|35.51101717|
|         Taipei first         |370428.4|26.13443937|
|       Kaohsiung first        |375220.8|25.17880715|
| greedy: Infected probability |2.8|99.99944166|
|  greedy: Death probability   |3.2|99.9993619|
|         greedy: YLL          |1.8|99.99964107|
|            Random            |375234.4|25.17609524|
#### Figures
|           Strategy           | Fig |
|:----------------------------:|:---:|
|          No Vaccine          |![](https://i.imgur.com/id9POY9.png)|
|        age 0~20 first        |![](https://i.imgur.com/k3SL183.png)|
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      |![](https://i.imgur.com/g42OQia.png)|
|         Taipei first         |![](https://i.imgur.com/YjYWIoL.png)|
|       Kaohsiung first        |![](https://i.imgur.com/9DXtIW3.png)|
| greedy: Infected probability |![](https://i.imgur.com/5Y5bicE.png)|
|  greedy: Death probability   |![](https://i.imgur.com/PRCKQPX.png)|
|         greedy: YLL          |![](https://i.imgur.com/nGj4v1y.png)|
|            Random            |![](https://i.imgur.com/oyJnNan.png)|
