---
# System prepended metadata

title: Meeting Note 5/18
tags: [meeting note]

---

# Meeting Note 5/18 
###### tags: `meeting note`

## Configuration

| Population           | $\approx 2.3 \times 10^5$ ($1 \over 100$ Population of Taiwan) |
| -------------------- |:--------------------------------------------------------------:|
| Virus                |                      Covid-19 原始病毒株                       |
| Vaccine Rollout rate |             1% of population per day (2300 doses)              |
| Runs                 |                     100 runs per strategy                      |
| States               |                             SVEIR                              |
| Vaccine Waning       |                               No                               |

## Infection

|           Strategy           | Average Infected Number | Reduced (Percentage) |
|:----------------------------:|:---------------------:|:--------------------:|
|          No Vaccine          |       230106.77       |          x           |
|        age 0~20 first        |       185863.96       |        19.22         |
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      |       189646.69       |        17.58         |
| greedy: Infected probability |        1854.26        |        99.19         |


|           Strategy           |                 Fig                  |
|:----------------------------:|:------------------------------------:|
|          No Vaccine          | ![](https://i.imgur.com/tFQ9fiZ.png) |
|        age 0~20 first        | ![](https://i.imgur.com/NZHfkB6.png) |
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      | ![](https://i.imgur.com/mm8Tu4D.png) |
| greedy: Infected probability | ![](https://i.imgur.com/lxbAytN.png) |

## Death

|           Strategy           | Total Infected Number | Reduced (Percentage) |
|:----------------------------:|:---------------------:|:--------------------:|
|          No Vaccine          |        9622.87      |          x           |
|        age 0~20 first        |       8235.77       |        14.41         |
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      |       5459.73       |        43.26         |
| greedy: Infected probability |        65.79        |        99.31         |

|           Strategy           |                 Fig                  |
|:----------------------------:|:------------------------------------:|
|          No Vaccine          | ![](https://i.imgur.com/BVm5K9X.png) |
|        age 0~20 first        | ![](https://i.imgur.com/yolhU3P.png) |
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      | ![](https://i.imgur.com/ujxm24P.png) |
| greedy: Infected probability | ![](https://i.imgur.com/qOhp9mS.png) |

## Discussion

- 平行化怎麼做
- infect prob 的延伸
    - 加noise
        - $E(X)=E(f_\sigma(X))$
    - 使用數天前的order
- 動機: 原本的vaccine strategy miss掉了甚麼

## TODO in two weeks
- vacc strat
    - City first (e.g. Taipei first, Kaohsiung first)
    - Random
    - other age group
    - other Greedy
        - High Death probability first
        - High YLL first
            - [data](https://ws.moi.gov.tw/Download.ashx?u=LzAwMS9VcGxvYWQvNDAwL3JlbGZpbGUvMC8xNDY2OC9jZGE0MTNiNS1lZDc2LTRjODgtOWZhNy03YjIwNWIyMDFiZjUucGRm&n=MTA55bm06Ie654Gj5Zyw5Y2Ad2ViLnBkZg%3D%3D&icon=..pdf)
            - 76.65 66.72 56.97 47.27 37.87 29.03 20.73 13.28 7.26 7.26
- infection starting date


