---
# System prepended metadata

title: Simulation Results (230k rollout)
tags: [simulation result]

---

# Simulation Results (230k rollout)
###### tags: `simulation result`

[ToC]

## Configuration

| Population           |      $\approx 2.3 \times 10^7$ (Population of Taiwan)      |
| -------------------- |:----------------------------------------------------------:|
| Vaccine Rollout rate |                    230000 doses per day                    |
| Pre-vaccination                     |      14 Days                                                      |
| Runs                 |                    100 runs per scenario                    |
| States               | [全都有(看這篇)](https://hackmd.io/2yiZ1Mi_Q3WhFDZZixjzow) |

## Virus

1. COVID-19 原始病毒株
2. Omicron Variant

## Initial Infectors

1. 萬華事件

## Vaccination Strategies

1. Greedy
    1. infection probability
    2. Death probability
    3. YLL
2. Ordinary
    1. elder first (age $\ge 60$)
    2. teenager first (age $0 \sim 20$)
    3. Taipei first
    4. Kaohsiung first
    5. Random
    6. No Vaccine

## Results

### 原始病毒株

#### Infection

|           Strategy           | Average Infected Number | Reduced (Percentage) |
|:----------------------------:|:-----------------------:|:--------------------:|
| No Vaccine | 21015941.76 | x |
| age 0~20 first | 4832252.6899999995 | 77.0067278203192 |
| age $\geq$ 60 first | 4749780.029999999 | 77.39915686747698 |
| Taipei first | 4679641.61 | 77.73289599180923 |
| Kaohsiung first | 4734427.51 | 77.47220864966845 |
| greedy: Infected probability | 10.459999999999999 | 99.99995022825948 |
| greedy: Infected probability(bias=10) | 76.79 | 99.99963461071182 |
| greedy: Infected probability(bias=100) | 76.79 | 99.99963461071182 |
| greedy: Infected probability(bias=1000) | 76.79 | 99.99963461071182 |
| greedy: Death probability | 10.23 | 99.99995132266677 |
| greedy: YLL | 10.7 | 99.99994908626927 |
| Random | 4707068.43 | 77.60239115736873 |



#### Death

|           Strategy           | Average Death Number | Reduced (Percentage) |
|:----------------------------:|:-----------------------:|:--------------------:|
| No Vaccine | 878641.53 | x |
| age 0~20 first | 171633.08 | 80.46608609542962 |
| age $\geq$ 60 first | 167932.8 | 80.88722257414807 |
| Taipei first | 164647.43 | 81.26113729224706 |
| Kaohsiung first | 167006.46 | 80.99265123514023 |
| greedy: Infected probability | 3.34 | 99.99961986772922 |
| greedy: Infected probability(bias=10) | 6.06 | 99.99931029893385 |
| greedy: Infected probability(bias=100) | 6.06 | 99.99931029893385 |
| greedy: Infected probability(bias=1000) | 6.06 | 99.99931029893385 |
| greedy: Death probability | 2.8 | 99.99968132624007 |
| greedy: YLL | 3.27 | 99.99962783457322 |
| Random | 165857.5 | 81.12341673628835 |

#### Figures
|           Strategy           | Fig |
|:----------------------------:|:---:|
|          No Vaccine          |![](https://i.imgur.com/fPZAEq1.png)|
|        age 0~20 first        |![](https://i.imgur.com/VCWIqMf.png)|
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      |![](https://i.imgur.com/rlG2Md9.png)|
|         Taipei first         |![](https://i.imgur.com/1fsz5Qv.png)|
|       Kaohsiung first        |![](https://i.imgur.com/KA2FJej.png)|
| greedy: Infected probability |![](https://i.imgur.com/gkTN6vH.png)|
|  greedy: Death probability   |![](https://i.imgur.com/kyOKb3r.png)|
|         greedy: YLL          |![](https://i.imgur.com/fV2WEBt.png)|
|            Random            |![](https://i.imgur.com/ntOhvp3.png)|


### Omicron

#### Infection

|           Strategy           | Average Infected Number | Reduced (Percentage) |
|:----------------------------:|:-----------------------:|:--------------------:|
| No Vaccine | 23545386.02 | x |
| age 0~20 first | 14515923.01 | 38.349182308288185 |
| age $\geq$ 60 first | 14449158.120000001 | 38.632740581417735 |
| Taipei first | 14448306.81 | 38.63635619425703 |
| Kaohsiung first | 14448706.2 | 38.63465993835509 |
| greedy: Infected probability | 55.22 | 99.99976547422092 |
| greedy: Death probability | 55.980000000000004 | 99.9997622464123 |
| greedy: YLL | 58.74 | 99.99975052437047 |
| Random | 14448694.54 | 38.63470945973474 |



#### Death

|           Strategy           | Average Death Number | Reduced (Percentage) |
|:----------------------------:|:-----------------------:|:--------------------:|
| No Vaccine | 501564.92 | x |
| age 0~20 first | 303071.01 | 39.574918836030236 |
| age $\geq$ 60 first | 301552.76 | 39.87762142535805 |
| Taipei first | 301559.48 | 39.87628161873841 |
| Kaohsiung first | 301466.34 | 39.89485149798753 |
| greedy: Infected probability | 2.44 | 99.99951352259644 |
| greedy: Death probability | 2.66 | 99.99946965987972 |
| greedy: YLL | 2.64 | 99.99947364739941 |
| Random | 301554.62 | 39.87725058602583 |

#### Figures
|           Strategy           | Fig |
|:----------------------------:|:---:|
|          No Vaccine          |![](https://i.imgur.com/8DtnOnY.png)|
|        age 0~20 first        |![](https://i.imgur.com/czjg20Q.png)|
|     age $\geq$ 60 first      |![](https://i.imgur.com/DvzXwhb.png)|
|         Taipei first         |![](https://i.imgur.com/evBxXc1.png)|
|       Kaohsiung first        |![](https://i.imgur.com/gXuVlTw.png)|
| greedy: Infected probability |![](https://i.imgur.com/tROI9AH.png)|
|  greedy: Death probability   |![](https://i.imgur.com/UHLcKbG.png)|
|         greedy: YLL          |![](https://i.imgur.com/cDzf4Wa.png)|
|            Random            |![](https://i.imgur.com/EmI33HL.png)|
