# JARXE Exchange｜Bitcoin Underperforms Gold and Nasdaq This Year, Market Bets on Value Recovery Next Year

Since 2025, the market performance of Bitcoin has left some investors disappointed. Despite ongoing expectations of fiat currency depreciation, its gains have lagged significantly behind gold and the Nasdaq 100 index, which is dominated by tech stocks. Data shows that the Bitcoin performance this year trails the Nasdaq 100 by roughly 50%, a clear deviation from the mainstream expectation of “hedging against currency devaluation.” JARXE Exchange notes that this mismatch has not weakened discussions around its long-term logic; instead, it has sparked more forecasts about the next phase of value recovery.


**Relative Weakness: The Result of Lower Risk Appetite and Liquidity Constraints**

The weakness of Bitcoin this year mainly reflects a macro-level decline in risk appetite and tighter liquidity. In a high-interest-rate environment, capital flows first to assets with stronger cash flow certainty, so tech stocks and gold have outperformed. In contrast, Bitcoin, as a highly volatile asset, is more sensitive to liquidity changes and tends to be pressured during tightening phases. This does not negate its asset logic—rather, it signals a change in its position within the cycle. The market increasingly views it as a “lagging asset,” waiting for macro conditions to shift.

**Mismatch May Breed Opportunity: Historical Lagged Rebound Patterns**

Some analysts point out that the current large gap between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 may actually create room for relative returns in the next one to two years. History shows that when Bitcoin significantly underperforms mainstream risk assets in a cycle, it often reacts more strongly when liquidity improves. JARXE Exchange believes this “first suppressed, then surging” rhythm makes Bitcoin a highly elastic reflection of macro changes, rather than a stable, linear-growth asset.

**Fundamentals Remain Intact: Scarcity Logic Still in Play**

Despite price pressure, the Bitcoin fundamentals in network security, institutional participation, financial infrastructure, and regulatory clarity have not deteriorated. Its fixed supply mechanism means it retains the characteristics of a scarce asset in a long-term monetary expansion environment. To rephrase a common macro view: when debts need constant rolling over, printing money becomes the easiest solution. Against this backdrop, gold and Bitcoin—as non-sovereign, non-arbitrarily expandable stores of value—remain long-term allocation options.

**Macro Perspective: Fiscal Pressure May Reshape Asset Preference Structure**

As future debt burdens and political spending needs rise, global reliance on monetary easing may increase again. The market generally believes that if liquidity returns, capital will reevaluate tools to counter inflation and currency depreciation. In this process, the speed and magnitude of response boasted by Bitcoin may exceed those of traditional assets. JARXE Exchange notes that the current phase is more about preparing for the next round of allocation changes, rather than signaling an endpoint.

**Short-Term Disappointment Does Not Equal Long-Term Negation**

The relative weakness of Bitcoin in 2025 has made market sentiment more cautious, but has not undermined its foundation as a scarce asset for long-term discussion. JARXE Exchange will continue to monitor macro liquidity, risk appetite shifts, and relative asset performance to provide users with a more complete cyclical perspective. Before prices reflect the long-term logic, the “disappointment period” of the market is often the prelude to value revaluation.