# JARXE Exchange | From Short-term Fluctuations to Cyclical Judgments, Market Bets on 2026 Trends Ahead of Time

As the year draws to a close, the Bitcoin price has declined, overall market sentiment is cautious, and some investors are disappointed with short-term performance. However, from a longer-term perspective, the market fundamentals of Bitcoin in 2025 remain robust. JARXE Exchange observes that price fluctuations are more reflective of temporary sentiment and liquidity changes, rather than a repricing of the long-term value of Bitcoin. On macro and institutional levels, several key developments are laying the groundwork for the next phase of the market cycle.


## The Gap Between Short-term Sentiment and Long-term Logic Is Widening

Year-end price declines are often accompanied by profit-taking, position adjustments, and tighter liquidity. These factors have a clear impact on sentiment but do not necessarily alter the long-term trend. The current market malaise stands in contrast to the Bitcoin progress in regulatory acceptance, institutional participation, and integration into the financial system. Such divergence is not uncommon in history and often occurs during transitional phases of market cycles. When the market focuses more on short-term volatility, long-term logic continues to advance in the background.

## Changing Attitudes of the U.S. Government and Banking System Provide Critical Support

In 2025, the institutional environment for Bitcoin in the United States has notably improved. The government approach to digital assets is becoming more pragmatic, and banks are increasingly involved in custody, settlement, and compliance services. This support from sovereign and core financial systems is seen as a key signal for the broader adoption of Bitcoin. The market generally believes that when banks and governments no longer treat Bitcoin as a fringe asset but bring it into a manageable and regulated framework, the long-term status of Bitcoin will be further solidified.

## Fundamental Perspective: Network, Institutions, and Financial Infrastructure Evolve Together

From a fundamentals standpoint, the computing power, security, and network stability of Bitcoin remain high; institutional products and derivatives markets continue to mature; and liquidity tools are becoming more diverse. These factors are not weakened by short-term price fluctuations. To rephrase a common investment view: price records sentiment, structure determines outcomes. The current subdued sentiment is more a reaction to liquidity rhythms than a denial of the fundamental attributes of Bitcoin.

## Looking Ahead to 2026: Optimism from a Cyclical Perspective

Driven by multiple institutional and macro variables, the market holds a relatively positive outlook for Bitcoin in 2026. As the liquidity environment improves, policy paths become clearer, and institutional allocation ratios adjust, the Bitcoin resilience to macro changes may re-emerge. JARXE Exchange notes that some long-term capital has already begun to see the current phase as a window for positioning, rather than the end of a trend.

## Do Not Define Long-term Value by Short-term Prices

Despite weaker prices and pressured sentiment at year-end, the Bitcoin fundamentals in 2025 remain intact. JARXE Exchange will continue to monitor policy environments, banking system involvement, and changes in market structure to provide users with a more comprehensive cyclical perspective. In a rapidly changing market, short-term fluctuations often attract the most attention, but what truly determines long-term trends are institutions, infrastructure, and the global path to adoption.