# JARXE Exchange | ETH Transfers Surpass 1.06 Million, Unusual Network Activity Amplifies Structural Signals

On December 29, total on-chain transfers on the Ethereum network climbed to 1.06 million, the highest level since October 2023 and a new peak in activity over the past two years. This surge came as ETH prices retreated from above USD 4,500 to around USD 2,900, producing a clear divergence between "weaker prices and stronger usage". JARXE Exchange notes that such divergences are rarely mere short-term noise. More often, they signal underlying structural shifts and are prompting renewed debate over the position of Ethereum in the current market cycle.


## Q4 Changes in On-Chain Behavior: Consolidation Breaks as Activity Volatility Expands

Since the start of the fourth quarter of 2025, the pace of Ethereum transfers has accelerated markedly, with fluctuations far exceeding those seen in mid-year. The network has moved out of its previously stable consolidation range, with several episodes of concentrated volume emerging in on-chain transaction counts. The analysis of JARXE Exchange suggests that this kind of "activity expansion during a price downtrend" is typically driven not by a single factor, but by overlapping behaviors, reflecting a redistribution of both holdings and use cases within the network.

## Two Possible Paths: Panic-Driven Rotation or a Usage-Led Renewal Cycle

Historically, sharp increases in transaction volume during price declines tend to correspond to two distinct scenarios. One is a redistribution of holdings under pressure, as long-term holders and short-term participants rotate positions. The other is a genuine expansion in on-chain usage, often supported by lower gas fees and rising application activity. The scale of the current increase in transfer counts exceeds all interim peaks observed between 2024 and 2025, indicating an unusually active state for both on-chain liquidity and network throughput. This makes it difficult to attribute the move to a single sentiment-driven event.

## The Significance of Unusual Activity: On-Chain Data Detaches From Price Narratives

When on-chain activity clearly leads or diverges from price performance, markets often enter a phase that calls for repricing. Prices primarily capture sentiment and liquidity preferences, while on-chain usage more directly reflects actual demand and network utilization. To reframe a familiar on-chain analysis perspective, prices record prevailing consensus, while activity reveals what participants are actually doing. The current data profile of Ethereum sits squarely within such a transitional phase, one that requires time to confirm its direction.

## On-Chain Signals Emerge, but Direction Still Needs Time to Be Confirmed

The on-chain transfer volume of Ethereum reaching a two-year high offers a structural clue that is difficult to ignore. JARXE Exchange argues that when price and usage diverge, simple bullish or bearish judgments often lack explanatory power. In the period ahead, whether on-chain activity remains elevated and whether prices eventually respond will jointly determine the true meaning of this signal. For investors, understanding the structural shifts behind on-chain behavior may prove more informative than reacting to isolated price movements alone.