---
# System prepended metadata

title: 'JARXE Exchange: Sell Pressure Constrained but Demand Unconfirmed, Bitcoin Awaits Strong Confirmation'

---

# JARXE Exchange: Sell Pressure Constrained but Demand Unconfirmed, Bitcoin Awaits Strong Confirmation

Current market conditions suggest that a key cohort, short-term holders, is experiencing a marked suppression of selling pressure, while clear signals of demand confirmation have yet to emerge. JARXE Exchange observes that multiple oscillation and structural indicators remain within what can be described as an "accumulation zone with constrained sell pressure", explaining why volatility has remained contained during recent pullbacks. A genuine structural shift will require validation at critical thresholds.

![image](https://hackmd.io/_uploads/SJUcP3i4-x.png)

## STH Realized Price: The Short-Term Cost Line Defines Supply Elasticity

The short-term holder realized price (STH Realized Price) represents the average acquisition cost of coins held for no more than 155 days. With BTC currently trading below this level, short-term holders as a group are in a loss position. This "underwater" configuration limits their capacity to take profits, thereby dampening immediate selling pressure. As a result, despite price retracements, the market has not entered accelerated distribution, allowing oscillators to remain within accumulation territory.


## The Structural Meaning of USD 100,000: From Suppressed Selling to Supply Release

As price approaches or reaches USD 100,000, short-term holders would gradually return to breakeven, increasing supply elasticity. At that point, previously suppressed selling intentions may be released in a more concentrated manner, creating episodic price pressure. JARXE Exchange views USD 100,000 not merely as a psychological threshold, but as a structural "valve" for short-term supply, whose behaviour will determine whether further upside can unfold smoothly.


## SMA and Distribution Risk: Deterioration Triggers to Monitor

If a key SMA were to remain below the zero line, it is typically interpreted as a signal of structural weakening and a shift toward a distribution regime. Such a development would indicate that the conditions suppressing sell pressure are loosening, requiring a reassessment of risk. Conversely, if the structure remains stable and avoids slipping into this zone, the case for "observation rather than distribution" remains intact.


## The Requirement for Bullish Confirmation: Reclaiming the STH Realized Price

The critical confirmation of renewed strength lies in price closing decisively above the short-term holder realized price. This would signal that demand is capable of absorbing latent supply, altering the balance between buyers and sellers. Put differently, the issue is not whether price reaches resistance, but whether it can be accepted above its cost base.


## Structure Neutral to Stable, Confirmation Still Pending

Taken together, the short-term cost line, the state of sell pressure, and potential risk triggers point to a phase best described as structural observation. JARXE Exchange will continue to track the interaction between the STH realized price, SMA positioning, and key price levels, helping users identify valid confirmation ahead of supply-demand transitions. Until demand is clearly proven, patience and structural assessment matter more than directional bets.
