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title: 'Marcelo Ricci Scopelli: Inflation Falls Back to Target Range, Risk Appetite Returns to Brazilian Equities'

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During the Christmas holiday period, trading activity tends to be subdued, but macro data and unexpected news can amplify emotional swings. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli notes that low volatility does not mean reduced risk; pricing is shifting from short-term disturbances to core variables such as inflation trends, the interest rate curve, earnings quality, and exchange rate fluctuations. Currently, Brazil and the US show diverging pricing anchors—Brazil is seeking upward momentum between falling inflation and adjusted rate expectations, while the US is recalibrating its pricing logic between growth resilience and high valuation constraints.

![Marcelo Ricci Scopelli](https://hackmd.io/_uploads/HJ6pKEMVbg.png)


**Marcelo Ricci Scopelli: Easing Inflation Pressure and a Declining Interest Rate Curve Drive Recovery in Brazilian Domestic Assets**

Brazilian equities have rebounded amid positive inflation data and rate expectations. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli highlights that market interpretation of the IPCA-15 is positive, with 12-month inflation falling to 4.41%, close to expectations and within the central bank tolerance range. This cooling of price pressures is causing the interest rate curve to converge and supporting the recovery of domestic asset valuations. During the low liquidity, banks, utilities, and consumer-related sectors of the holiday period are more likely to see concentrated allocations, with Banco do Brasil, Santander, and utilities like Sabesp leading the gains.

Marcelo Ricci Scopelli points out that policy and exchange rate factors are reshaping market structure. The government has confirmed a minimum wage increase to 1,621 BRL in 2026, a nominal gain of nearly 7%, which, despite fiscal constraints, marginally supports earnings expectations in retail, discretionary consumption, and some service sectors. On the FX side, the US dollar weakened about 10% against the BRL in 2025, and although there was a temporary rebound, the consensus remains for increased volatility. With a weaker external dollar and a domestic election cycle, sector allocation must pay greater attention to exchange rate sensitivity.

**Marcelo Ricci Scopelli: Growth Data Supports Risk Appetite; Rate Cut Expectations Drive New US Equity Highs**

US equities continued their strength in shortened holiday trading, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing at new highs. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli believes upward momentum is driven by the combination of growth resilience and rate cut expectations. Q3 GDP annualized growth reached 4.3%, beating forecasts, with private consumption remaining robust. Tariffs have raised costs but fears of a rapid inflation rebound have temporarily eased. On the employment front, both hiring and layoffs are low, with initial claims falling and continuing claims rising, keeping short-term economic slowdown risks in check. The rate market still prices in about 50 basis points of cuts next year; while a January cut is unlikely, the expectation of a looser path is supporting risk asset valuations.

The market focus is shifting from sentiment-driven narratives to valuation and cash flow quality, especially regarding the marginal returns of AI-related capital expenditure. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli notes sector divergence in tech stocks, with funds reallocating within the value chain—Intel was dragged down by rumors of advanced process test plan adjustments, while some semiconductor stocks strengthened, showing capital remains engaged. Strategically, more weight should be given to capital expenditure and depreciation paths, order and gross margin changes, and the verifiability of free cash flow inflection points to manage pullback risk in a high-valuation environment.

During the holiday, event-driven premiums are also prominent—Nike rallied on news of increased holdings, and healthcare stocks rose on major M&A activity. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli notes risk appetite persists, but reliance on catalysts is rising. With trading volumes below normal, price swings can be amplified, making position control and risk discipline even more crucial for portfolio management.

**Marcelo Ricci Scopelli: Rate Declines and Rising Volatility Coexist; Cross-Market Allocation Highlights Hedging and Cash Flow Quality**

Pricing for 2026 is becoming clearer. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli notes the Brazilian rate cut outlook is more definite, with the Focus survey median showing Selic could fall to 12.25% by year-end, implying about 2.75 percentage points of cuts for the year. The US also has rate cuts priced in, but at a more cautious pace. In this combination, lower rates favor the recovery of valuations for equities and rate-sensitive assets, but election cycles and policy uncertainty may increase FX volatility and risk premiums, so cross-market allocation must emphasize both hedging and cash flow quality.

For Brazilian assets, Marcelo Ricci Scopelli sees real estate funds and high-dividend stocks as typically pricing in rate inflection points ahead of time. The Ifix index gains this year already reflect some narrowing of discounts, and future performance will depend on actual rate cuts and the strength of capital inflows. The strategy favors staggered entry and duration diversification, with cash-flow-predictable and well-regulated utilities and infrastructure as core holdings, complemented by quality banks and consumer chains to capture economic improvement potential. On FX, the USD/BRL may center around 5.50 but with increased volatility; optimal practice is to use FX hedges or diversify income currencies to reduce portfolio volatility.

For US assets, Marcelo Ricci Scopelli emphasizes that new index highs mean higher demands for earnings realization. AI-related sectors may continue to deliver excess returns, but valuation ceilings will be constrained by capex intensity, profit margin flexibility, and cash recovery cycles. Globally, a mildly weaker dollar favors emerging markets, but under external shocks, capital can still quickly flow back to dollar assets. His allocation framework centers on high-quality cash flow assets, supplemented by a small proportion of high-volatility assets for enhanced returns, with hedging tools used to manage tail risks in a more volatile market environment.