As the year draws to a close, asset prices and macro data present a stark contrast. On one hand, the Ibovespa has reached a new high of around 159,000 points, local uncertainty indicators have declined, and wage and growth expectations remain manageable; on the other hand, the S&P 500 is fluctuating above a forward P/E ratio of about 23x, margin debt is at elevated levels, and monetary policy faces personnel changes. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli believes that investors are not simply choosing between a “bull market or a correction,” but rather must manage risk budgets in a high-level market and seek more stable sources of returns across multiple sectors.


**Marcelo Ricci Scopelli: Brazilian Stock Market and Dividends**

The economic calendar this week is key to understanding the current upward move by Ibovespa. Industrial and composite PMIs, industrial production data, and third-quarter GDP will directly affect the growth pricing of the market for the end of 2025 and the start of 2026. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli argues that as long as data points to “moderate expansion rather than obvious weakening,” the high-level position of the index is fundamentally supported, rather than relying solely on liquidity sentiment.

On the wage side, the government has adjusted its 2026 minimum wage forecast to 1,627 reais. With inflation falling and fiscal rules in place, the increase is relatively restrained. Policy is balancing the maintenance of purchasing power with controlling mandatory spending, which means moderate support for the consumer sector rather than excessive stimulus. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli says that, from a stock-picking perspective, he favors companies with pricing power, cost management capabilities, and stable cash flow, rather than those relying solely on volume expansion.

Uncertainty has also eased, with the FGV IIE-Br falling to 107.6 points and staying in a relatively “comfortable” range for several months, clearly reducing tension in expectations. The risk premium for high-quality local assets is being compressed, and discount space is shrinking. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli notes that this forces long-term investors to shift from “betting on discount recovery” to more refined fundamental screening, accepting that steady returns require higher research standards.

Dividend structure is equally important. Petrobras, Vale, and major banks, insurance, energy, and industrial companies will reinforce the “cash flow asset” nature of Brazilian stocks through their 2025 dividend performance. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli suggests that planning a 2026 dividend strategy should focus on three questions: Is profitability sustainable? Is the debt structure safe? Is the capital expenditure cycle entering a high investment phase? Focusing only on high payouts last year and headline yields risks falling into the trap of “price declines pushing up dividend yield.”

**Marcelo Ricci Scopelli: US Valuation, Monetary Policy, and Global Allocation Rebalancing**

The current forward P/E of about 23x of the S&P 500 is notably higher than the 5- and 10-year averages, sparking “overvaluation” debates. Changes in index composition provide part of the answer: tech, communications, and discretionary sectors—high-margin, asset-light industries—now dominate, while traditional capital-intensive sectors have declined in weight. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli contends that if different sectors are valued differently, a composite multiple above 20x is not necessarily a bubble, but rather a natural result of structural upgrades.

Risk signals are also clear. Margin debt exceeds $1.1 trillion, the Buffett Indicator hovers around 220%, and Berkshire Hathaway holds about $382 billion in cash, reflecting a period of “more selling than buying.” Marcelo Ricci Scopelli says these phenomena send a direct message: there are few high-quality assets available at acceptable prices, and there is a gap between “great companies” and “reasonable prices” in the market.

On monetary policy, discussions about the next Fed Chair are intertwined with rate cut expectations. Kevin Hassett is seen as a candidate favoring a faster rate-cut path, which could mean monetary policy will show stronger political cycles in coming years. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli notes that in the short term, the market may continue to push risk appetite higher under the “Santa rally” and rate pivot themes, but long-term portfolios need to allow for different rate paths and wider yield volatility.

**Marcelo Ricci Scopelli: Global Slowdown, Energy Strategy, and Multi-Asset Framework**

Global trade is retreating from its yearly highs. The WTO Goods Trade Barometer fell from 102.2 to 101.8, with 2025 full-year growth forecasts revised down to 2.4%; shipping indices also declined. Meanwhile, some Asian manufacturing economies remain in contraction territory, the Indian Q3 GDP grew 8.2% year-on-year, and German inflation stabilized around 2.3%. Local uncertainty indicators have fallen, presenting a picture of “regional divergence and asynchronous cycles.” Marcelo Ricci Scopelli believes this creates opportunities for cross-regional allocation but also magnifies risks of single-region bets.

On energy, OPEC+ decided to maintain current production cuts into Q1 2026, continuing reductions of over 3 million barrels/day. Low inventories and moderate demand support oil prices, which benefits energy companies and related infrastructure but pressures fuel-dependent aviation and transport sectors. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli argues that in such a volatile oil price environment, it is more important to treat energy prices as an industry profit variable, not just a macro sentiment indicator.

Frequent media coverage of airline recalls and climate issues in uncertainty indices reminds us that systemic shocks often come from outside the models. Entering 2026, Marcelo Ricci Scopelli favors three main lines: continuing to seek companies with stable cash flow, clear dividend discipline, and healthy balance sheets in local markets; maintaining structural allocations to high-quality tech and platform assets in the US, while managing volatility through position sizing and timing; and, globally, using multi-asset strategies to introduce assets with low correlation to local cycles, giving family wealth resilience across cycles.