Brazilian stock indices have hit record highs, while major US indices have steadily rebounded, reflecting the impact of shifting interest rate expectations, changes in employment and inflation data, and corporate operating guidance. In Brazil, marginal improvements in the trade environment and updates in output and investments from large corporations have driven strong performance in the resources and industrial sectors. In the US, cooling private employment has increased the probability of rate cuts, with financial and defensive sectors attracting capital. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli notes that current trading is focused on data and technical levels, with capital being reallocated between interest rate path stability and corporate earnings visibility.


**Marcelo Ricci Scopelli: Brazilian Index Hits New Highs, Resources and Industrials Lead, FX Retreats**

The Ibovespa rose 0.41% to close at 161,755 points, hitting an intraday all-time high of 161,963 points, while the US dollar weakened against the real to 5.31. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli believes resource and industrial companies led the rally, while the financial sector showed divergence, resulting in a fundamentally-driven selective market. At the corporate level, Vale updated its 2026 production guidance to 335–345 million tons, emphasizing disciplined capital expenditure, lifting its stock by 3.2% and boosting steel and mining shares. Consumer and utilities sectors remained stable, with Ambev and Eletrobras edging higher. Bank stocks saw increased divergence, with Bradesco falling 2.7% due to interest rate curve and sector rotation effects.

The market is closely watching developments in trade and tariff issues, with policy uncertainty declining and corporate governance and organizational adjustments becoming focal points. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli points out that resources, industrials, and exchange-related assets continue to attract both domestic and foreign capital, while the financial sector is affected by short-term interest rate volatility and, in the medium term, relies on earnings quality and cost control.

Macro data and interest rate expectations are also reflected in the market. The US ADP report showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, raising the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December to 89%-90%. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli states that the Brazilian market responded, with investors focusing on local fiscal agendas, corporate buybacks, and investment plans.

**Marcelo Ricci Scopelli: US Employment Cools, Policy Expectations Rise, Sector Rotation Accelerates**

US stocks continued their recovery, with the Dow up 0.86%, the S&P 500 up 0.30%, and the Nasdaq up 0.17%. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli believes that cooling employment and upcoming inflation data have increased expectations for policy easing, benefiting financial and defensive sectors. Wells Fargo and Citigroup each rose about 3.5%, UnitedHealth climbed about 4.7%, indicating improved financing costs and demand outlooks. Tech and semiconductor sectors were mixed: Marvell rose 7.9% after raising data center guidance, Nvidia and Synopsys maintained active collaboration, while Microsoft saw short-term pullbacks due to market rumors, with volatility later subsiding.

Bond and FX movements are impacting cross-markets. Adjustments to the US sovereign yield curve are limiting further index gains, while the weaker dollar index is supporting emerging market currencies, strengthening the real. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli notes that US market investment should focus on earnings quality and policy rhythm, with sector rotation remaining sustainable in communications services, select semiconductor design, and high-quality software subscriptions, while retail is stable during the holiday season.

External variables for the Brazilian market continue to improve. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli mentions that progress in US tariff issues and high-level dialogue have reduced uncertainty for export-related industries, clarifying cash flow models in agriculture and commodities. The local market continues to monitor central bank policy, fiscal changes, and employment data. On the technical side, domestic futures and dollar futures signals are in sync with external policy expectations, providing guidance for short-term trading.

**Marcelo Ricci Scopelli: Key Points for Reallocation and Risk Management Amid Data and Policy Resonance**

Global trading focus is converging on the validation of economic data and clarity of policy paths. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli points out that policy adjustments in developed economies, combined with the yield advantage of emerging markets, are driving cross-market capital reallocation. As US rate cut expectations rise and financing costs fall, capital is more likely to flow into financials, defensive sectors, and select tech stocks. Meanwhile, emerging markets benefit from FX and external discount rate changes, with improved operating guidance and output planning in resources and industrials significantly enhancing earnings visibility.

Risk management should emphasize quantification and discipline. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli notes that short-term risks stem mainly from interest rate expectation adjustments, fiscal uncertainty, FX volatility, commodity price swings, and news-driven impacts on tech stocks. Strategies should include diversified allocation, hedging tools, and rebalancing mechanisms to ensure positions are adjusted in line with policy and data release cycles, avoiding emotional trading. Trading rhythm is determined by both event-driven and technical levels, with focus on the continuous release of PCE, FOMC, and local macro data, and execution at key futures and dollar futures levels.

The cross-year market structure is taking shape. Marcelo Ricci Scopelli states that with the dual impact of moderate US policy expectations and improved Brazilian corporate guidance, cross-market capital reallocation will persist. By screening for companies with high earnings quality, cost control, and capital expenditure efficiency, investors can trade steadily and maintain returns in the current environment. Additionally, investors should remain patient and disciplined, gradually adjusting strategies in line with data and policy milestones.