# Grant Allocation the Crypto Way --- ## Conditional Funding Markets --- ### participants  --- ### metrics  --- ### funding asks & budget  --- ### selection based on ROI  --- ## prediction markets --- ### forecasted event *Will Trump win the Nov 2024 election?* *What will the price of Bitcoin be on 2025-01-01?* --- ### oracle question Value of an objective metric at a given point in time.   --- ### outcome tokens example: *Will Trump win?*  ---  --- ### market mechanism: AMM Buy/sell outcome tokens, based on your forecast!  --- ### market prices are odds! Incentive compatilibity: you want to trade up/down where your forecast is.  --- ### scalar markets  --- ## conditional prediction markets or *decision markets* --- ### which metric? *"Vote on Values": what do we want to optimize for?* - yes/no: meeting a deadline?… - scalar: revenue, fees generated, TVL… --- ### conditional tokens *Will proposal pass?*  ---  --- ### conditional markets, conditional odds  --- ### decision rule *if pass > fail + 20%: execute proposal* ---