# AI Analysis of the Circular Economy - HE proposal concept
NYS - 210430

## motivation

- climate change goals => economic "normal" must change
- how to switch to circular production and consumption?
- lack knowledge on current circularity state of supply chains
- lack knowledge on effects of policies
- lack knowledge on how to ensure the transition to circularity benefits all of society

## expected outcomes

TBD

## objectives

1. Insights into state of circularity in European supply chains and manufacturing

2. Insights into how economic production is affected by the transition to circularity

3. Insights into the pros and cons of socio-economic-political policy levers

## possible research questions

1. Digital twin of dynamics of the implementation of circular manufacturing
- modelling different actors in different time horizons
- international value chain
- 0-20 year horizon (0-10 member state, 10-20 european)

2. Security of supply, resilience of value chains
- how SC affected if switch from neo-liberal to circular approach
- linear risk (resource, economics etc) vs non-linear (pandemic)
- raw material info system (at Euro level)
- making existing database more realistic, risk-aware, dynamic

3. Inclusive transitions
- how transition to circularity work for everyone
- behaviour of actors in system, strategic actions, response to policies
- responsible design of system/policy
- sustainable by design

4. Strategic autonomy - policy implictations
- risks accumulate
- network stability
- political/strategic dimensions

5. Decision making process - how models used
- insight from (simple) models to a group of stakeholders
- super-advanced models not useful if not used, insightful for decisions by e.g. ministries
- political/social aspects

To be discussed:
* Do we look at B2B or/and B2C market?
* If B2C: consumr behaviors (ordering and return) interacts with designs (accessabilities, dynamic pricing)
* Will we also consider the internal decisions within companies?

## case studies

A (NL-Flanders)
B (Norway?)
C (Greece?)
D (Italy?)

## approach

conceptual framework analysis
multi-modelling
agent-based modelling
simulation (digital twin)
business models
social science: how decisions made, decision processes could change
political science
case studies

## partners

NL: ministries, CBS?, TNO?, Nijmegen?, TU/e, TUD
* Anne van Bruggen, RIVM
* Igor Nikolic, TUD - ABM, multi-modelling
* Mattheüs van de Pol, Ministerie van Economische Zaken en Klimaat
* Tarkan Tan, TU/e - supply chain
* Neil Yorke-Smith, TUD - ABM, AI algorithms
* Yingqian Zhang, TU/e - data-driven optimisation, ABM
NL companies? ASML, Philips, +SMEs
Flanders: ministries, ...
Norway?
Greece?
Italy?

## expertise to be added

- business modelling
- economics
- law
- political science
- social science

## target calls & size

Sept 2021 or Feb 2022; 3-12M EUR

Options:
1. Horizon-CL4-2022-TWIN-TRANSITION-01-07: Digital tools to support the engineering of a Circular Economy:

* Inclusion and handling of real-time production data in analysis software and tools, notably for decision making and control. Specific focus is on sustainable production environment and supply chains with areas such as material saving, repair, refurbishing, re-manufacturing, recycling and reuse.
* EU contribution per project: 3.00 - 6.00 million, 3 projects granted
* Indicative budget: EUR 28.00 million
* Type of Action: Research and Innovation Actions
* Deadline: 2 February 2022
* TRL: Start at TRL 4, end at TRL 7

2.

## notes

actor dynamics vs. product dynamics