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http://naretev.se/tftrolldownsimulator/

※此表格是以抽同一隻來計算
注意： 沒考慮場上其他同塊的比例

* 同塊的比例
舉例來說：今天外面許多人拿了許多安妮，此時牌庫裡其他12張1費卡會相對多數，而安妮就變得相當難出，
因此這個期望值是個約數。

原Excel檔
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OEqtESZqRUj5nMZDhoWX0GJtl4IjfX5_xeJrxur-HcQ/edit?usp=sharing 期望值數字

目標： 4、5 等 1費； 5、6、7等 2費； 5、6、7、8等 3費； 6、7、8、9等 4費； 7﹑8、9、10等 5費

等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
4 1 55% 22 4.727 9.455
4 1 55% 21 4.952 9.905
4 1 55% 20 5.200 10.400
4 1 55% 19 5.474 10.947
4 1 55% 18 5.778 11.556
4 1 55% 17 6.118 12.235
4 1 55% 16 6.500 13.000
4 1 55% 15 6.933 13.867
4 1 55% 14 7.429 14.857
4 1 55% 13 8.000 16.000
4 1 55% 12 8.667 17.333
4 1 55% 11 9.455 18.909
4 1 55% 10 10.400 20.800
4 1 55% 9 11.556 23.111
4 1 55% 8 13.000 26.000
4 1 55% 7 14.857 29.714
4 1 55% 6 17.333 34.667
4 1 55% 5 20.800 41.600
4 1 55% 4 26.000 52.000
4 1 55% 3 34.667 69.333
4 1 55% 2 52.000 104.000
4 1 55% 1 104.000 208.000
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
5 1 45% 22 5.778 11.556
5 1 45% 21 6.053 12.106
5 1 45% 20 6.356 12.711
5 1 45% 19 6.690 13.38
5 1 45% 18 7.062 14.123
5 1 45% 17 7.477 14.954
5 1 45% 16 7.944 15.889
5 1 45% 15 8.474 16.948
5 1 45% 14 9.079 18.159
5 1 45% 13 9.778 19.556
5 1 45% 12 10.593 21.185
5 1 45% 11 11.556 23.111
5 1 45% 10 12.711 25.422
5 1 45% 9 14.123 28.247
5 1 45% 8 15.889 31.778
5 1 45% 7 18.159 36.317
5 1 45% 6 21.185 42.370
5 1 45% 5 25.422 50.844
5 1 45% 4 31.778 63.556
5 1 45% 3 63.556 127.111
5 1 45% 1 127.111 254.222
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
5 2 33% 20 7.879 15.758
5 2 33% 19 8.293 16.587
5 2 33% 18 8.754 17.508
5 2 33% 17 9.269 18.538
5 2 33% 16 9.848 19.697
5 2 33% 15 10.505 21.010
5 2 33% 14 11.255 22.511
5 2 33% 13 12.121 24.242
5 2 33% 12 13.131 26.263
5 2 33% 11 14.325 28.650
5 2 33% 10 15.758 31.515
5 2 33% 9 17.508 35.017
5 2 33% 8 19.697 39.394
5 2 33% 7 22.511 45.022
5 2 33% 6 26.263 52.525
5 2 33% 5 31.515 63.030
5 2 33% 4 39.394 78.788
5 2 33% 3 52.525 105.051
5 2 33% 2 78.788 157.576
5 2 33% 1 157.576 315.152
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
6 2 40% 20 6.500 13.000
6 2 40% 19 6.842 13.684
6 2 40% 18 7.222 14.444
6 2 40% 17 7.647 15.294
6 2 40% 16 8.125 16.250
6 2 40% 15 8.667 17.333
6 2 40% 14 9.286 18.571
6 2 40% 13 10.000 20.000
6 2 40% 12 10.833 21.667
6 2 40% 11 11.818 23.636
6 2 40% 10 13.000 26.000
6 2 40% 9 14.444 28.888
6 2 40% 8 16.250 32.500
6 2 40% 7 18.571 37.143
6 2 40% 6 21.667 43.333
6 2 40% 5 26.000 52.000
6 2 40% 4 32.500 65.000
6 2 40% 3 43.333 86.667
6 2 40% 2 65.000 130.000
6 2 40% 1 130.000 260.000
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
7 2 33% 20 7.879 15.758
7 2 33% 19 8.293 16.587
7 2 33% 18 8.754 17.508
7 2 33% 17 9.269 18.538
7 2 33% 16 9.848 19.697
7 2 33% 15 10.505 21.010
7 2 33% 14 11.255 22.511
7 2 33% 13 12,121 24.242
7 2 33% 12 13.131 26.262
7 2 33% 11 14.325 28.650
7 2 33% 10 15.758 31.515
7 2 33% 9 17.508 35.017
7 2 33% 8 19.697 39.394
7 2 33% 7 22.511 45.922
7 2 33% 6 26.262 52.525
7 2 33% 5 31.515 63.030
7 2 33% 4 39.394 78.788
7 2 33% 3 52.525 105.051
7 2 33% 2 78.788 157.576
7 2 33% 1 157.576 315.152
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
5 3 20% 17 13.000 26.000
5 3 20% 16 13.813 27.625
5 3 20% 15 14.733 29.467
5 3 20% 14 15.786 31.571
5 3 20% 13 17.000 34.000
5 3 20% 12 18.417 36.833
5 3 20% 11 20.091 40.182
5 3 20% 10 22.100 44.200
5 3 20% 9 24.556 49.111
5 3 20% 8 27.625 55.250
5 3 20% 7 31.571 63.143
5 3 20% 6 36.833 73.667
5 3 20% 5 44.200 88.400
5 3 20% 4 55.250 110.500
5 3 20% 3 73.667 147.333
5 3 20% 2 110.500 221.100
5 3 20% 1 221.000 442.000
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
6 3 25% 17 10.400 20.800
6 3 25% 16 11.050 22.100
6 3 25% 15 11.787 23.573
6 3 25% 14 12.629 25.257
6 3 25% 13 13.600 27.200
6 3 25% 12 14.733 29.467
6 3 25% 11 16.073 32.145
6 3 25% 10 17.680 35.360
6 3 25% 9 19.644 39.289
6 3 25% 8 22.100 44.200
6 3 25% 7 25.257 50.514
6 3 25% 6 29.467 58.933
6 3 25% 5 35.360 70.720
6 3 25% 4 44.200 88.400
6 3 25% 3 58.933 117.867
6 3 25% 2 88.400 176.800
6 3 25% 1 176.800 353.600
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
7 3 36% 17 7.222 14.444
7 3 36% 16 7.674 15.347
7 3 36% 15 8.185 16.370
7 3 36% 14 8.770 17.540
7 3 36% 13 9.444 18.889
7 3 36% 12 10.231 20.463
7 3 36% 11 11.161 22.323
7 3 36% 10 12.278 24.556
7 3 36% 9 13.642 27.284
7 3 36% 8 15.347 30.694
7 3 36% 7 17.540 35.079
7 3 36% 6 20.463 40.926
7 3 36% 5 24.556 49.111
7 3 36% 4 30.694 61.389
7 3 36% 3 40.926 81.852
7 3 36% 2 61.389 122.78
7 3 36% 1 122.778 245.556
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
8 3 32% 17 8.125 16.250
8 3 32% 16 8.633 17.266
8 3 32% 15 9.208 18.417
8 3 32% 14 9.866 19.732
8 3 32% 13 10.625 21.250
8 3 32% 12 11.510 23.021
8 3 32% 11 12.557 25.114
8 3 32% 10 13.813 27.625
8 3 32% 9 15.347 30.694
8 3 32% 8 17.266 34.531
8 3 32% 7 19.732 39.464
8 3 32% 6 23.021 46.042
8 3 32% 5 27.625 55.250
8 3 32% 4 34.531 69.063
8 3 32% 3 46.042 92.083
8 3 32% 2 69.063 138.125
8 3 32% 1 138.125 276.250
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
6 4 5% 10 48.000 96.000
6 4 5% 9 53.333 106.667
6 4 5% 8 60.000 120.000
6 4 5% 7 68.571 137.143
6 4 5% 6 80.000 160.000
6 4 5% 5 96.000 192.000
6 4 5% 4 120.000 240.000
6 4 5% 3 160.000 320.000
6 4 5% 2 240.000 480.000
6 4 5% 1 480.000 960.000
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
7 4 10% 10 24.000 48.000
7 4 10% 9 26.667 53.333
7 4 10% 8 30.000 60.000
7 4 10% 7 34.286 68.571
7 4 10% 6 40.000 80.000
7 4 10% 5 48.000 96.000
7 4 10% 4 60.000 120.000
7 4 10% 3 80.000 160.000
7 4 10% 2 120.000 240.000
7 4 10% 1 240.000 480.000
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
8 4 22% 10 10.909 21.818
8 4 22% 9 12.121 24.242
8 4 22% 8 13.636 27.273
8 4 22% 7 15.584 31.169
8 4 22% 6 18.182 36.364
8 4 22% 5 21.818 43.636
8 4 22% 4 27.273 54.545
8 4 22% 3 36.364 72.727
8 4 22% 2 54.545 109.091
8 4 22% 1 109.091 218.182
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
9 4 35% 10 6.857 13.714
9 4 35% 9 7.619 15.238
9 4 35% 8 8.571 17.143
9 4 35% 7 9.796 19.592
9 4 35% 6 11.429 22.857
9 4 35% 5 13.714 27.429
9 4 35% 4 17.143 34.286
9 4 35% 3 22.857 45.714
9 4 35% 2 34.286 68.571
9 4 35% 1 68.571 137.143
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
10 4 40% 10 6.000 12.000
10 4 40% 9 6.667 13.333
10 4 40% 8 7.500 15.400
10 4 40% 7 8.571 17.142
10 4 40% 6 10.000 20.000
10 4 40% 5 12.000 24.000
10 4 40% 4 15.400 30.000
10 4 40% 3 20.000 40.000
10 4 40% 2 30.000 60.000
10 4 40% 1 60.000 120.000
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
7 5 1% 9 160.000 320.000
7 5 1% 8 180.000 360.000
7 5 1% 7 205.714 411.429
7 5 1% 6 240.000 480.000
7 5 1% 5 288.000 576.000
7 5 1% 4 360.000 720.000
7 5 1% 3 480.000 960.000
7 5 1% 2 720.000 1440.000
7 5 1% 1 1440.000 2880.000
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
8 5 3% 9 53.333 106.667
8 5 3% 8 60.000 120.000
8 5 3% 7 68.571 137.143
8 5 3% 6 80.000 160.000
8 5 3% 5 96.000 192.000
8 5 3% 4 120.000 240.000
8 5 3% 3 160.000 320.000
8 5 3% 2 240.000 480.000
8 5 3% 1 480.000 960.000
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
9 5 10% 9 16.000 32.000
9 5 10% 8 18.000 36.000
9 5 10% 7 20.571 41.143
9 5 10% 6 24.000 48.000
9 5 10% 5 28.800 57.600
9 5 10% 4 36.000 72.000
9 5 10% 3 48.000 96.000
9 5 10% 2 72.000 144.000
9 5 10% 1 144.000 288.000
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
10 5 25% 9 6.400 12.800
10 5 25% 8 7.200 14.400
10 5 25% 7 8.229 16.457
10 5 25% 6 9.600 19.200
10 5 25% 5 11.520 23.040
10 5 25% 4 14.400 28.800
10 5 25% 3 19.200 38.400
10 5 25% 2 28.800 57.600
10 5 25% 1 57.600 115.200

image

經典高等找1費

等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
7 1 20% 22 13.000 26.000
7 1 20% 21 13.619 27.238
7 1 20% 20 14.300 28.600
7 1 20% 19 15.052 30.105
7 1 20% 18 15.888 31.778
7 1 20% 17 16.824 33.647
7 1 20% 16 17.875 35.750
7 1 20% 15 19.067 38.133
7 1 20% 14 20.429 40.857
7 1 20% 13 22.000 44.000
7 1 20% 12 23.833 47.667
7 1 20% 11 26.000 52.000
7 1 20% 10 28.600 57.200
7 1 20% 9 31.778 63.556
7 1 20% 8 35.750 71.500
7 1 20% 7 40.857 81.714
7 1 20% 6 47.667 95.333
7 1 20% 5 57.200 114.000
7 1 20% 4 71.500 143.000
7 1 20% 3 95.333 190.667
7 1 20% 2 143.000 286.000
7 1 20% 1 286.000 572.000
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
8 1 18% 22 14.444 28.889
8 1 18% 21 15.132 30.265
8 1 18% 20 15.889 31.778
8 1 18% 19 16.725 33.450
8 1 18% 18 17.654 35.309
8 1 18% 17 18.693 37.386
8 1 18% 16 19.861 39.722
8 1 18% 15 21.185 42.370
8 1 18% 14 22.698 45.397
8 1 18% 13 24.444 48.889
8 1 18% 12 26.481 52.963
8 1 18% 11 28.889 57.778
8 1 18% 10 31.778 63.556
8 1 18% 9 35.309 70.617
8 1 18% 8 39.722 79.444
8 1 18% 7 45.397 90.794
8 1 18% 6 52.963 105.926
8 1 18% 5 63.556 127.111
8 1 18% 4 79.444 158.889
8 1 18% 3 105.926 211.852
8 1 18% 2 158.889 317.778
8 1 18% 1 317.778 635.556
等級 要的卡費用 機率 牌池剩餘數量 期望次數 期望金錢
9 1 10% 22 26.000 52.000
9 1 10% 21 27.238 54.476
9 1 10% 20 28.600 57.200
9 1 10% 19 30.105 60.211
9 1 10% 18 31.778 63.556
9 1 10% 17 33.647 67.294
9 1 10% 16 35.750 71.500
9 1 10% 15 38.133 76.267
9 1 10% 14 40.857 81.714
9 1 10% 13 44.000 88.000
9 1 10% 12 47.667 95.333
9 1 10% 11 52.000 104.000
9 1 10% 10 57.200 114.400
9 1 10% 9 63.556 127.111
9 1 10% 8 71.500 143.000
9 1 10% 7 81.714 163.429
9 1 10% 6 95.333 190.667
9 1 10% 5 114.400 228.800
9 1 10% 4 143.000 286.000
9 1 10% 3 190.667 381.333
9 1 10% 2 286.000 572.000
9 1 10% 1 572.000 1144.000
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