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title: PROBABILITY AND EVIDENCE

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https://us.sagepub.com/sites/default/files/upm-assets/18552_book_item_18552.pdf

$\mathcal{E}$: one or more items of evidence (perhaps its totality).

We need to consider how this evidence affects the comparison of the hypotheses, H0(innocent) and H1(guilt) say, offered by either side

So, The adjudicator needs to assess his or her conditional probability for eitherhypothesis, given the evidence: Pr(H0|E) and Pr(H1|E).

But, it will not usually be possible to assess these directly

it will often be reasonable to assess directly Pr(E|H0) and Pr(E|H1)

Pr(H0|E): POSTERIOR 有了證據後有罪的機率
Pr(H0): PRIOR 沒有證據時有罪的機率