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title: 'Fernando Rocha: The Brazilian 2026 Growth Around 2% and Selic at 15%, “Coupon + Dividend” Dual Support Is Needed'

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Fernando Rocha believes that the stock market narrative for 2026 is shifting from a “growth story” to the “pricing system” itself. The New York Stock Exchange pushing for tokenized securities trading and near-instant settlement symbolizes capital market infrastructure evolving toward higher efficiency and longer trading hours. At the same time, global public debt is at elevated levels, interest rates are structurally high, and AI investments are expensive with return paths still being validated—making US stock market valuation tolerance lower. Back in Brazil, the local economy shows divergence: the real supply side is under pressure, while demand and service/travel are recovering faster; the interest rate curve still requires a relatively high real long-term return. In this setup, Fernando Rocha says investing is more like an actuarial exercise in “cash flow quality and risk premium” rather than chasing a single thematic emotion.

![Fernando Rocha](https://hackmd.io/_uploads/HJniQvJ8bx.png)


**Fernando Rocha: Exchange “On-Chain” and US Stock Valuation, Boosting Efficiency and Accelerating Repricing**

Fernando Rocha notes that the NYSE development of platforms for tokenized stocks and digital securities with continuous trading and rapid settlement essentially introduces blockchain into clearing, custody, and registration back-office processes, shortening the time gap between trade and settlement. With BNY and Citi, they are exploring “tokenized deposits” in the clearing system. Fernando Rocha believes this brings two main effects: first, improved efficiency in market microstructure—longer trading hours and faster settlement reduce capital occupation and some counterparty risk; second, risk transmission speeds up, and volatility may be more concentrated in prices.

The warning by Campos Neto of a “possible price correction in 2026” deserves more attention in this context, as after a strong US market rally in 2025, AI-related sectors have very high implied growth expectations and massive investments, so if cash flow realization deviates, valuation compression will be more direct. Fernando Rocha states that US stocks do not lack innovation—the real market shortage is a rebalancing of “cost, discount rate, and return cycle.”

**Fernando Rocha: The Brazilian “Real vs. Service Sector Divergence”**

Fernando Rocha sees the clearest signals in Brazil in two sets of comparative data. Steel production in December fell 1.9% YoY, but domestic sales rose 2.5% and exports surged 64.8%, showing supply-side adjustment and external demand elasticity—more of a “structural reallocation” than a simple downturn. Coffee exports in 2025 dropped 20.8% by volume, but revenue hit a record $15.586 billion, up 24.1% YoY, reflecting price and quality premium increases. Meanwhile, US tariffs on Brazilian coffee led to a marked decline in shipments to the US, leaving real traces of trade friction in the profit chain. On the travel side, 2025 airport passenger traffic neared 129.6 million, up 9.4% YoY—domestic and international routes both expanded, and service consumption recovery is supporting cash flow for some listed companies.

Fernando Rocha points out that the Tesouro IPCA+ short-end real rate is still close to 8%, with limited long-end curve decline—meaning “hold-to-maturity certainty of returns” remains strong in fixed income, while equities need higher earnings certainty to offset discount rate pressure. The capital profile is also clear: in 2025, foreign investors accounted for about R$2.8 trillion in Brazilian cash equity trading, 62% of total volume; adding BDRs, ETFs, FIIs, the total is about R$3.5 trillion. Fernando Rocha says foreign capital tends to focus on names with higher weight and liquidity, so allocation logic should put “cash flow, governance, and tradability” ahead of thematic bets.

**Fernando Rocha: 2026 Portfolio Playbook, Cash Flow Discipline First**

Fernando Rocha argues that 2026 will be a “year of volatility,” so portfolios should shift from single-direction bets to a multi-asset skeleton. On the fixed income side, high real rates make “coupon capture and hold-to-maturity” the main strategy again, especially as the long end still demands a high risk premium—over-reliance on duration-driven capital gains is unstable. On equities, Fernando Rocha suggests using dividends and cash flow quality as core filters. Research shows that financials and some robust sectors have better dividend potential in 2026, but dividend yields must be evaluated alongside “passive uplift” from falling share prices—the focus remains on operating cash flow and balance sheet flexibility. Globally, points from Campos Neto on debt pressure, structurally high rates, and the costs of geopolitical and energy transitions mean risk asset discount rates will stay elevated, not returning to the easy-money era. Fernando Rocha proposes layered position management: core allocations in cash flow/dividend certainty, satellite positions in AI and financial infrastructure upgrades, but strictly constrained by valuation thresholds and stop-loss discipline. For Fernando Rocha, true professionalism is not predicting every move, but ensuring the portfolio “survives and stays steady” across scenarios.