##### Link: "[Judicial reform & the situation in Israel](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4iKCeKdqM8)"
##### DATE: 14 August 2023

Haviv (HRG) -- [senior political analyst for Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/writers/haviv-gur/) -- will discuss ...
> Background of the key issues
> Current debate
> His reasons for optimism

Introduced by David Siegel (DS), President of ELNET. His opening Q - "what's at stake & who are the key players?"

**HRG**: Are there two sides? No, more like a few dozen. Only ten months ago, a relative handful of people in Israel were seriously discussing judicial reform and the Supreme Court. Eight months ago, the whole country was on fire about it. It hasn't settled down. So clearly, the debate over the future of the court is a proxy for much larger issues and concerns.

If you ask everyday Israelis how they feel about what's going on, you will hear them talk about complex aspects of the judicial system. That may seem surprising but many have really dived deeply into tryingt o understand that! But only a few have a grasp of how the questions being raised can ever be resolved. So they are involved and they care deeply, mainly because they sense that something serious is happening to Israeli society and solidarity and they don't trust the other side (whichever side they are on).

Those against "judicial reform" believe they know two things for sure:

* the ruling coalition can't be trusted.
* their narrative is suspicious - really, they are trying to "protect democracy" ... ?

Those in favor of judicial reform - that is, reining in the power of the Supreme Court - feel they are not represented by the judiciary, and have felt that way for a long time. Basically, since forever. Judges are seen as a key part of the power of the old guard of Israel (ashkenazim) and the system is self-perpetuating because they appoint their own successors. And yet the country has changed. These people are now a small fraction of the society. So what happens to the court has become the vocabulary people can use to talk about other, larger, deeper things that need to change.

Switching to the primary interviewer, [Daniel Shadmy](https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-shadmy/) (**DS**) - Q: So, is this the beginning of a collapse of society or is it a further evolution, into a new era?

**HRG**: Not a collapse; I am not that pessimistic. In fact, I am "profoundly optimistic." Yes, Israel's Supreme Court is immensely powerful within the society. Yet it's partly because of a perceived need to fill a void due to the lack of other checks & balances outside of the role it has come to play. The governance of Israel is remarkably simplistic. There is just one national election and MKs are not even elected directly and don't represent geographic districts. They are appointed by their party's list. The executive (that is, the President) then determines and appoints whichever coalition of parties has the legislative majority to form a government. It's a clumsy process and it doesn't make people confident in the way the system works. So there's been a huge gap in our constitutional order. Eventually, we were going to need to deal with that.

The way we have needed to consider the interests of minorities has also changed. E.g., the Haredi (ultra-orthodox) have gone from 3% to 13% in the last 20-25 years. Now that they are so much larger, they have a lot more votes and thus a lot more political power. So their status in society has become even more of an issue than it was before - and it's always been something of an issue because of their unique situation vis-a-vis the military; they are not required to serve. So these are old questions that have grown increasingly urgent over the years and have been ignored for far too long. Ideally, they will now somehow get addressed as part of the overall changes.

**DS**: In the 1990s, there was deep concern about the Arab sector growing and eventually becoming both an internal threat and a drag on the economy because they were so much poorer than other segments of society and did not work. But that concern has since largely dissipated because over time. They have become more integrated into the larger society in terms of being educated, joining the workforce. What are the chances a similar trend will take place with the Haredi?

**HRG**: True. Even as recently as 10-12 years ago, half of Arab women did not work because it was a "cultural choice." But in 2012, a new law took effect that created a "negative income tax" which added income to Arab women who did work and made a certain amount. That is, "if you make at least X, we will add Y." This was a huge incentive that brought a lot more Arab women into the workforce. Which in turn positively changed the nature of their communities and their role in society. It shows that policy choices can lead to good outcomes.

But this is what has been frustrating with the Haredi community. They have resisted this for much longer and they are even stronger in their resistance now. How so? By using political power to vote as a bloc and ensure that the system continues to shift money from other segments of society to their segment. And it's created a "ton of blowback."

For example, a Bank of Israel report earlier in the year published numbers that were shocking to a lot of people. The study looked at what was the "net gain vs. net loss" of gov't funds for various parts of the population. On average, it showed that a "secular" household loses ~ $500 a month. That is, around $500 of what it puts into the system, through taxes, etc., goes to help people who are a different sector. But an equal gain goes to Haredi households (2,000 shekels). Per household, they get $500 more than what they put in from the system on a monthly basis! This is a forced transfer of massive amounts of funds from one side of the country to the other.

"That's an issue that we have to face. And when we fix it, it's going to a huge upheaval." But that's a fundamental problem at stake with the outcome of reforms. But let's come at it from the other side of the Q. Yes, it's fundamental to the future of society. But when will we finally face this? The point is, the dominance of the center left will weaken with judicial reform and it will "create room" for other institutions to assume power outside the government. "It's time we face that."

**DS**: That's a "very optimistic assessment." So looking at that, and the draft bill that will be discussed in the next Knesset, on how judges are selected. The Haredi parties are clearly not inclined to make concessions on that. How will this go?

**HRG**: The ultra-orthodox parties will definitely push hard for passage of the draft bill. In fact, they really have nothing else on their agenda. There are fewer rabbis than before who give this community its "marching orders," but regardless, this is the most major issue they care about. It's a way to ensure that no court decision will ever force yeshiva boys to go into the military.

How will this play out? Yes, it is causing friction in the ruling coalition. Likud members wants universal military service and they are trying to position it as though the opposition is against the military. Netanyahu on their behalf has asked the coalition partners to drop or at least soften their stance on this issue but it is not going to happen. It's been their #1 concern for decades. Still, the alternative - not having this fight now and waiting another 10 years for it to get resolved - is worse. But the reason it's so hard is that we don't have a strong leader who can "frame this moment for us" and it's clearly not Netanyahu.

What that leader would have to do is step forward and seek reconciliation. We don't want a war. We still want a democracy. The idea has always been to end the court's overreach of power. But the best way to do this is to show that we still believe in checks and balances, and there are other ways to do it than by having a strong court, so come up with other mechanisms at the same time changes to the judicial system take effect. Such as - a second chamber in the legislature, a primary voting system, or MKs representing districts.

The Haredi do not want to serve in the IDF and the "dark secret" is - most in the IDF would just as soon not have them. They do not need to grow exponentially. In fact, they have enough volunteers (I think he means reservist) coming from -- surprise, surprise! -- "secular left" communities. They are in fact deeply patriotic, and "massively willing" to serve. But there still needs to be some sense of fairness.

So how do we get there? It can be something like -- Haredi do not need to serve in the IDF, but they must serve in other way. That would go a long way toward restoring a sense of unity. But we have no leader who is capable of driving this - making it so that Haredi students volunteer in some public sector - the health service, their own community, etc. Then, make this also apply and extend to Arab community.

Polls show that overall, compared to most other countries, Israelis are very happy people. The "social capital" we enjoy is a big reason why - they have large, tight knit families, strong communities, and they don't move around a lot. They build on local connections. People stay put. All sides of the Israeli spectrum have this but in fact the Haredis are the particularly satisfied because their communal life is so cohesive. In the end, this will help us come through this.

**DS**: Let's return to the issue of "a sense of fairness." Let's assume what you describe happens, that things start to fall into place. The sense of shared destiny is restored, a compromise is reached. Will the protests then stop?

**HRG**: The protests are a reflection of people what are in a very diverse group. Some tend toward the right, others the left, but they all share a common concern: "this government does not care what it breaks. They have bought into their own campaign propaganda." The problem is, there is also a lot of conspiratorial thinking out there, fed by irresponsible media and social media. Asking: "Why do we vote right and get left? It's the deep state's fault!" This is what the newsstands are filled with and it creates a suspicious mindset and you end up with a government like this one.

The right wing is as disappointed as the left because the government isn't what they want. So they are united by sense of distrust over it.

If Bibi was no longer beholden to Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, because he needs their 5 votes - five lousy votes but critical to save his coalition - can he not say he will help bring more institutions to preserve democracy, even as they take steps to weaken the court? If they did that, then yes - half the protesters would immediately go home. But the saying is - "Governments earn credit but with Netanyahu you need to get cash." So imagine he gets on TV, and says "I am a 'lower case d' democrat" - we know h's definitely a republican anyway, by US standards. And I don't ask you to just trust me. And even if I did, that would mean I am not really a democrat because real democrats know democratic systems need to allow for checks & balances. They are not be run by any single person." That would help.

If he then said: "so as we are changing the court, we will also (do X) to counterbalance the need for checks and balances. We will add a second chamber to the Knesset. We will create a real a bill of rights as part of this reform. And that will ensure we continue to have a 'lower case d' democracy. The check on power ths added would thus replace the reduction of the court's powers. It would great to see this but unfortunately, Netanyahu is not the leader who can do this because he is no longer trusted by the center right.

**DS**: The media loves polls. Right now, they are saying that if an election happened today, the ruling coalition would lose. So is it a fragile coalition that stays together because of the instability in the country. If so, why wouldn't Netanyahu do what you describe?

**HRG**: True, the polls are bad now for the coalition but when that happens, it's still not enough to force a change of government because you need [a "constructive no confidence](https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-constructive-no-confidence-votes-could-lead-to-governments-replacement/)" step before you call a new election. That is, unless some other leader outside the coalition creates a colation that majority votes in favor of no confidence, you can't call one. But there is no leader capable of doing that now. So the only way to "topple" Bibi is for him to fail to pass a budget in March 2025. That means he is there for the long haul for now but still, he doesn't want to be incapable of doing anything. Because nothing will get done while the country is in such a tumult.

Still, he's at a loss. And we see this reactive situation and people say "it's not the old Netanyahu." And even the newspapers that always stood by him, such as Israel Hayom, are asking the same: "where is he? what is he doing?" It's a problem.

**DS**: So if Bibi isn't in charge, who leading behind the scenes? Is it really Ben-Gvir and Smotrich and [Yair Levin](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/people/minister-of-justice), the judiciary minister?

**HRG**: The gov't is not achieving its goals, whether you look at it from right or left. The Q is why and it circles around Bibi. The people on the right say he's trying, but it's because he cannot get the people behind him. That's the pro-Netanayahu position!

**DS**: So what is the next step for this uncertainty in terms of the Likud element in the coalition ...?

**HRG**: Netanyahu won't go anywhere until he is forced to. "The trial is not going to topple him." He has two more appeals even if he loses the current one ... so that could drag on for years even if he is convicted. So the question becomes, where do we go with him given that situation? He's lost a large part of the political right. People now "parked in the center," Benny Gantz's party, don't support him. These people are now caucusing (so to speak) with the center left. This is an anti-Bibi electorate. So you see 5-10 seats that have shifted away from this government, if you look at the polling now.

So, Bibi is stuck. He cannot replace Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, the "West Bank continues to burn," the protests continue, the Saudi normalization "continues to stumble along" (even though Bibi wants to make that his great legacy for this term). And Bibi is in limbo. And yet, as we approach 2025, when another election is unavoidable, the parties will hunker down, staying together. But once we get closer to that, the politicians need to find something to campaign for - or against. Bibi may then have to manufacture some sort of crisis to continue to lead the government but the rightist flank is going to have campaign against him.

This is the Likud situation. "A dark corridor into a collapse" because on their own, they don't have the numbers to disregard the far right and stay in power. No one in the center-left is even pretending to be interested because they have seen Netanyahu pretend to operate before as a member of a coalition (e.g., with Gantz), then betray it.

*Questions from the audience ....*

1. IDF readness ... is that starting to be at risk?

It's hard to say. I'm not an expert on what is needed, whether there are enough forces, enough readiness, etc. That's a state secret so just as well. But if there is a crisis, a lot will come forward - even those now saying they will stand down. If it's a crisis, they know they must.

A recent public statement by a ranking senior officer that "we are in a crisis in terms of IDF readiness" greatly upset Netanyahu. ([He asked - are you running the country or am I](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-said-to-shout-at-top-generals-over-public-warnings-on-idf-fitness/)?) You are signaling to our enemies we are weak. But in truth, I don't think we are in that level of crisis. The military has the people it needs. It can replace whoever has left quickly enough. "We are in a very strong position given the reality." But what the army and AF leaders are really saying is that if this spreads (reservists opting out, etc.), it could become a problem.

I'm not saying that won't happen. I'm saying the debate we are having as to whether it might happen has to happen. If we can't politicize volunteering in the army, then how can you politicize the Haredi side of it? That question must be asked, even if hurts our military readiness

The army's numbers are a state secret. A good friend who is an officer has had only a small handful on courtmartial for saying "I'm not showing up." And the vast majority will be there and even if a little rusty, they'll be fine "against anything Iran can throw at us."

2. Q asked but ... did not catch

A - people only change when the pain is great enough. The Haredi community is too big to continue to act as if it's tiny. They have a great education system. When Haredim leave their system and decide to go through college and go thru standardized testing - they do very poorly at math and english. BUT - they outclass all other Israelis in verbal skills. Because their system trains them to think, read, learn, debate, comprehend, memorize ... etc. So it's not that they are illiterate hunter gatherers.

The question is, how much poverty will they be willing to deal with and how much anger will they have toward other segments of Israelis until they realize they need to start teaching math and to start making a decision to change and join the larger society. "It's coming."" The parts of Haredi society that have the most kids are the parts that don't work. That's 50% even though the proportion who believe deeply in not working has shrunk. "Lots of Yeshiva boys are going to work and there are lots more options to work.""

A sort of "state of the Union" address by one of the most influential Haredi rabbis happened on Simchat Torah last year (did not catch the name). The rabbi said: "If you are not studying full-time, then you must go to work." It created quite a stir. But in fact the rabbi did not say he wanted to lead on this issue - he was leading from behind. Thousands of Yeshiva boys have started going to work. So change is already afoot!

Keep in mind, TV was blocked from Haredi households for decades. This isolated them from other aspects of Israeli society. They tried to do the same with the Internet but it has now "clearly failed." They use the Internet for lots of reasons like the rest of us. The cell phones were "kosherized" for a long time but now it's getting impossible because people needed so many exceptions for websites they need to use.

And it has created a change. 10 years ago, a lot of Haredis were basically anti-Zionist. Now they are Zionist but yes also far-right. Long story short, things are changing. They are also sensitive to the anger in other parts of society, so they are adjusting on their own.

[WSJ article on rising power of ultra-orthodox jews - ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-ultra-orthodox-haredim-military-service-supreme-court-of-ultra-orthodox-jews-shakes-israels-sense-of-identity-b3155e01)

* Followup question ... The recent news story about a Haredi family insulting female soldiers on the train .. any comments?

HRG: I don't think that reflects their society ... and it went viral, it was universally panned by people who saw the video in that community. Haredim don't hate or mock soldiers and women. Yes, there are real problems. Things need to change. But it's not representative of their society.

3. Is a war required for a leader to elevate Isarel's next leader?

HRG: Nasrallah gleefully said recently "we are witnessing the collapse of Israeli society" ... and a friend said to me, "I wish they would attack - it would bring us back together." Of course, maybe not a great idea. In any case, have we become "so powerful and safe" that we don't fear the danger that we tearing each other apart? That's not a good situation regardless. "We are not a country with great leadership, we are a country of great people." That's been true for a long time, not just a comment on Netanyahu.

4. Do we need two chambers in the Knesset? Is this something most people agree on?

It has been a political issue for decades. Likud wanted it when it was in the minority because it was much smaller than the left. The irony is the foot is now on the other foot. The people who say we need a constitution, a second chamber, etc. are now on the left. It's "a very rich and detailed debate." If and when we finally start a constitutional convention process, there will be a lot of discussion about it. But we are not there yet. We are a country with one of the highest number of lawyers in the world per capita - another irony there.

5. Zohreh Mizachi's question - what is the influence of the American think tanks that we hear a lot about?

My reading is: yes, it is "profound" but it's "the Israelis' own fault." There is a tremendous idea of American Jewish money, influence flowing into Israel. Both sides are upset about the others' flow. E.g., NIF is funded by the left outside Israel. But now the same is true on the right - conservative think tanks and NGOs are active and a lot of the debate is happening within them. There is even a think tank that is "openly advocating war in Gaza" - that's "not a good idea." I don't trust anyone in Philadelphia to tell us that. ([This looks like the cite to that](https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/us-think-tank-to-israel-stop-mowing-the-lawn-in-gaza/))

Anyway, a vast amount of foreign money is entering but still it's the Israelis' fault if their influence is so wide. It's due in part to lazy MKs. Usually MKs are appointed by leaders who don't want to be challenged - they want votes in support of their position. So far too often, the back list of MKs are not well qualified, caring or even interested in getting things done. They don't come from a background that gives them an agenda, like a particular population or geographic area with a need for better services. And these think tanks show up and give them an agenda that is whollly made. That is a major source of the problem. "I don't mind listening to Americans. I went to HS in Wisconsin. But yes, I'm worried about this."

6. Segregation of women on trains ... is this religious right wing behavior growing - ?

There is "more than a streak" of Israel that is deeply conservative. We are after all a middle Eastern country. 70% of Israeli society come from places other than Europe, whether it's Mizrachi or Sephardic. And even those coming from Europe are also coming with conservative views. "We are not American Jews with slightly darker tans." It's amazing we even have Democracy. It's not as though most people living in Israel grew up with democratic traditions. And we still hav never written a constitution.

Some would argue "Middle Eastern conservatism is our superpower." We are liberal enough to have gay pride parades and pricey restaurants open on Shabbat but we are conservative enough to have tight-knit families and social cohesion. It has always been there.

But here's another question - why did the NYT care so much about what happened to a woman on a train in Israel? Because it feeds their narrative. But is it true that it's a societal problem? It's hard to say - "I think we should poll it ... I woudn't be that surprised if it's true but it's unclear."

*Thanks for attending by David Siegel, closing remarks, and please continue supporting Friends of ELNET.*

*/end of webinar*