Model Thinking Bibliography

# Model Thinking Bibliography ###### tags: `Model Thinking` `Courses` ## The Model Thinker ![](https://i.imgur.com/9YbC5Go.png =250x) Title : The Model Thinker Title sort : Model Thinker, The Author(s) : Scott E. Page [Page, Scott E.] Publisher : Basic Books Languages : eng Timestamp : 2020-05-25T03:25:48+00:00 Published : 2018-11-27T00:00:00+00:00 Comments : How anyone can become a data ninja From the stock market to genomics laboratories, census figures to marketing email blasts, we are awash with data. But as anyone who has ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren't enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. In The Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical, statistical, and computational models—from linear regression to random walks and far beyond—that can turn anyone into a genius. At the core of the book is Page's "many-model paradigm," which shows the reader how to apply multiple models to organize the data, leading to wiser choices, more accurate predictions, and more robust designs. The Model Thinker provides a toolkit for business people, students, scientists, pollsters, and bloggers to make them better, clearer thinkers, able to leverage data and information to their advantage. ## Diversity and Complexity ![](https://i.imgur.com/0aHmjp3.png =250x) Title : Diversity and Complexity Title sort : Diversity and Complexity Author(s) : Scott Page [Page, Scott] Publisher : Princeton University Press Languages : eng Rating : 4 Timestamp : 2020-05-30T18:48:29.336982+00:00 Published : 2010-11-28T06:00:00+00:00 Identifiers : isbn:9780691137674, amazon:0691137676, mobi-asin:B0058E3K6E Comments : <div> This book provides an introduction to the role of diversity in complex adaptive systems. A complex system--such as an economy or a tropical ecosystem--consists of interacting adaptive entities that produce dynamic patterns and structures. Diversity plays a different role in a complex system than it does in an equilibrium system, where it often merely produces variation around the mean for performance measures. In complex adaptive systems, diversity makes fundamental contributions to system performance. Scott Page gives a concise primer on how diversity happens, how it is maintained, and how it affects complex systems. He explains how diversity underpins system level robustness, allowing for multiple responses to external shocks and internal adaptations; how it provides the seeds for large events by creating outliers that fuel tipping points; and how it drives novelty and innovation. Page looks at the different kinds of diversity--variations within and across types, and distinct community compositions and interaction structures--and covers the evolution of diversity within complex systems and the factors that determine the amount of maintained diversity within a system. <ul><li>Provides a concise and accessible introduction </li> <li>Shows how diversity underpins robustness and fuels tipping points </li> <li>Covers all types of diversity</li> <li>The essential primer on diversity in complex adaptive systems</li></ul> **</div> Subject : Complexity ## Complex Adaptive Systems ![](https://i.imgur.com/bfwUgNv.jpg =250x) Title : Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life Title sort : Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life Author(s) : Miller, John H. & Page, Scott E. [Miller, John H. & Page, Scott E.] Publisher : Princeton University Press Languages : eng Rating : 4 Timestamp : 2020-05-19T17:12:45+00:00 Published : 2007-03-25T00:00:00+00:00 Identifiers : isbn:9780691127026, amazon:0691127026 Comments : This book provides the first clear, comprehensive, and accessible account of complex adaptive social systems, by two of the field's leading authorities. Such systems--whether political parties, stock markets, or ant colonies--present some of the most intriguing theoretical and practical challenges confronting the social sciences. Engagingly written, and balancing technical detail with intuitive explanations, Complex Adaptive Systems focuses on the key tools and ideas that have emerged in the field since the mid-1990s, as well as the techniques needed to investigate such systems. It provides a detailed introduction to concepts such as emergence, self-organized criticality, automata, networks, diversity, adaptation, and feedback. It also demonstrates how complex adaptive systems can be explored using methods ranging from mathematics to computational models of adaptive agents. John Miller and Scott Page show how to combine ideas from economics, political science, biology, physics, and computer science to illuminate topics in organization, adaptation, decentralization, and robustness. They also demonstrate how the usual extremes used in modeling can be fruitfully transcended. ** Subject : Complexity ## Understanding Complexity ![](https://i.imgur.com/aJ1YPw0.png =250x) Title : Understanding Complexity - the Great Courses - Lecture Transcript and Course Guidebook Title sort : Understanding Complexity - the Great Courses - Lecture Transcript and Course Guidebook Author(s) : Scott E. Page [Page, Scott E.] Publisher : The Teaching Company Languages : eng Rating : 3 Timestamp : 2020-05-19T17:05:44+00:00 Published : 2012-02-23T00:25:12+00:00 Identifiers : isbn:9781598035605, amazon:1598035606 Comments : Educational: The Great Courses- Lecture Transcript and Course Guidebook. ** Subject : Complexity ## Expert Political Judgment ![](https://i.imgur.com/sQVQJIA.png =250x) Title : Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Title sort : Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Author(s) : Philip E. Tetlock [Tetlock, Philip E.] Publisher : Princeton University Press Languages : eng Rating : 4 Timestamp : 2020-05-30T19:29:50.188306+00:00 Published : 2006-08-20T00:00:00+00:00 Identifiers : isbn:9780691128719, amazon:0691128715 Comments : The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. ** ## Connected ![](https://i.imgur.com/dm7EVtc.png =250x) <a id="Connected"></a> Title : Connected: The Amazing Power of Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives Title sort : Connected: The Amazing Power of Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives Author(s) : Nicholas A. Christakis [Christakis, Nicholas A.] Publisher : HarperCollins Publishers Languages : eng Rating : 4 Timestamp : 2019-12-18T17:43:39+00:00 Published : 2011-01-02T06:00:00+00:00 Identifiers : amazon:0007303602, isbn:9780007303601 Comments : <div> Is happiness catching? Are your friends making you fat? Can your sibling make you smart? Is wealth contagious? Where is true love found? Does free will exist? Based on exciting discoveries in mathematics, genetics, psychology and sociology, 'Connected' is an innovative and fascinating exploration of how social networks operate. Think it's all about who you know? It is. But not the way you think. Turns out your colleague's husband's sister can make you fat, even if you don't know her. And a happy friend is more relevant to your happiness than a bigger income. Our connections -- our friends, their friends, and even their friends' friends -- have an astonishing power to influence everything from what we eat to who we sleep with. And we, in turn, influence others. Our actions can change the behaviours, the beliefs, and even the basic health of people we've never met. In this brilliantly original and effortlessly engaging exploration of how much we truly influence one another. Pre-eminent social scientists Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler explain why obesity is contagious, why the rich get richer, even how we find and choose our partners. Intriguing and entertaining, with revelatory implications for everything from our notion of the individual to ideas about public health initiatives, 'Connected' will change the way you think about every aspect of your life, and how you live it. **</div> ## The Big Sort ![](https://i.imgur.com/8iowKx8.png =250x) Title : The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded American Is Tearing Us Apart Title sort : Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded American Is Tearing Us Apart, The Author(s) : Bill Bishop [Bishop, Bill] Publisher : Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Tags : Political Science, Political Process, Campaigns & Elections Languages : eng Timestamp : 2020-06-15T02:29:47.229383+00:00 Published : 2009-05-11T02:29:55.648005+00:00 Identifiers : urn:urn:uuid:403F2CD1-929A-1014-B350-F9F819A6AF6A, isbn:9780547525198, google:VAqNKMfgdk4C Comments : In 2004, journalist Bill Bishop coined the term "the big sort." Armed with startling new demographic data, he made national news in a series of articles showing how Americans have been sorting themselves into alarmingly homogeneous communities—not by region or by state, but by city and even neighborhood. Over the past three decades, we have been choosing the neighborhood (and church and news show) compatible with our lifestyle and beliefs. The result is a country that has become so polarized, so ideologically inbred that people don't know and can't understand those who live a few miles away. How this came to be, and its dire implications for our country, is the subject of this ground-breaking work. In The Big Sort, Bishop has taken his analysis to a new level. He begins with stories about how we live today and then draws on history, economics and our changing political landscape to create one of the most compelling big-picture accounts of America in recent memory. ## The Difference ![](https://i.imgur.com/4JaeHso.png =250x) Title : The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies - New Edition Title sort : Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies - New Edition, The Author(s) : Scott Page [Page, Scott] Publisher : Princeton University Press Languages : eng Rating : 4 Timestamp : 2020-06-16T17:01:29.166638+00:00 Published : 2008-08-30T05:00:00+00:00 Identifiers : isbn:9780691138541, amazon:0691138540 Comments : <div> In this landmark book, Scott Page redefines the way we understand ourselves in relation to one another. The Difference is about how we think in groups--and how our collective wisdom exceeds the sum of its parts. Why can teams of people find better solutions than brilliant individuals working alone? And why are the best group decisions and predictions those that draw upon the very qualities that make each of us unique? The answers lie in diversity--not what we look like outside, but what we look like within, our distinct tools and abilities. The Difference reveals that progress and innovation may depend less on lone thinkers with enormous IQs than on diverse people working together and capitalizing on their individuality. Page shows how groups that display a range of perspectives outperform groups of like-minded experts. Diversity yields superior outcomes, and Page proves it using his own cutting-edge research. Moving beyond the politics that cloud standard debates about diversity, he explains why difference beats out homogeneity, whether you're talking about citizens in a democracy or scientists in the laboratory. He examines practical ways to apply diversity's logic to a host of problems, and along the way offers fascinating and surprising examples, from the redesign of the Chicago "El" to the truth about where we store our ketchup. Page changes the way we understand diversity--how to harness its untapped potential, how to understand and avoid its traps, and how we can leverage our differences for the benefit of all. **</div> {%hackmd G-uuuRi2RyKS_IyjBJS3Kw %}