---
# System prepended metadata

title: Heuristic Debug Rev 5
tags: [Debug]

---

---
tags: Debug
---

# Heuristic Debug Rev 5


### Description
#### Heuristic analysis
<!-- Optimal mobility restriction = P(infectious) -->
P(infectious | evidence) = P(evidence | infectious) P(infectious) / P(evidence)

**Behaviour of bdt** = individual +test results in quarantine of individual with +test + quarantine of contacts w/in last 14 days + quarantine households

**Behaviour of heuristic** = behaviour of bdt + individual symptoms signal + risk messages caused by test + risk messages caused by symptoms + risk messages about risk

For **individual symptoms signal** to be effective, we want to have high p(covid | symptom), and many infections happening between symptom onset and test+ time. 

**risk messages about symptoms**
P(infection | symptom messages) = P(infection) prod_clue P(symptom message | infection) / normalization over infection vs not-infection

- \# people exposed to people with symptoms
- how informative are symptoms
- mismatch time / generation time

**risk messages about risk**


TODO: 
- individual symptoms signal
	- check p(covid | symptom)
	- check % infections happening between symptom onset and test+ time
- risk messages about symptoms
	- 

### Pareto Adoption
![](https://i.imgur.com/wf8V7zR.png)

### Jelly Beans
![](https://i.imgur.com/UrtFDsR.png)
![](https://i.imgur.com/eLFLshM.png)
![](https://i.imgur.com/qWXIzin.png)

### Presymptomatic

![](https://i.imgur.com/YK95b47.png)
![](https://i.imgur.com/9n1e8l8.png)
![](https://i.imgur.com/RflABXa.png)
![](https://i.imgur.com/OPfLvQF.png)
