---
tags: Debug
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# Heuristic Debug Rev 5

### Description
#### Heuristic analysis
<!-- Optimal mobility restriction = P(infectious) -->
P(infectious | evidence) = P(evidence | infectious) P(infectious) / P(evidence)

**Behaviour of bdt** = individual +test results in quarantine of individual with +test + quarantine of contacts w/in last 14 days + quarantine households

**Behaviour of heuristic** = behaviour of bdt + individual symptoms signal + risk messages caused by test + risk messages caused by symptoms + risk messages about risk

For **individual symptoms signal** to be effective, we want to have high p(covid | symptom), and many infections happening between symptom onset and test+ time.

**risk messages about symptoms**
P(infection | symptom messages) = P(infection) prod_clue P(symptom message | infection) / normalization over infection vs not-infection

- \# people exposed to people with symptoms
- how informative are symptoms
- mismatch time / generation time

**risk messages about risk**

TODO:
- individual symptoms signal
- check p(covid | symptom)
- check % infections happening between symptom onset and test+ time
- risk messages about symptoms
-

### Pareto Adoption

### Jelly Beans

### Presymptomatic