# 病毒起源十大假資訊
- 來源：[Alina Chan推特](https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1394327675884511239)
- 日期：2021-5-18
> Today, a thread debunking (unintentional) misinformation on the origins of covid-19 / SARS-CoV-2 virus. Starting with the top 10 easily fact-checked ideas or statements that are not true, although a shocking number of scientists still think these are true.
今天來開個串，揭穿關於 covid-19 / SARS-CoV-2 病毒起源（無意中造成的）假訊息。將列舉前十大
最容易被拆穿的誤解，即便誤信的科學家仍是出乎意料地多。
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# 四級實驗室？
> **FALSE** - Before COVID, SARS research was done in a BSL4 lab at the WIV.
Actually, SARS research, even the (humanized) animal infection experiments were conducted at BSL2/3. See @ScienceMagazine [interview of the PI at the Wuhan Institute of Virology](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/trump-owes-us-apology-chinese-scientist-center-covid-19-origin-theories-speaks-out)
**假訊息** - 在 COVID 之前，SARS 研究是在武漢病毒研究所(WIV)的生物安全第四級實驗室(BSL4)進行的。
正解 - 實際上，SARS研究，甚至（人性化的）動物感染實驗都是在生物安全第二級或三級實驗室進行的。參見[《科學》雜誌對武漢病毒研究所主任的採訪](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/trump-owes-us-apology-chinese-scientist-center-covid-19-origin-theories-speaks-out)。
- Science | 2020-7-24 | Jon Cohen
- [Trump ‘owes us an apology.’ Chinese scientist at the center of COVID-19 origin theories speaks out](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/trump-owes-us-apology-chinese-scientist-center-covid-19-origin-theories-speaks-out)
- 其解答藏在文末[PDF附件的最後一段](https://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/Shi%20Zhengli%20Q%26A.pdf)
- "The coronavirus research in our laboratory is conducted in BSL-2 or BSL-3
laboratories." (新冠病毒相關研究是在生物安全第二級或三級實驗室進行)
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# 實驗室從來就沒有意外？
> **FALSE** - There is no precedent of SARS viruses escaping from a laboratory.
Actually, SARS virus escaped from labs at least 4 times in 3 countries within a year. One of the labs was a BSL4 lab. Investigators said that SARS virus could have escaped 4 times from a Beijing lab.
**假訊息** - 沒有SARS病毒從實驗室逃逸的先例。
正解 - 事實上，SARS病毒曾在一年內至少從3個國家的實驗室逃脫4次。**其中一個還是生物安全四級實驗室**。調查人員說，SARS病毒可能從北京的某個實驗室逃脫了4次。
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# 市場動物傳人？
> **UNCLEAR** - SARS-CoV-2 spilled from animal to human at a Wuhan market.
No animal samples from markets were (+) for SARS2. China-WHO team said they don't know the role of the Huanan market in origins of COVID-19.
Current evidence is consistent with both natural and lab origins.
**尚未證實** - SARS-CoV-2 是從武漢市場的動物傳染給人類。
正解 - **沒有來自市場的動物驗出SARS2陽性**。 中國與世衛組織團隊表示，他們不知道華南市場與COVID-19的起源是否有關連。目前的證據並不能推翻自然溢出或實驗室洩漏理論。
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# SARS病毒本來就在武漢？
> **FALSE** - Wuhan is a place where SARS transmits from animals into humans frequently. That's why the Wuhan Institute of Virology was built there.
Actually, Wuhan is ~1000km away from SARS spillover zones. Its human population was even used as a negative (no SARS) control group.
**假訊息** - 在武漢，經常發生SARS病毒透過動物傳給人類的事件。這也是為何武漢病毒研究所會建在這個地方。
正解 - 實際上，武漢距離SARS自然溢出事件發生的地點，相距超過1000公里。武漢的人口甚至被當作陰性（未感染SARS）的對照組。
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# 湖北的蝙蝠還沒被研究過？
> **FALSE** - Bat viruses in Wuhan city & Hubei Province have not been studied over the years. We don't know if there are SARS2-like viruses there.
Actually, 1000s of bats have been sampled by different groups over the years in Hubei. We just don't have access to the full data.
**假訊息** - 多年來，武漢市和湖北省的蝙蝠帶原病毒並沒有被研究過。我們不知道那裡是否有類似SARS2的病毒。
正解 - 實際上，多年來，湖北省內已有多個團隊，對數千隻蝙蝠進行了採樣。我們只是無法檢閱完整數據。
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# 同種蝙蝠會帶原一樣的病毒？
> **FALSE** - Because the same species of bats live in South China and also Hubei, SARS2-like viruses are also in bats in Hubei.
Actually, the WIV published a paper before COVID-19 saying that it is mainly geographical barriers, not host species, that separate virus lineages.
**假訊息** - 因為有數種蝙蝠同時分布在華南和湖北，所以在湖北的蝙蝠中也有類似SARS2的病毒。
正解 - 實際上，武漢病毒研究所在COVID-19之前曾發表一篇論文，稱**造成病毒分支的主要原因是地理阻隔，而不是宿主物種**。
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# 科學家可以看出人為痕跡？
> **FALSE** - If SARS-CoV-2 was engineered or manipulated in the lab, scientists can tell.
Correction:
Actually, scientists can detect only specific ways of modifying pathogens. We cannot rule out whether SARS-CoV-2 has been cultured, passaged or genetically modified.
**假訊息** - 如果 SARS-CoV-2 曾在實驗室中被設計或操縱，科學家們可以判斷出來。
正解 - 實際上，科學家只能檢測到改變病原體的特定方法。 我們不能排除 SARS-CoV-2 是否經過培養、傳代或基因改造。
- Future Human | 2020-8-5 | Sarah Scoles
- [How Do We Know If a Virus Is Bioengineered?](https://futurehuman.medium.com/how-do-we-know-if-a-virus-is-bioengineered-541ff6f8a48f)
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# 源於實驗室的病毒都會很不自然？
> If SARS-CoV-2 leaked from a lab, it would look unnatural.
Actually, many of the viruses that have escaped from labs are viruses collected from animals or humans outside of the lab. Even if slightly modified or manipulated, they look like viruses that can be found in nature.
**不盡然** - 如果 SARS-CoV-2 從實驗室洩漏，它看起來會很不自然。
正解 - 其實，很多從實驗室逃逸出來的病毒，原本都採自實驗室外的動物或人類。即使稍做修改或操縱，它們看起也和自然界的病毒很相似。
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# 病毒序列一直都是公開的？
> **FALSE** - All of the WIV's virus sequences are publicly available.
Actually, there's a missing WIV database of more than 22,000 pathogen samples that became inaccessible since Sep 2019, weeks before COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan.
**假訊息** - 武漢病毒研究所的所有病毒序列都是公開的。
正解 - 實際上，自 2019 年 9 月（即 COVID-19 出現在武漢的幾週前）以來，武漢病毒研究所網站上某個包含 22,000 多個病原體樣本的數據庫，已不再對外公開。
- Research Gate | 2021 Feb | Billy Bostickson, Gilles Demaneuf
- [An investigation into the WIV databases that were taken offline](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349073738_An_investigation_into_the_WIV_databases_that_were_taken_offline)
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# WIV很大方分享資訊？
> **FALSE** - The WIV has shared all of their sequences (data and sample histories) closely related to SARS-CoV-2 in a timely and accurate manner.
Actually, when they shared the most closely related virus to SARS2, they did not mention its link to severe respiratory cases. They also did not disclose that the virus sample had been genome sequenced in 2018 or that they had at least 8 other SARS2-like virus samples collected between 2012-2015 & sequenced. Those sequences are still not publicly available more than a year after the pandemic began.
**假訊息** - 武漢病毒研究所及時且準確地分享了與 SARS-CoV-2 最近似的所有病毒序列（包含數據和樣本歷史）。
正解 - 實際上，當他們分享與 SARS2 最密切相關的病毒(RaTG13)時，他們並沒有提到它與嚴重呼吸道病例的聯繫。他們也沒有透露病毒樣本已於 2018 年進行基因組測序，或者他們在 2012-2015 年期間收集並測序了至少 8 個其他類 SARS2 病毒樣本。
在大流行開始一年多後，這些序列至今仍被未公開。
[譯註]
RaTG13的病毒全序列已在2020年11月公開，所以這邊提到未公開的序列，可能是指其他8個類SARS2病毒。
- Nature | 2020-2-3 | 石正麗等人
- [A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin](https://web.archive.org/web/20200203131759/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7)
- 此為最初上傳的版本，關於RaTG13的背景交代並不清楚，其完整序列直至11月才被公開。
- NCBI | 2020-11-24 | 石正麗等人
- [Bat coronavirus RaTG13, complete genome](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN996532)
- 武漢病毒研究所在2012年8月至2013年7月至同一地點採集樣本，其論文發表於2016
- NIH | 2016-2-18 | 石正麗等人
- [Coexistence of multiple coronaviruses in several bat colonies in an abandoned mineshaft](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26920708/)
- 數名學者與網路人士追查RaTG13病毒背景的過程，可參考下文
- The Week | 2021-6-13 | Monali Rahalkar, Rahul Bahulikar
- [How an Indian scientist couple worked to trace origin, course of COVID-19](https://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/2021/06/03/how-an-indian-scientist-couple-worked-to-trace-origin-course-of-covid-19.html)
- 兩名學者僅透過部份序列比對(RNA複製酶，RdRp，RNA-dependent RNA polymerase)，確定RaTG13即為多年前的採樣Ra4991。
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# 早該有人出來爆料？
> **Bonus**: If SARS2 came from a lab, someone would've already spilled the beans. This secret is too hot to handle.
Correction:
Actually, there's no obvious whistleblower channel. There's also no international investigation. How would someone safely communicate evidence on the origins in China?
**加碼補充**：如果 SARS2 來自實驗室，那麼早就有人把消息爆出來了，這麼重大的秘密不可能瞞得住。
正解 - 實際上，至今仍沒有明顯的舉報管道，也沒有國際合作調查，人們如何安全地舉報、有關起源可能來自於中國的證據？
[譯註]
這邊的「國際調查」可能是沒把2021年初的WHO溯源調查隊算進去。
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