# The hidden risks in Taiwan’s boom
A weak-currency policy is punishing consumers and storing up financial risk

臺灣繁榮背後的隱憂
低幣值政策既損害消費者，也在為金融體系埋下風險。

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本文為摘錄自 The Economist 2025-11-15 的 Cover Story 。全文皆為轉載，中文翻譯來自另一人使用 ChatGPT 5.1 完成的翻譯，本人僅做繁簡轉換。
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___Illustration: The Economist/Ricardo Rey___

TAIWAN IS ENVIED for its exporting prowess: it is home to all of the world’s cutting-edge chipmaking. Just as extraordinary, but much less appreciated, is its towering current-account surplus, the result not just of a trade boom but of a long-undervalued currency. This aided Taiwan’s export-led rise, but it has long outlived its purpose. While manufacturers have been coddled, ordinary Taiwanese consumers have been deprived of the fruits of growth, and financial risks are building up. It is time for Taiwan to loosen its grip on its currency.

> 臺灣因出口實力而備受羨慕：它掌握了全球所有最先進的晶片製造能力。同樣驚人卻不被廣泛關注的，是臺灣龐大的經常項目順差。這不僅來自貿易繁榮，也來自長期被低估的幣值。這樣的匯率政策曾助力臺灣的出口導向發展，但如今已經過時。製造商持續受惠，而一般臺灣消費者卻無法享受經濟成長的果實，金融風險也不斷累積。臺灣是時候放鬆對匯率的控制了。

Taiwan’s vast surpluses have been years in the making. For decades its central bank, known as the CBC, has kept the currency undervalued, giving manufacturing exporters a competitive boost. According to the GDP-adjusted Big Mac index, our measure of how far exchange rates depart from their underlying values, the Taiwan dollar is 55% undervalued against the American dollar—the most in the world.

> 臺灣龐大的順差已經形成多年。數十年來，臺灣央行（CBC）一直讓幣值維持偏低，使製造業出口商獲得競爭優勢。根據《經濟學人》“巨無霸指數”（以 GDP 調整，衡量匯率相對於其基本價值的偏離程度），新臺幣兌美元被低估了 55%——是全球最高的。

As a consequence, in this century Taiwan has run the world’s biggest current-account surplus as a share of output, once entrepots and petrostates are excluded. And lately, thanks to the artificial-intelligence boom, Taiwan’s imbalances have gone into overdrive. In October its goods-trade surplus hit a record high of 31% of GDP in annualised terms—a quadrupling since the pandemic. According to the latest data for this year, Taiwan’s current-account surplus has reached 16% of GDP. By comparison, China, the archetypal surplus economy, is running a current-account surplus of just 3%.

> 因此，在排除轉口港與產油國後，本世紀以來，臺灣一直擁有全球最大的經常賬戶順差（佔 GDP 比例）。近年來，隨著人工智慧熱潮的來臨，臺灣的失衡進一步加劇。10 月份，臺灣的貨品貿易順差按年化計算達到 GDP 的 31%，創下紀錄，是疫情以來的四倍。根據今年最新數據，臺灣的經常項目順差已達 GDP 的 16%。相比之下，典型的順差大國中國，順差僅為 3%。

The problem with all this is that the cheap currency has become a costly and dangerous anachronism. For a start, it no longer delivers the benefits it once did. Taiwan is no longer an industrialising economy; its annual GDP per person now exceeds that of Japan. Its stock of foreign reserves, at $600bn, is large enough to cushion the impact of a Chinese blockade or a financial crisis. And the best of Taiwan’s chip- and computer-makers, which are responsible for three-quarters of total exports and nearly half of nominal GDP, can shrug off a stronger currency. A 20% appreciation in the Taiwan dollar would knock perhaps eight percentage points off the operating margins of TSMC, the world’s leading chipmaker—still leaving them plumper than Alphabet’s or Apple’s.

> 問題在於，這項“便宜貨幣政策”如今已成為代價高昂且危險的時代遺物。首先，它已不再帶來過去的好處。臺灣早已不是工業化中的國家；其人均 GDP 已超過日本。臺灣外匯存底達 6000 億美元，足以緩衝中國封鎖或金融危機的衝擊。而臺灣最頂尖的晶片與電腦製造商——佔總出口 3/4、名目 GDP 的近一半——完全有能力承受更強勢的貨幣。即便新臺幣升值 20%，也僅會讓全球領先的晶片大廠臺積電的營業利潤率下降約 8 個百分點——仍比 Alphabet 或 Apple 更豐厚。

At the same time, the costs and distortions of having an undervalued currency are mounting. First, it is a tax on consumers. In an economy that depends on imports for food, fuel and goods, the cheap currency has shifted purchasing power from ordinary households to exporters. The result has been that even by export-economy standards, Taiwan saves too much and consumes too little·. Since 1998 private consumption as a share of output has tumbled by 20 percentage points. A policy that was meant to help Taiwan get rich is now depriving ordinary Taiwanese.

> 與此同時，低估幣值所帶來的成本與扭曲正不斷增加。第一，這相當於對消費者課稅。臺灣高度依賴進口食物、燃料與商品，低幣值將購買力從一般家庭轉移到出口商身上。因此，即便以出口型經濟標準來看，臺灣的儲蓄過高、消費過低。自 1998 年以來，私人消費佔 GDP 的比重下降了 20 個百分點。一項原本幫助臺灣致富的政策，如今正在傷害臺灣人民。

Another distortion is that the cheap currency is inflating property prices. Printing currency to buy foreign exchange has flooded Taiwan’s financial system with liquidity and pushed down interest rates. That combination lies behind a quadrupling of house prices since 1998. And the weak-currency policy has seeded risk deep in the heart of Taiwan’s financial system—a third distortion. To recycle the proceeds of its surpluses Taiwan has leant on its life-insurance industry, which has poured nearly $1trn of households’ savings largely into American Treasuries. But that has created a giant currency mismatch, because Taiwan-dollar liabilities are being funded with American-dollar assets. An abrupt move in either currency could wipe out the insurers, threatening a financial crisis.

> 另一項扭曲是房價。為了維持低幣值而印鈔買入外匯，使臺灣金融體系流動性過剩，並壓低利率。這種組合推動房價自 1998 年以來上漲 4 倍。而低幣值政策也在臺灣金融體系深處埋下巨大的風險——第三項扭曲。為了消化龐大順差，臺灣極度依賴壽險業，而後者將近 1 兆美元 的家庭儲蓄大量投入美國公債等美元資產。這造成巨大的貨幣錯配：以新臺幣計價的負債，卻用美元資產支撐。只要匯率劇烈變動，就可能讓壽險業瞬間破產，引發金融危機。

Why, then, has the policy persisted? One reason is the export lobby. Taiwan’s chipmakers could withstand a stronger currency, but existing policy has propped up a cohort of manufacturers that subsist on thin margins and would be severely hurt by an appreciation. Such firms make up perhaps 70% of manufacturing employment. Another reason is the CBC’s unusual power. Printing Taiwan dollars to hoover up foreign-currency assets has minted handsome profits, which are remitted to the government and have become a big source of revenue. Central-bank transfers make up 6% of total government receipts, compared with a rich-world average of 0.4%. This bolsters the CBC’s political authority, allowing its powerful governor to cow critics into submission (something the CBC denies).

> 那麼，為什麼這種政策一直延續？其一是出口業者的壓力。雖然頂級晶片製造商足以承受升值，但既有政策扶植了一群靠微薄利潤生存的製造商，它們將因升值受到嚴重打擊。這類企業可能佔製造業就業的 70%。第二個原因是央行的特殊權力。透過印新臺幣購買外匯資產，央行獲得可觀獲利，這些利潤被匯回政府，成為重要財政來源。央行貢獻佔政府收入的 6%，遠高於先進國家平均的 0.4%。這強化了央行的政治影響力，使其強勢的總裁得以壓制批評（央行否認此說法）。

The situation is becoming increasingly precarious. One risk is that further depreciation in the American dollar destabilises Taiwan’s life insurers, which have become too big to fail. A second danger is that American trade-surplus hawks take flight again, using tariffs and their security leverage to force Taiwan to revalue. That could happen at any time: unlike South Korea, Japan or China, Taiwan has yet to clinch a trade deal with Donald Trump. Fears of such a clash after “Liberation Day” were enough to spark an abrupt 9% appreciation of the currency against the greenback in May.

> 情勢正變得越來越危險。其一風險是美元若進一步貶值，可能動搖“太大而不能倒”的壽險業。其二風險是美國貿易鷹派再次出動，以關稅或安全議題向臺灣施壓要求升值。這隨時可能發生：與韓國、日本、中國不同，臺灣至今尚未與特朗普達成貿易協議。僅僅是擔心“解放日”（美國政權交接日）後可能出現的衝突，就在 5 月引發新臺幣兌美元 9% 的急升。

That is why Taiwan must unpick its outdated economic model—and build a better one. The CBC should gradually loosen its grip on the currency. Inevitably, the transition will be fraught with political and financial risks. Manufacturers kept on life-support by Taiwan’s export subsidy will have to scale back or shut down. Too rapid an appreciation could blow up the life-insurance industry. But these risks can be managed.

> 因此，臺灣必須拆解其過時的經濟模式，建立更好的新模式。央行應逐步放鬆對匯率的掌控。轉型必然伴隨政治與金融風險。靠低估匯率補貼才能存活的製造商將不得不縮編或關閉。若升值過快，可能引爆壽險業。但這些風險是可控的。

Taiwan’s government, with gross debt of just 23% of GDP, has room to help retrain laid-off workers. Insurers will suffer losses, but can manage the transition if they are given time. The CBC also has a crucial advantage: gently strengthening a currency is easier than doing the opposite, as Javier Milei is discovering in Argentina. The CBC can always print Taiwan dollars to fend off speculators pre-empting a stronger currency.

> 臺灣政府債務僅佔 GDP 的 23%，有能力協助裁員工人再培訓。壽險業可能面臨損失，但若給予時間，也能度過轉型期。央行也擁有關鍵優勢：溫和升值比壓低匯率容易得多——阿根廷的米萊正經歷相反的難題。央行隨時都能印新臺幣對抗提前押注升值的投機者。

The key is for the CBC to establish a long-term path for the currency, as Singapore does. China, too, has managed a modest yuan appreciation in recent decades. And in return, ordinary Taiwanese will at last be able to enjoy more of the fruits of their country’s extraordinary export miracle.

> 關鍵在於央行應像新加坡一樣，制定長期匯率路徑。中國也在過去幾十年維持了溫和的人民幣升值。作為回報，臺灣民眾終於能享受其國家出口奇蹟帶來的更多成果。