# Thesis: Photovoltaic Solar
#investment thesis#
#Thesis: Electricity marginal cost will approach zero#

## Hypothesis
Solar PV will become the dominant form of electricity generation due to lower cost driven by its fundamental advantages (its fuel, the sun, is free, it is manufacturable, and has low operating costs). Over the long term the marginal cost of electricity from solar will approach its operational cost, which is the lowest on the market, driving out most other forms of generation.
### Outcomes and Implications
1. As the marginal cost of electricity approaches zero, everything that requires a power source will electrify. See [[Thesis: Marginal cost of electricity will approach zero]].
2. Companies that couldn't previously exist form around cheap electicity
3. Power companies start generating super profits
4. Resources boom for the dominant PV manufacturing materials
5. Companies owning choke points in the value chain for PV manufacturing start generating super profits
6. Some fossil fuel companies providing the base load get heavy subsidies
7.
#### Test conditions
Leading indicator: Operating costs of solar + storage over time. As input is free, the marginal cost is driven by the operating costs, the electricity price should follow the trend.

### Timing
1. *PV only competitive with subsidies* ::Done::
* PV Levelised Cost Of Energy (LCOE) < Traditional Power Plant’s LCOE
* PV will only be built with government subsidies.
* PV installations will be limited.
2. *PV competitive for new capacity* ::Done::
* PV LCOE < Traditional Power Plant’s LCOE
* PV will built to cover the middle of the day electricity where new capacity is needed.
* PV installations will increase because of genuine demand.
* New traditional power plant capacity will be slow down and eventually stop.
* Power plants with long life times and high capital costs will be first because it will become increasing hard to recoup the capital costs. New flexible supply will still be installed to cover time of use demand increases.
* *Test conditions*
* Leading indicator: Cost of capital for new energy projects (see [[/Cost of capital for energy projects]]).
* Lagging indicator: Track new installed energy generating capacity, should be no new commissioning of traditional plants (see [[/Traditional power plants]]).
3. *PV competitive against existing capacity* ::We are here::
* PV LCOE < Traditional Power Plant’s operating costs
* PV installation rate will increase due to greater demand.
* Existing traditional power plants will start to close down.
* During the day electricity from PV will flood the market, this reduces the capacity factor of traditional plants. Their high fixed costs will be spread over less output, further decreasing their competitiveness, and they will start to close as they become unprofitable. Flexible supply will be resistant as it can profit from time of use demand.
* *Test conditions*
* Leading indicator: Track operating costs of traditional sources vs Purchasing Price Agreements (PPAs) of renewables (see [[/Operating costs of existing Coal-fired power plants compared to new renewables]]).
* Lagging indicator: Track electricity generation source (see [[/OECD markets]]), less energy generation should come from traditional sources, replaced by renewable sources.
* Lagging indicator: Track retirements of traditional power plants, these should be increasing (see [[/Traditional power plants]]).
4. *PV plus battery storage competitive for daily demand spikes* ::There is some evidence this is starting::
* LCOE of PV + battery storage < operating costs of peaker plants
* PV and battery installations will increase.
* Flexible supply plants will start to shutdown.
* The regular daily peaks in electricity demand will be covered by batteries charged by PV that day or the day before.
* *Test conditions*
* Leading indicator: Track operating costs of traditional flexible supply vs Purchasing Price Agreements (PPAs) of renewables.
* Leading indicator: Track electricity generating source at different times of the day
* Leading indicator: Track storage installations and their size.
* Lagging indicator: Track electricity generation source (see [[/OECD markets]]), less energy generation should come from traditional sources, replaced by renewable sources.
* Lagging indicator: Track retirements of traditional power plants, these should be increasing (see [[/Traditional power plants]]).
5. *PV plus battery storage competitive for usage at all times of the day*
* LCOE of PV + battery storage < operating cost of traditional power plant
* PV and battery installations will only be limited by supply.
* All existing traditional plants will shutdown, timeline will depend on production capacity of PV and battery storage.
* *Test conditions*
* Leading indicator: Track operating costs of traditional sources vs LCOE of renewables plus storage
* Lagging indicator: Track electricity generation source (see [[/OECD markets]])

## Fundamental truths
### Competitive advantages
/Why does this have an advantage over what is currently on the market/
1. *Solar PV’s fuel is zero cost* - solar’s marginal input to produce energy, the sun, is free. Most other forms of energy pay for their marginal inputs.
2. *Solar PV is manufacturable* - learning rates are higher on manufacturable goods due to high repetition. Cost are also driven down due to economies of scale. (Wright’s law encapsulates this).
3. *Solar PV has no moving parts* - lower operating costs than competing technologies due reduced maintenance because moving parts eventually fail.

### Disadvantages
/What are the disadvantages compared to what is currently on the market/
1. *Intermittency* - power is only generated during part of the day, where as power is needed throughout the whole day. The peak PV power generation is offset from the peak in power usage.
2. *Non-controllable, variable solar radiation* - solar radiation differs at different latitudes, different times of the year, and different weather conditions. It can’t be turned up or down.
Solar irradiation per year for different parts of the world.
[^30]
::What is the difference in power between winter and summer? This is determine if over installation of PV is feasible:: In germany read somewhere it is 5 to 1, where as in Australia it was 3 to 1. Need to back this up with a source.
::Australia could become a cheap energy powerhouse?!::
#### Mitigations

An over installation of PV generation, and storage, will mitigate disadvantages 1, and 2. See [[Thesis: Battery Storage]]. ::Need to think about this more for long term storage::

## Macro tail winds
* *Climate change action* - Solar benefits from subsidies or taxes across many national governments due to regulation trying to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Electrification is also the cheapest and easiest method to reduce emissions in most sectors.
* *Reduction in battery cost* - Economies of scale have reduced Lithium Ion battery price over the last two decades because of demand from portable devices. This will continue to reduce over the next decades due to demand from electric vehicles. See [[Thesis: Battery Storage]]. At some point, this reduction in price will make PV + battery storage cost effective, mitigating PV’s disadvantages.
* *China subsiding solar production* - China has few energy resources inside its boarders, and as such is reliant on energy commodity imports. Solar is one solution to this problem, this may be one reason why they are supporting production. ::Highly speculative :)::

## Market
Solar PV is selling electricity. This is a commodity product therefore cost is the main differentiating factor.
Electricity market is traditionally highly regulated with traditional players and government intervention.
There are different market segments, mainly:
* Rooftop PV
* Utility-scale PV
### Electricity market
#### Current market size
The global electricity market is ~ USD 4T [^10].
The global electricity consumption is > 25,000 TWh[^21].
#### Potential market size
Below is a ‘Further Acceleration’ scenario by Mckinsey. It show significant growth in electricity demand due to electrification of different sectors and increased living standards. They predict the electricity market will grow 3 times in 3 decades. Take it for what it’s worth.

[^22]

#### Market composition
##### OECD markets
OECD markets have demand that is in steady state, this makes them price sensitive. Change in production over time is clearly seen in these markets. Over the last decade:
* Hydropower (limited sites) and Nuclear production (regulation and capital cost) have stayed constant
* Coal production has decreased, it is the highest cost base load supplier so is replaced first
* Gas production has increased, due to cost reduction (shale revolution), flexibility of generation and relatively less greenhouse gases (Europe with carbon marketplace)
* Wind and Solar production has increased, due to their cost reductions
[^7]
[^23]

##### Non-OECD markets
Non-OECD markets still have a lot of latent demand due to the need for electricity of their citizenry and growing industry, they hoover up any increase in production supply they can. They also need more base load production so coal is an attractive option.
[^7]
##### Traditional power plants
###### Further look at coal fired power plant commissioning and retirements
No new coal fired power stations have been commissioned in first world countries due to the economics of new builds not making sense. Retirements are also increasing due to profit margins eroding.
China and India are still building coal plants because their energy markets are not at steady state. There is still latent demand to supply their citizenry with electricity and build up industry. This demand for new electricity base load capacity outstrips production capacity of other generating technologies and their market still needs extra base load capacity.
[^3]
###### Operating costs of existing Coal-fired power plants compared to new renewables
As solar and wind power costs have fallen, capacity additions have grown, reducing annual running hours for coal-fired power plants in many countries. For instance, between 2010 and 2020, the average capacity factor of Indian coal plants dropped from 78% to 53%. In the United States, they fell from around 65% in 2010 to between 38% and 41% in 2020. This was despite the US coal fleet declining by almost a third, from a peak of 318 GW in 2011 to 216 GW at the end of 2020. Given that coal-fired power plants have significant fixed O&M costs, reduced generation starts to significantly raise operating costs, further worsening the competitiveness of these coal plants.[^2]
[^2]
##### Cost of capital for energy projects
The change in risk can also be seen in the change in the cost of capital provided by the banking sector for energy projects.
[^9]
The sample data from LPC DealScan includes loan information on 12,072 loan deals between 2000 and 2020, involving 5,033 borrowers across 118 countries. ::The offshore and onshore wind data looks a bit weird/ Seems to be driven by Europe in the report::

#### Daily energy demand
Typical market demand for electricity.
[^4]
Because cheap solar generates power during the day, this reduces the power needed from other power plants reducing their profitability, or curtailment of PV is needed depending on the flexibility of the power grid. It causes the ‘Duck curve’ shown below.
[^4]
This also shows that PV generation doesn’t line up with the evening peak. The spikes in energy demand can be limited by solar plus storage by shifting some of the solar system’s output to evening and night hours peak. Because this is a regular short term pattern, storage of just 4 hours is beneficial.
[^18]

### Solar market
#### Market size
[^25]
Installations by geography
[^14]
[^15]
#### Technology type market share
[^13]
### Market segments
Installed capacity of Utility scale, Commercial, and Residential market segments and what we need for to get to in 2030 for Net Zero Emissions by 2050. That’s on average a 25% generation growth and an almost 3x increase in production capacity.
[^16]

### Competition comparison
#### Comparison metrics
* *Dollars per Watt ($/W)* - Used to measure capital costs compared to potential energy generation
* *Levelled Cost Of Energy (LCOE) ($/kWh)* - Calculates present value of the total cost of building and operating a power plant over an assumed lifetime divided by the energy generated. Allows comparison of cost to generate electricity of different technologies.[^1]
#### LCOE of different electricity production technologies in 2020
The cost of production will vary depending on geography and conditions present (eg. Gas source type, solar radiation, regulations etc). Without storage base load is supplied by Coal, Gas, and Nuclear.
[^8]
#### LCOE cost of low carbon technologies over time
[^2]
[^16]

#### Levelised Cost of Solar-plus-Storage (LCOSS)
[^6]
ITC is the US’s Federal Income Tax Credit.

## Product
### PV generation vs energy demand
How the peak of solar production lines up with energy demand peaks (estimated though time of use pricing). Battery storage can initially be used to reduce peak demand when prices are highest.
[^5]
### Technologies
Below is a graph of the different technologies best cells made in research
[^12]
[^25]
Silicon PV is the dominant technology due to cost and stability. Silicon PV has a physics based fundamental limit of around ~30% efficiency. Efficiencies beyond this are achieved by stacking multiple cells optimised for different wavelengths on top of each other.
The technology differences are found mostly in the cell. The different efficiencies predictions for technologies are shown below.
[^11]
How technology types have changed over time for silicon cell PV.
[^13]

## Cost analysis
### Solar electricity cost learning rate
[^28]

#### LCOE learning rate
[^27]
#### LCOE component learning rates
[^27]
### PV modules learning rate
For every doubling of Silicon PV cumulative PV module shipments, the cost reduces by 24%.
[^11]
It is difficult for new technologies to enter the market as they are competing against the whole market’s R&D for the standard technology and have to beat a 24% learning rate to stay competitive. Unless they have advantages which reduces cost further down the value chain (eg higher efficiency).
[^17]
[^25]

### Capital cost drivers
#### System costs
Below are the $/W of different types of installed PV systems and cost component make up over time.
[^6]
The difference between the markets seem to be fixed costs spread out over the larger installation in utility scale.

Material costs for PV systems
[^24]

#### Module costs
Module cost components by technology
[^18]

#### Solar plus battery costs
[^26]
Solar plus battery costs over time
[^6]
For the AC coupled system, approximately 30% of the reduction can be attributed to the Li-ion battery plus bidirectional inverter, and 4% to electrical and structural BOS; an additional 16% can be attributed to lower labor costs, and the final 49% is attributable to other soft costs, including PII, sales tax, overhead, and net profit.

### Operational cost drivers
#### PV operational costs
[^26]
Some of these operational costs can be reduce through further innovation (module cleaning, system inspection and monitoring, module replacement, inverter replacement, operations admin) other can’t (insurance, property tax, land lease) but all these costs/kWh are decreased by increasing the module efficiency.

Over time, a commodity’s price tend towards their marginal cost to produce. In PV’s case this is the operating cost as the inputs you get free from the sun.

#### PV plus storage operational costs

::This is key metric to track overtime to see if the hypothesis of electricity cost will tend towards zero::

## Value chain

### Raw Materials
* Silica
* Australia has the worlds largest Silica mine: [The precise world of silica - Australian Resources & Investment](https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2022/11/25/the-precise-world-of-silica/#:~:text=In%20far%20north%20Queensland%20%E2%80%93%20about,and%20other%20parts%20of%20Asia.)
* What is the breakdown by country of Silica mining?
#### Materials in the end product
[^13]
What the materials are used for.
[^13]
#### Other materials used in value chain
Other materials are used in manufacturing as shown on the Value chain diagram [[/Value chain]]
#### Investability
*Is it investable in the near term?* - Probably not
Possible that silica mining could be investable
* What will the demand increase of Silica be with the increase in solar? Is there an opportunity here is Silica miners to significantly increase their revenue?
* Other materials it is probably too small (should we check this?) an amount compared to their other use cases to get a significant increase in. Except maybe Silver? But this could be replaced eventually?
#### Companies
##### Private
##### Public

### Polysilicon foundry
Seems to be driven by electricity price as countries with cheap energy create polysilicon (Norway, Iceland). If Australia does become a cheap energy superpower with massive amounts of solar compared to other countries maybe it takes over these resource processing for high energy resources (also resources are here so cuts down on bulk shipping of ore). Cheap energy will be a decade off? So maybe too early to start investing in this now.
The below table includes all grades of silicon production, not just Solar grade silicon
[^29]
#### Investability
*Is it investable in the near term?* - No
Dominated by China and low electrical cost countries. Maybe if Australia because an energy powerhouse due to abundant solar resources - this is still quite a few years off as large scale solar needs to be installed.
#### Companies
##### Private
##### Public

### Manufacturing (Wafer, Cell, Module)
Demand comes from all over the world but the supply chain is has increasingly been dominated by China.
[^20]
How production has changed over time by country
[^13]
[^13]

#### Manufacturing segments
Integrated companies tend to have better profit margins than companies that do parts of production
[^13]

#### Manufacturing equipment suppliers
Equipment used in production is increasingly being dominated by China
[^13]
[^13]
#### Manufacturing material suppliers
This is probably a small part of their business?
#### Investability
*Is it investable in the near term?* - No
It is estimated there needs to be a 3x increase in output per year to meet net zero targets by 2050[^22]. This part of the value chain is dominated by China. They already have a large advantage of economies of scale and supply chains built out. China is non-investable for us. *A possibility is a technology that negates China’s supply chain advantages and has a significant efficiency advantage over the current technology (thin film silicon tandems?)*. The problem is you are up against the learning rate of the dominant technology.
Equipment suppliers - as the whole industry is in China, to survive you have to sell to China. The technology is copied and competitors quickly spring up. Myer Burger stopped being an equipment supplier and have vertically integrated to become a manufacturer.
#### Companies
##### Private
##### Public
* [First Solar](https://www.firstsolar.com) - leading thin film manufacturer - have survived with all production outside China
* [Meyer Burger Technology AG | Premium solar modules](https://www.meyerburger.com/en/)

### Wholesale distribution
#### Investability
*Is it investable in the near term?* - No
Lower barriers to entry, lots of competition.
#### Companies
##### Private
* [Solar Juice](https://solarjuice.com.au/)
##### Public

### Installation
Multiple orders of magnitude change in installed solar capacity is needed to take over the grid
#### Residential
Lower barriers to entry, lots of competition in the residential space.
What is the capacity of the rooves? 1/3 of Australian rooves have solar already!
#### Commercial
A lot of commercial rooves could put solar on
#### Utility
Largest of the 3 markets and most competitive in price of solar due to fixed costs spread across
#### Investability
*Is it investable in the near term?* - Maybe
Look at utility EPCs which are public - what are the estimated growth in installations?
#### Companies
##### Private
* [5B](https://5b.co/) - Innovative installation method for installing ground mounted panels
* [Rapid-deployment solar provider 5B aims to reduce construction risks with prefabricated tech](https://www.pv-tech.org/rapid-deployment-solar-provider-5b-aims-to-reduce-construction-risks-with-prefabricated-tech/)
##### Public
* EPCs

### Operation
There will be large growth in operating of solar power plants. Do they operators long term advantage over new entrants? Maybe they can spread their fixed costs over more plants with economies of scale? What about suppliers
#### Residential
There will be lots of competition in individual service and maintenance providers for solar systems
#### Commercial
#### Utility
#### Investability
*Is it investable in the near term?* - Maybe

#### Companies
##### Private
* [Solar analytics](https://www.solaranalytics.com.au/) - Solar monitoring system
##### Public
* [Genex](https://genexpower.com.au/) - building renewable energy assets around Australia

### Transmission
* Grid
* High Voltage
* What about long distance DC lines? What are the pros an cons of this? Can you actually ‘pipe’ energy from high solar irradiance to lower irradiance areas and make it cost effective? (Eg. Northern Africa to Europe?)
#### Investability
*Is it investable in the near term?* - ?
Look at utility EPCs which are public - what are the estimated growth in installations?
#### Companies
##### Private
* [Solar analytics](https://www.solaranalytics.com.au/) - Solar monitoring system
##### Public

### Energy market
Are there market makers? Don’t really know how this works.
#### Investability
*Is it investable in the near term?* - ?
Look at utility EPCs which are public - what are the estimated growth in installations?
#### Companies
##### Private
##### Public

### Retailer
Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are an interesting development. Do they have a similar model as Uber, where they are capital light (home owner pays for the installation) and they skim some profit when they sell back to the grid. This would be an advantage over incumbents.
#### Investability
*Is it investable in the near term?* - Maybe
Look at utility EPCs which are public - what are the estimated growth in installations?
#### Companies
##### Private
* VPPs
* [Amber Electric](https://www.amber.com.au/) - time of use power pricing including smarts around batteries
##### Public
* VPPs
* [Tesla Energy Plan | Tesla Australia](https://www.tesla.com/en_au/tep)
### End use
Cheap electricity - what is this going to enable? Put his in its own note: [[Thesis: Marginal cost of electricity will approach zero]].

### Recycling
Materials in modules aren’t very expensive so there will probably not be that much money in recycling.
#### Investability
*Is it investable in the near term?* - No
#### Companies
##### Private
##### Public

## Risks
* Are the energy markets compentive markets or monopolies run by the energy companies, if so do the energy companies keep all the profits?
* Long term storage? Degredation over time in the battery - need to understand this.
* [Mark Mills: The energy transition delusion: inescapable mineral realities](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgOEGKDVvsg) - risk due to mineral demand

## Maintenance due diligence
/Track to see if what you expected to happen is happening/
Metrics

## References
[^1]: [Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)](https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/08/f25/LCOE.pdf) - US Department of Energy
[^2]: [Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/Jun/IRENA_Power_Generation_Costs_2020.pdf) - IRENA
[^3]: [Boom And Bust Coal 2022](https://globalenergymonitor.org/report/boom-and-bust-coal-2022/) - Global Energy Monitor
[^4]: [Introducing the shark curve](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/introducing-the-shark-curve) - Green Tech Media
[^5]: [Renewables: The True Costs](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Articles/2017/Jul/Bonn-Uni-Lecture--True-costs-of-renewables.pdf?la=en&hash=B7DD1720455A1ED042094C007D8B8C74F274AAFC) - IRENA
[^6]: [U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmark: Q1 2020](https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77324.pdf) - NREL
[^7]: [Electricity production by source](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-prod-source-stacked?country=~OECD+%28BP%29) - Our World in Data
[^8]: [Projected costs of generating electricity 2020](https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ae17da3d-e8a5-4163-a3ec-2e6fb0b5677d/Projected-Costs-of-Generating-Electricity-2020.pdf) - International Energy Agency
[^9]: [The energy transition and changing financing costs](https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-02/The-energy-transition-and-changing-financing-costs.pdf) - Oxford Sustainable Finance Group
[^10]: [Electric Power Generation, Transmission, And Distribution Global Market Report 2022](https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5515144/electric-power-generation-transmission-and?utm_source=GNOM&utm_medium=PressRelease&utm_code=cxx24l&utm_campaign=1669549+-+Global+Electric+Power+Generation%2c+Transmission+and+Distribution+Market+Forecast+to+Reach+%245%2c932+Billion+in+2026+at+a+CAGR+of+7.6%25&utm_exec=cari18prd) - Research and markets
[^11]: [International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) 2022](https://www.vdma.org/international-technology-roadmap-photovoltaic) - VDMA
[^12]: [Best Research-Cell Efficiency Chart | Photovoltaic Research](https://www.nrel.gov/pv/cell-efficiency.html) - NREL
[^13]: [Special report on solar PV global supply chains](https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/d2ee601d-6b1a-4cd2-a0e8-db02dc64332c/SpecialReportonSolarPVGlobalSupplyChains.pdf) - IEA
[^14]: [Solar - 10 Predictions for 2022](https://about.bnef.com/blog/solar-10-predictions-for-2022/) - BloombergNEF
[^15]: [Solar PV – Analysis](https://www.iea.org/reports/solar-pv) - IEA
[^16]: [Scaling up solar in ISA member countries](https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/BNEF-Scaling-Up-Solar-in-ISA-Member-Countries_FINAL.pdf) - BloombergNEF
[^17]: [From Laboratory to Production: Learning Models of Efficiency and Manufacturing Cost of Industrial Crystalline Silicon and Thin-Film Photovoltaic Technologies](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328242035_From_Laboratory_to_Production_Learning_Models_of_Efficiency_and_Manufacturing_Cost_of_Industrial_Crystalline_Silicon_and_Thin-Film_Photovoltaic_Technologies)
[^18]: [The International Supply Chain and Manufacturing Costs for Photovoltaic Modules, and Project Economics of Systems including storage](https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73948.pdf) - NREL
[^19]: [Solar-Plus-Storage Analysis | Solar Market Research and Analysis | NREL](https://www.nrel.gov/solar/market-research-analysis/solar-plus-storage-analysis.html)
[^20]: [Energy Technology Perspectives 2023](https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a86b480e-2b03-4e25-bae1-da1395e0b620/EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2023.pdf) - IEA
[^21]: [Electricity Mix - Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix)
[^22]: [Global Energy Perspective 2022](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Oil%20and%20Gas/Our%20Insights/Global%20Energy%20Perspective%202022/Global-Energy-Perspective-2022-Executive-Summary.pdf) - McKinsey & Company
[^23]: [Solar Market Insight Report 2022 Q4](https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2022-q4) - Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA)
[^24]: [Expanding the photovoltaic supply chain in the United States: opportunities and challenges](https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73363.pdf)
[^25]: [Photovoltaics Report](https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf) - Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, ISE
[^26]: [U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmark: Q1 2022](https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/83586.pdf)
[^27]: [Levelized cost-based learning analysis of utility-scale wind and solar in the United States](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004222006496) - Science Direct
[^28]: [Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap (2020)](https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/) – Ramez Naam
[^29]: [Mineral Commodity Summary - 2022](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-silicon.pdf) - US Geological Survey
[^30]: [Global Solar Atlas](https://globalsolaratlas.info/map?c=8.667918,13.183594,3&s=-16.636192,59.765625&m=site)

## Further Reading
[From Laboratory to Production: Learning Models of Efficiency and Manufacturing Cost of Industrial Crystalline Silicon and Thin-Film Photovoltaic Technologies | IEEE Journals & Magazine | IEEE Xplore](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8490238)
[Evaluating the economic viability of CdTe/CIS and CIGS/CIS tandem photovoltaic modules - Nanayakkara - 2017 - Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications - Wiley Online Library](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/pip.2849)