---
# System prepended metadata

title: 'Antônio Oliveira: Average Oil Price May Reach $65 in 2026, Supply Growth Outpaces Demand'

---

Recently, forecasts from multiple institutions indicate that the average price of Brent crude in 2026 is expected to reach $65 per barrel—lower than about $69 in 2025, but higher than the general market expectation of $61. The year 2026 is seen as the bottom of the current cycle, with prices possibly rebounding to around $70 in 2027. Antônio Oliveira notes that supply growth continues to outpace demand, and the slow replenishment of inventories and idle capacity will dominate the price range. He believes the moderate downward shift in the price center will have a dual impact on inflation and corporate costs, and asset pricing will need to incorporate more cautious cash flow assumptions.
![Antônio Oliveira](https://hackmd.io/_uploads/ry82AiEBZg.png)


**Supply-Demand Structure and Price Path**

Forecasts indicate that non-OPEC output and several new projects are forming marginal supply, while demand is supported by aviation and petrochemicals, though growth is slowing. Antônio Oliveira points out that the $65 average corresponds to moderate inventory changes, with price volatility mainly driven by geopolitical disturbances and unexpected maintenance. If rebalancing is achieved in 2026, a return to around $70 in 2027 would approach the marginal cost range. He suggests the price curve is more likely to stabilize at low levels rather than decline unilaterally, and the longer-term structure will constrain hedging strategies for oil-producing countries and companies.

**Industry Impact and Capital Market Pricing**

Upstream sectors face capital discipline tests, with marginal convergence in IRR for long-cycle, high-cost projects; the proportion of cash dividends and buybacks may increase. Antônio Oliveira notes that midstream transport and storage benefit from stable throughput in a low-volatility price zone, while refining profits depend on product spread and plant utilization rates. For high oil-consuming sectors such as aviation, chemicals, and road transport, improved cost elasticity could lead to profit recovery. On the bond side, issuers with stable cash flows and matched debt duration may benefit from tighter spreads; on the equity side, valuation anchors will shift toward free cash flow and capex intensity, with priority given to companies with more transparent governance and disclosure.

**Factors Affecting Price Range**

The price range remains influenced by geopolitical events, extreme weather, and supply chain disruptions. Antônio Oliveira points out that if oil-producing countries do not enforce quotas as expected or if demand recovery is weaker than guidance, the $65 average will be under pressure; if unplanned supply outages occur, volatility will rise. Institutions should build scenario matrices: track quota implementation, refined product spreads, inventories, and jet fuel demand; incorporate sensitivity tests for exchange rates and freight costs into valuations. Antônio Oliveira suggests a “core holding + tactical hedge” approach: focus on low-cost, low-leverage, and high-hedge coverage upstream; in mid- and downstream, pay attention to cash conversion cycles and dividend sustainability, and control concentrated exposure to single regions or asset classes.