![image](https://hackmd.io/_uploads/H1R_qkBHWl.png) A user-friendly guide to Baozi’s Solana prediction markets—how pool payouts work, how Race markets differ from YES/NO, and how creators use Labs, Private tables, and affiliate links to grow communities. Prediction markets usually get explained like “trading.” Charts, order books, buyers vs sellers, someone always trying to outsmart the spread. Baozi feels different for one simple reason: You’re not trading against people. You’re joining a pool. That mental model makes everything else click—odds, payouts, and why communities can run their own markets without needing market makers to keep things alive. 1. ## The Baozi mental model: pools, not order books In an order-book market, you need someone on the other side of your trade. In Baozi, you pick an outcome and deposit it into that outcome’s pool. Here’s what that means in practice: * As more people join an outcome, that pool grows. * The “odds” are basically the current split between pools. * When the event resolves, the winning side splits the total pot. Simple payout intuition (no math headache) Imagine a YES/NO market ends like this: YES pool: 40 SOL NO pool: 60 SOL Total pot: 100 SOL The correct answer is YES If you contributed 4 SOL to YES, and the final YES pool is 40 SOL, then you own 10% of the YES pool. So you receive 10% of the total pot → 10 SOL. That’s the whole game: Your payout = your share of the winning pool × the total pot 2. ## Mainnet vs devnet (and why it doesn’t change how Baozi works) Mechanically, mainnet and devnet behave the same: * connect wallet * choose a market * pick an outcome * sign a transaction * wait for resolution * get paid out if you’re right The only difference is what’s at stake: * Devnet SOL isn’t real value * Mainnet uses real SOL So treat devnet like a practice arena, and mainnet like the real table. 3. ## What you can do inside Baozi (the product surface) Baozi is organized like a prediction app, not a trader terminal. Inside the app you’ll see areas like: * Official Markets * Categories (Sports, Culture, Macro, Crypto, Politics… more coming) * Points * Labs & Community * Private Invite * Affiliate 1% * Creator Hub * Arcade * Insights This structure matters because it maps to real user behavior: * casual users browse categories * communities want Labs experimentation * private groups want invite-only tables * creators want distribution and monetization hooks 4. ## YES/NO markets: the fastest way to understand Baozi YES/NO markets are the on-ramp because the question is easy to read: “**Will X happen by Y time?**” “**Will outcome A be confirmed?**” “**Will this reach a threshold?**” A clean way to decide before you enter 1. Before staking anything, ask yourself: 1. Is the question unambiguous? 1. Can it be resolved from public sources? 1. Is there enough time left before resolution? 1. Is the pool size healthy enough to care? 1. Would I still feel okay about this if I’m wrong? If any of those feel sketchy, skip it. There will always be another market. Practical pool reading (how people actually win) Most users don’t “predict” like prophets. They do one of these: * **Value hunting:** this side is underpriced for how likely it is * **Narrative timing:** the crowd is early or late, and I disagree * **Clarity bias:** clean rules and clean resolution give you an edge 5. ## Race markets: better for real-world competitions Some events don’t fit YES/NO. A fight. An election with multiple candidates. A tournament bracket. A list of outcomes. That’s where Race markets shine. Instead of two sides, you get multiple outcomes like: Team A Team B Team C Team D ### Why Race markets feel “real” They’re best when outcomes are: * mutually exclusive (only one can win) * easy to verify * complete (no missing “other” option that breaks resolution) ### How payouts work in Race Race payouts work the same as YES/NO: * each outcome has its own pool * you own a share of the pool you joined * if your outcome wins, you receive your share of the total pot 5. ## Resolution and payouts: what “on-chain settlement” means in practice When a market resolves, **[Baozi](https://baozi.ooo/overview)** doesn’t need to “pay you manually.” Settlement is handled by the protocol: * the losing pools flow into the total pot * winners receive proportional payouts based on their share So instead of “cashing out through a book,” your win is simply: The market resolves and the protocol distributes funds. 7. ## Labs and Private tables: where communities become the product Public markets are great for discovery. But communities are where prediction markets become sticky. Labs and Community markets Labs are where groups can run markets around their niche: * a crypto community running weekly catalysts * a sports group predicting cards, knockouts, winners * a culture group forecasting awards and releases It becomes experimentation plus identity: a place where your community’s signal gets recorded. ## Private Invite tables Private tables are for: * invite-only groups * higher-signal rooms * internal competitions * friends-only markets (less noise, more honesty) **Private rooms support a simple truth:** Sometimes the best predictions happen when you’re not performing for the crowd. 8. ## Affiliate 1%: distribution built into the core loop Most apps bolt on affiliates as an afterthought. Baozi puts it directly in navigation because prediction markets are naturally shareable: * post a market link * explain your thesis * let your audience join * earn a small cut tied to real participation If you’re a creator, this is the clean loop: Content → Market link → Participation → Earnings → More content It’s not traffic for traffic’s sake. It's a measurable action. 9. ## Why Solana-style UX matters (speed and tiny fees) Prediction markets go mainstream when they feel like a normal app: * fast confirmation * tiny fees * transparent settlement * no “wait 20 minutes and pray” energy Solana’s low fees and fast confirmations support that kind of consumer flow. 10. ## A simple checklist before you enter any market Use this every time: * Clear wording (no ambiguity) * Verifiable resolution source * Enough time left * Healthy pool * Jurisdiction and legality check * Only risk what you’re willing to lose Prediction markets are powerful, but they’re not magic. Clear rules and clean resolutions are everything. Try **[Baozi](https://baozi.ooo)** and join the community If you want to learn fastest: 1. start with a YES/NO market 1. place a small position 1. watch how pool sizes move 1. follow it through to resolution 1. repeat That loop teaches you more than any theory post.